Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Forecast remains on track for numerous thunderstorms to develop
along and southeast of Interstate 44 this afternoon and evening.
Conditions are supportive of very large damaging hail and locally
damaging winds especially with early day storms. A tornadic risk
may also develop with the more sustained cellular but low level
shear values are shown to decrease this afternoon before
increasing again by early evening. Storm mode may largely impact
tornadic potential. Updated forecast made minor adjustment to
thunderstorm chances and included mention of severe potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A cold front will be near Interstate 44 by the start of this
period, and will accelerate southeast through the evening hours.
Storm coverage and intensity will lessen with time this evening,
with most of the activity exiting the area by midnight.

Cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for Friday
with some lingering cloudiness at least through the morning. A
brief warmup will occur Saturday ahead of the next cold front due
to arrive Saturday night and early Sunday morning. A few showers
will be possible Saturday night across parts of southeast
Oklahoma, but rainfall amounts look to remain on the light side.

Cooler temperatures will return Sunday and Monday, with a freeze
possible in some places Monday morning. The return of south winds
will bring a quick warmup Tuesday ahead of the next storm system
that may affect the area by next Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Showers and storms currently expanding along the Interstate 44
corridor and will impact the NE OK terminals. Thunderstorm
coverage will increase and expand eastward through the afternoon
through mid evening w/ corresponding flight impacts. Storms end
from northwest to southeast as a cold front passes. MVFR ceilings
expected to develop by the cold front late tonight and persist
through Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  46  63  42 /  60  20   0   0
FSM   79  53  66  44 /  90  90   0   0
MLC   78  49  64  43 /  90  70   0  10
BVO   78  44  63  38 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   78  46  60  38 /  90  70   0   0
BYV   77  46  59  39 /  90  70   0   0
MKO   78  48  63  41 /  80  60   0   0
MIO   77  45  60  39 /  60  30   0   0
F10   78  47  63  43 /  80  50   0   0
HHW   78  53  66  46 /  80  80  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
926 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
926 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late morning into Afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and southeast of Interstate 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms will develop from late morning into the
early afternoon and increase in coverage from mid afternoon through
early evening. Areas southeast of Interstate 44 will have the
highest chances for severe weather, including the potential for
very large damaging hail and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy
rainfall is likely primarily across southeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas with a limited risk of flash flooding.
Thunderstorms will end from northwest to southeast this
evening as a cold front sweep across the region.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY through WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet weather will prevail Friday into next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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