Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Light winds and cool temperatures presently across the area, but
a second surge of cooler Canadian air is approaching through the
Central Plains. Result will be a notable increase in north winds
later this morning across northwest OK and northwest AR, and
eventually across southeast OK later this afternoon. Later
arrival of cooler airmass across southern areas will result in a
decent spread in high temps this afternoon, from mid 60s to mid
80s with very low humidity once again. Grassland fire spread
potential will significantly increase and a fire danger statement
will cover the entire CWA this afternoon and evening highlighting
the dry frontal passage as fine fuels become increasingly
receptive.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Winds decrease this evening as Canadian sfc high begins to settle
over the region, eventually trending toward light and variable at
least along the OK/KS border and more sheltered valley areas. The
cool and dry airmass will result in the first freeze of the
season, most likely confined to the northern-most OK counties
along with much of northwest AR, where a Freeze Warning remains in
effect for tonight. There is at least a low probability of
freezing temps a bit farther south, and into sheltered valleys of
southeast OK, but this can be further evaluated. Frost potential
will be somewhat mitigated by dry air and continuation of north
winds in many areas.

Dry weather with slowly warming temperatures are expected through
the end of the week with large surface high covering the eastern
CONUS. Eventually later in the week the high will shift far
enough east to allow increase in south winds, likely accompanied
by a continuation in low humidity as any moisture return from the
Gulf will be slowed by the strong south push of the Canadian
high. This brings about additional fire weather concerns as we get
even further removed from the most recent significant rainfall.
By this same time, an upper low is forecast to become cut off
over the southwest states before potentially ejecting east next
week. Uncertainty remains high with the timing and eventual track,
so it remains to be seen how much, if any, drought relief this
may offer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty north to
northeasterly winds remain expected from late morning through the
afternoon, following a cold frontal passage today. Gusts will
subside early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  34  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   78  40  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   80  38  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  27  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  29  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   65  35  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  35  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   64  30  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
F10   76  35  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   83  43  67  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for OKZ054>058-
     063.

AR...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-002-
     010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
454 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
454 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Morning.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Elevated fire weather danger is expected this afternoon for much
of the area due to gusty north winds and low humidity. A dry cold
front will move through northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
later this morning, then across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
North winds gusting around 30 mph and humidity in the 20 to 25
percent range will lead to potential for rapid grassland fire
spread.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Breezy to windy conditions will again develop late in the week as
a storm system stalls to our west. Warming temperatures and persistent
drought conditions will elevate fire weather concerns Thursday
and Friday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.