Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Tulsa, OK

649 
WGUS74 KTSA 111347
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
847 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

OKC091-101-111530-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-240811T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-
847 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH 
COUNTIES...

At 847 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated that rainfall rates were 
dropping across the warned area, but flooding is ongoing. Rain rates 
between 1 and 1.5 inches per hour are occurring, with rain total 
estimates between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding 
is already occurring based on reports from spotters.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Muskogee...                        Oktaha...
Taft...                            Boynton...
Council Hill...                    Rentiesville...
Keefeton...                        Wainwright...
Summit...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3568 9571 3580 9549 3580 9546 3580 9545
      3580 9544 3580 9543 3580 9542 3581 9540
      3581 9529 3581 9528 3544 9535 3556 9571

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Lacy

004 
WGUS74 KTSA 111529
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1029 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

OKC091-101-111539-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-240811T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-
1029 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR 
NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH COUNTIES...
...FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 345 PM CDT...

The heavy rain rates from earlier this morning have ended, but rain 
continues to fall over the warned area. Rainfall totals between 4 
and 8 inches since midnight have resulted in some flooding, and this 
flooding is expected to continue for several more hours before 
waters recede. Please continue to heed road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3568 9571 3580 9549 3580 9546 3580 9545
      3580 9544 3580 9543 3580 9542 3581 9540
      3581 9529 3581 9528 3544 9535 3556 9571

$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have steadily increased early this
morning across western and central Oklahoma, a trend that will
continue through the morning as they also shift eastward. Heavy
rainfall remains the main concern today, with current mesoanalysis
showing 2 inch precipitable water values across much of eastern
Oklahoma and instability levels supporting thunderstorms. With
widespread rainfall and plenty of cloud cover today, expect well
below normal high temperatures, along with a southwest to
northeast oriented gradient in them based on the timing of the
showers/storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Another round of evening and overnight thunderstorms are expected
tonight into early Monday morning, focused across the northern
half of the forecast area. Locally heavy rain remains a concern,
with the axis shifted north and east of where it should be during
the day today.

Upper level high pressure will expand across the forecast area
Monday and into mid week, forcing the main precipitation chances
the north and bringing heat and humidity back to the region. Dew
points should be high - well into the 70s - during this period
due to the rainfall expected today and tonight and combined with
above normal air temperatures, will lead to dangerous heat index
values for much of next week. Heat headlines should be expected,
including potential for warnings.

An upper level trough moving through the central United States
Thursday and into Friday will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms and also potential for slightly cooler
temperatures. Any kind of minor cooldown looks to be short-lived,
however, as the ridge expands northward for the weekend, with
temperatures increasing accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Periodic RA/TSRA impacts- MVFR cigs and vsbys are expected at all
sites into early afternoon at all sites. This activity will shift
east of the TAF sites at that time. Additional PROB30 groups will
be added to the AR sites after 08z, and will include MVFR cigs
and vsby restrictions. Outside of TSRA impacts, VFR TAF elements
will prevail at all sites during the valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  73  93  75 /  90  50  20  10
FSM   83  71  92  74 /  60  20  30   0
MLC   85  74  95  75 /  70  20  20   0
BVO   80  69  92  70 /  80  50  20  20
FYV   80  67  89  70 /  80  50  50  10
BYV   79  66  89  69 /  70  60  60  10
MKO   82  71  92  73 /  80  40  30  10
MIO   79  68  90  69 /  70  80  40  20
F10   85  72  93  74 /  90  30  20   0
HHW   92  73  96  75 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across areas
along and north of Interstate 40, with a more widespread complex
of thunderstorms in western and central Oklahoma. This complex is
expected to move eastward through the morning and early afternoon
hours, with a heavy rain and localized flooding threat. One to two
inch rainfall amounts will be common, with isolated totals to
three inches.

Additional thunderstorms are expected tonight and into early
Monday across the northern half of the area. The overall heavy
rain threat tonight should focus in far northeast Oklahoma and
into northwest Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning across parts
of northeast and east central Oklahoma, as well as northwest and
west central Arkansas. The ongoing heavy rain threat will continue
through midday Monday, especially in northwest Arkansas. Monday
night and into Tuesday, the bulk of the overnight thunderstorms
should be to the north in Kansas and Missouri, although the
southern edge may brush parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

Upper level high pressure will build back into the region for the
early to middle part of the work week, with hot and humid
conditions developing as a result. Expect a multi-day period of
dangerous heat index values and heat headlines this coming week.

An upper level storm system in the central United States toward
the end of the work week will bring low thunderstorm chances to
the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.