Tornado Warning 45, NWS Topeka, KS

509 
WWUS53 KTOP 290218
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
918 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

KSC139-290230-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-240629T0230Z/
Osage-
918 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY...

At 918 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located southeast of Melvern, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Osage County.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 160 and 167.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 9567 3849 9565 3851 9551 3843 9551
      3843 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 285DEG 17KT 3847 9559 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

$$

Reese

228 
WWUS53 KTOP 290225
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
925 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

KSC139-290235-
/O.EXP.KTOP.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-240629T0230Z/
Osage-
925 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
930 PM CDT...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for east central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 9567 3849 9565 3851 9551 3843 9551
      3843 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 285DEG 17KT 3846 9556 

$$

Reese

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
256 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues until 7pm for portions of central and east
central KS, with heat indices around 105 degrees.

- Isolated thunderstorms in northeast KS late this afternoon into
this evening could be severe with damaging wind, hail, a tornado,
and brief heavy rain all possible.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible towards central KS after
midnight tonight with damaging wind, although confidence is lower in
this scenario.

- Up and down temperatures with off and on thunderstorm chances
  for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Surface cold front has started to move into north central KS early
this afternoon, with the associated trough axis stretching up
through eastern NE and western IA. 19Z water vapor imagery shows the
upper low spinning well north of us in eastern MT. Meanwhile, gusty
southerly winds and a slowly weakening LLJ have been pumping low-
level warmth and moisture into the area today. Subsidence behind
this morning's system has allowed skies to clear with heat indices
already in the low 100s in a few locations, so will keep the Heat
Advisory going until 7pm.

The main focus revolves around this evening's storm chances and
associated severe weather potential. The latest guidance suggests
that storms look rather isolated late this afternoon into this
evening with upper support being displaced well north of the area,
but think this time frame presents the greater severe risk compared
to the next chance later tonight into the overnight hours. The
atmosphere should continue to become more unstable the rest of this
afternoon, with the higher dew points and therefore highest
instability (3000-4000+ J/kg) concentrated over far northeast KS.
Think 21-00Z is the main time frame to watch for initiation in this
same area where convergence along the frontal boundary should be the
strongest. This instability plus 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should
be sufficient for supercells. The tornado threat is more uncertain
and looks to be quite localized, as forecast soundings and
hodographs show the best low-level turning near the frontal boundary
with a noticeable decrease in low-level shear and SRH just a short
distance away from the boundary. However, this threat should not be
ignored as locations near the boundary should see the best lift.
Additionally, any storms that develop in this area during this time
could produce locally heavy rainfall with Pwat above 2". The
moisture axis looks to be focused in far eastern KS into MO for much
of this evening before being pushed south into Saturday morning.

The later evening hours should see a bit of a break before the next
possible round of thunderstorms. A cluster of storms looks to
develop in eastern CO and move through western KS, which could move
into portions of central KS overnight, although confidence is not
high on a widespread severe risk as CAMs largely show these
weakening as they move into our area. Western KS has a much more
well-mixed BL to support damaging wind in that environment, whereas
forecast soundings in north central KS become less supportive of
that potential as we get into the late night hours. Still, storms
that manage to maintain themselves as they move eastward could
present a damaging wind threat with locally heavy rainfall. Any
lingering storms should taper off throughout the morning hours
Saturday.

Will need to continue to monitor where the frontal boundary sets up
Saturday to delineate the areas for highest storm chances and
associated severe risks in the afternoon and evening. The trend
today has pushed the boundary a little further south, with much of
the guidance placing it just south of the CWA by mid to late
afternoon. Thinking locations along/south of I-35 are the main areas
to watch if the boundary were to set up further north than currently
forecast. Damaging wind and perhaps small hail would be the main
hazards with storms.

Outside of rain/storms, temperatures look much more manageable
through the weekend with highs in the 80s to near 90 Saturday, and
mid 70s to low 80s Sunday. Unfortunately, the heat does look to make
a return for the early part of the next work week as the upper ridge
to our south expands northward, resulting in hot and humid
conditions again for Monday and Tuesday. There are some periodic
thunderstorm chances in the meantime, although the best chances look
to be Tuesday night into Wednesday when the next front moves through
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

South/southwest winds will continue to gust to 20-30 kt at
times this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
Thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening look to be
isolated, so have opted to leave mention out of TAFs with
confidence in them impacting terminals being too low. However,
if one develops, there could be some brief heavy rain with all
severe hazards possible. Cold front moves through and shifts
winds to the north/northwest late this evening and overnight.
Much of the latest guidance has the next round of storms
weakening as it moves out of western KS, so confidence that
they'll make it this far east is even lower than the first
round. VFR conditions are forecast overall.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ058.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
259 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

KSZ008>012-020-023-024-026-039-040-056-059-292000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Pottawatomie-Jackson-
Jefferson-Shawnee-Douglas-Franklin-Anderson-
259 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Kansas, north
central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms could redevelop late this afternoon into the evening.
If they do they could be capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts,
and an isolated tornado. Any storm that forms will also be capable
of torrential rainfall.

Additional storms may move across western and into central Kansas
after midnight, bringing the threat for damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional storms could redevelop along and south of Interstate 35
Saturday late afternoon into the evening. These could also present
the threat for damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ021-022-034>038-054-055-058-292000-
Clay-Riley-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Lyon-Osage-Coffey-
259 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms could redevelop late this afternoon into the evening.
If they do they could be capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts,
and an isolated tornado. Any storm that forms will also be capable
of torrential rainfall.

Additional storms may move across western and into central Kansas
later in the evening, bringing the threat for damaging winds, hail,
and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional storms could redevelop along and south of Interstate 35
Saturday late afternoon into the evening. These could also present
the threat for damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
702 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NE Grandview Plaza    39.05N 96.76W
06/28/2024  M66 MPH          Geary              KS   ASOS

            KFRI ASOS gusted to 66 mph.

&&

IM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
707 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NE Grandview Plaza    39.05N 96.76W
06/28/2024  M75 MPH          Geary              KS   ASOS

            KFRI ASOS gusted to 75 mph.

&&

IM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
807 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     Funnel Cloud     1 NNE Admire            38.65N 96.10W
06/28/2024                   Lyon               KS   Dept of Highways

            KTA reporting funnel cloud over Admire near
            intersection of K-99 and US-56.

&&

IM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
819 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     Tornado          4 SSE Admire            38.59N 96.07W
06/28/2024                   Lyon               KS   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotters report tornado SE of
            Admire.

&&

IM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
827 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WNW Tecumseh          39.07N 95.62W
06/28/2024  M61 MPH          Shawnee            KS   ASOS

            KTOP ASOS gusted to 61 mph.

&&

IM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
832 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     Flash Flood      3 SW Junction City      39.00N 96.86W
06/28/2024                   Geary              KS   Trained Spotter

            Flash flooding still ongoing in Junction
            City. Over a foot of water reported on
            roadways and in parking lots.

&&

IM