Tornado Warning 32, NWS Topeka, KS

768 
WWUS53 KTOP 062310
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
610 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSC029-062319-
/O.CAN.KTOP.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-240506T2330Z/
Cloud-
610 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN CLOUD COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 9702 3934 9736 3940 9737 3968 9737
      3978 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 222DEG 23KT 3958 9734 

$$

KSC027-201-062330-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-240506T2330Z/
Washington-Clay-
610 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

At 609 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Vining, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Clifton, Morganville, Palmer, and Vining.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 9702 3934 9736 3940 9737 3968 9737
      3978 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 222DEG 23KT 3958 9734 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

ST

248 
WWUS53 KTOP 062323
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
623 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSC027-062332-
/O.CAN.KTOP.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-240506T2330Z/
Clay-
623 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9706 3957 9722 3958 9728 3967 9732
      3975 9728
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 222DEG 39KT 3968 9720 

$$

KSC201-062330-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-240506T2330Z/
Washington-
623 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...

At 622 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 4 miles northwest of Palmer, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Palmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9706 3957 9722 3958 9728 3967 9732
      3975 9728
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 222DEG 39KT 3968 9720 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

ST

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread severe storms still on track to impact the entire
 forecast area late this afternoon through early evening. All
 hazards, especially widespread damaging wind gusts are
 expected.

- Quiet and mild conditions return Tuesday onward, providing a
  much needed break in severe weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

No major changes made to the forecast as a very dynamic upper
trough axis is observed rotating through the western high
plains, progged to eject eastward by late afternoon into the
evening hours. Foci for initation lies along a north to south
oriented dryline boundary with a trailing cold front towards
far western Kansas. Increasing low level moisture ahead of the
boundary near a pseudo warm front is also of note as MLCAPE
values are quickly increasing above 2000 J/KG southwest of ICT.
In addition to the line or broken segment of storms progged to
enter the CWA after 21Z, concern is growing for the possibility
of isolated discrete supercells forming over south central to
east central KS before moving northeast in the 22Z-02Z time
frame. Based on the impressive environment and strong low level
SRH ahead of the dryline, all hazards, including very large hail
(2 inch +) and a strong tornado or two would be likely with any
discrete cells. The more likely scenario and hazard for this
event will be the line of storms that strengthens east into the
early evening hours as the mid level jet max ejects east into
the plains. Short term CAMS have remained consistent in timing
and evolution of a QLCS cluster, including possible storm
mergers along the leading edge that could further increase the
potential for brief, tornadoes. Strong effective bulk shear from
0-3 km and steep mid level lapse rates lend to high confidence
in 70+ mph winds being sustained with the line of storms, in
addition to hail around ping pong ball size and the weak
tornadoes that may form along the leading edge.

Severe storms along with the cold front exit the region by 06Z this
evening, bringing calmer and drier weather to the CWA from Tuesday
onward. There may be a brief wave that passes through the westerly
flow aloft Tuesday evening across far northern and eastern areas,
bringing possible light rain to the area, otherwise rain chances are
minimal throughout the week as the northern and southern stream jets
bypass the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered showers currently impacting KTOP/KFOE should exit by
18Z as southerly winds gradually increase from 15 to 20 kts
sustained by late afternoon. This should mix low MVFR cloud
bases up to near 2kft ahead of the front and line of TSRA that
will likely impact terminals west to east aft 23Z. Storms should
clear the area by 06Z as a drier airmass lifts cigs back to VFR
for the remainder of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
351 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-072100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
351 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 190 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe storms are likely this afternoon/evening. Hail up to three
inches in diameter, winds to 80 mph, a few strong tornadoes and
isolated flash flooding are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf