Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
645 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to Severe storms will be possible through the mid
  morning hours. The primary hazards will be damaging wind
  gusts, large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes.

- Wind Advisory in effect from the mid morning hours through 7
 PM.

- Below average temperatures expected by the end of the week.
  Overnight lows may drop into the lower to mid 30s Saturday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

An amplified upper level low was moving northeast across western KS
with a 95 KT H5 jet max rounding the upper low across central and
eastern KS. The dryline/Pacific front was located across central KS
and thunderstorms were developing along the front. So far the only
surface based QLCS is moving northeast into south central NE but
trailing convection along the front may intensify as it moves into
an environment with 1500-2000 J/KG of MUCAPE and strong effective
shear. The low-level shear and forecast hodographs are curved and if
any of the storms become surface based then the scattered storms
moving northeast towards the southern counties of the CWA may become
supercellular. But there is still a lot of uncertainty if any
discrete storms will become surface based for potential tornadic
supercells. At this time the line segments with QLCS features have
produced a few meso vortices on the north side of the rear
inflow jet. I'm leaning more towards line segments of convection
that may become surface based at times and produce damaging
wind and perhaps a few meso vortex tornadoes. If storms become
more discrete and become supercells, then large hail, damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible.

The upper low will lift northeast into eastern NE and the
dryline/Pacific front will shift east of the CWA during the mid
morning hours bringing an end to any severe thunderstorms.

during the mid morning hours the southwest winds will increase to 25
to 35 MPH with some gusts to 45 MPH and will continue through the
morning but will diminish near sunset. A few strong thunderstorms
may develop across the northern counties of the CWA. These storms
will be higher based pulse type storms, that could produce
stronger wind gusts.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday
night into Thursday morning as an upper trough digs southeast across
the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Strong low-level CAA
will cause a cold front to move southeast across the area late
Wednesday night into thursday, which could cause a chance for
showers and thunderstorms.

This upper trough will amplify across the northeast US and
cause a broad surface ridge of high pressure to build southward
across the Plains Friday into Saturday. Highs on Saturday will
only reach into the 50s. We may see a freeze and/or frost
Saturday night with lows in the lower 30s across the western and
northern counties and mid 30s across the remainder of the area.

A broad upper ridge will shift east into the Plains by the middle
and end of next week, causing high temperatures to warm back into
the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Storms have cleared the KMHK terminal. There may be more that
develop later today but too much variability in the location of
storms later this afternoon to include. KTOP/KFOE terminal area
storms clear over the next hour or two. The forecast is mainly
wind driven after these storms exit the region with SSW winds
increasing and lasting through the first half of the period.
Winds veer to a more westerly direction this evening but remain
gusty.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
342 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KSZ008>011-170845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-
342 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 114 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Kansas and
northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning across
the tornado watch area through 7 AM.

A wind advisory is in effect from the mid morning hours through this
afternoon.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-170845-
Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-
Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-
Coffey-Anderson-
342 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through 10 AM this
morning.

A wind advisory is in effect from the mid morning hours through this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
631 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KSZ037-038-054-161200-
Wabaunsee-Lyon-Morris-
631 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MORRIS...CENTRAL
WABAUNSEE AND NORTHWESTERN LYON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 AM CDT...

At 631 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Bushong, moving northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...Strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Council Grove, Alma, Eskridge, Maple Hill, McFarland, Paxico,
Bushong, Dunlap, and Keene.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 327 and 345.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for east central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3865 9653 3917 9624 3908 9595 3901 9595
      3856 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 1131Z 209DEG 64KT 3871 9636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Flanagan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
636 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 AM     Tornado          Richland                38.88N 95.54W
04/16/2024                   Shawnee            KS   Storm Chaser

            Storm chaser reported a tornado as it passed
            through Richland.

&&

Flanagan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
723 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Overbrook               38.78N 95.56W
04/16/2024                   Osage              KS   Emergency Mngr

            Storm damage reported in Overbrook area by
            EM. Time estimated from radar.

&&

kc

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>