Severe Thunderstorm Warning 339, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong gusty winds continue through today ahead of severe storms
expected later this afternoon into the evening.

- There may be a few isolated showers and storms develop into midday
ahead of the cold front over north central into central Kansas.
These aren't expected to become severe if they do develop.

- Severe storms later this afternoon and evening will likely be in
the form of a line of storms. Damaging wind is the primary threat
probably in excess of 60-70 mph, large hail over quarter size may
also be possible. The threat of tornadoes is also a concern which
are expected to be primarily in the form of QLCS tornadoes which
would form along the primary line of storms.

- Another storm system may set up by the weekend bringing more
showers and storms to the region with several inches of much needed
rainfall possible. Some areas could see 3-5 inches as it looks right
now through the weekend into early next week. Cooler temperatures
are higher certainty with this pattern which would suggest the
probability for additional severe weather is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Across the CONUS early this morning, WV imagery shows an expansive
anticyclone anchored over the southeastern states with a highly
amplified mid to upper level trough over the Intermountain West with
trough axis extending into the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a
strong pressure gradient is still in place across the forecast area
which is leading to gusty winds at this hour and likely to continue
into this morning before relaxing slightly but still gusty in
advance of the storm system moving through later tonight. An area of
low pressure is starting to organize over the southwestern KS
vicinity in advance of the upper trough moving steadily east.

For today, the western trough continues to be the primary feature of
interest that will bring severe weather to the area later this
afternoon into this evening before quickly moving through the area
overnight. Impressive wind fields are in place already and look to
only become more impressive as the upper trough emerges from the the
central Rockies later this afternoon. Lee troughing is currently
responsible for increase moisture flux into the area with dewpoints
over central and north-central KS now above 60 degrees. As the upper
trough advances east, the baroclinic zone will sharpen and the low
pressure will deepen. Steep midlevel lapse rates in concert with
surface heating will allow for destabilization to take shape with
little inhibition in place by mid to late afternoon along the
frontal boundary over north central Kansas. Expectation is storms
will form and quickly become severe. Due to the parallel flow of the
mean wind being mostly along the boundary, do expect that storms
will interact and grow upscale fairly quickly. Thus the hail threat
should remain with any line embedded supercells and more of a wind
threat will likely take shape. Could see winds mix to the surface in
excess of 70 mph as the line of storms move through. Due to the
intense SRH with the environmental winds and the LLJ just above the
surface reaching up to 60kts, could be looking at few line embedded
QLCS tornadoes that may become intense and last longer than is
typical with QLCS type tornadoes. Hodographs certainly look
impressive and elongated most into the early evening hours. Flooding
appears to be an overall low threat as the antecedent conditions are
not in place. But, if the line is slow then a few spots may develop
localized flash flooding concerns. What still remains in question is
the amount of pre-frontal stratus and or showers and storms over
eastern Kansas that sets up today and remains into the afternoon.
The storm system appears to have plenty of energy to work with so
not thinking if pre-frontal stratus/storms do occur that it would
change the scenario over western areas, but it could impact the
overall intensity of the line as it advances east.

Fall weather returns behind the front with a couple of cooler days
before more active weather returns to the area. Cluster analysis
suggests that another trough now to the west of British Columbia
sets over over the western CONUS with southwest flow over the
central Plains with several opportunities for shortwaves to eject
across the area providing a mechanism for ascent with sufficient
moisture to produce mostly beneficial rainfall off and on across the
region. Some could see anywhere from 3-5 inches over the period from
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected outside of tsra through 21Z,
exception will be MHK where MVFR cigs and vsbys with tsra are
expected. Main frontal boundary will move through MHK by 20Z
with a shift to the northwest. WInds gusty from the south at
18-20kts with gusts to 35kts ahead of the cold front. The winds
then decrease to around 12-14kts with gusts to 20kts behind the
cold front. Winds shift to the northwest at TOP and FOE
expected sometime between 23Z-00Z. MVFR cigs and some ifr cigs
are expected in the wake of the cold front becoming vfr in the
09Z-12Z time period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
535 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-311045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
535 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible mainly late this afternoon through
this evening. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes are all
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
842 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ020-034-301415-
Cloud-Ottawa-
842 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND CLOUD
COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM CDT...

At 842 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Ada, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down twigs or small limbs and blow
         around objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects and
         vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Concordia, Minneapolis, Miltonvale, Delphos, Aurora, and Ada.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3961 9768 3943 9737 3938 9737 3904 9778
      3913 9793 3915 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1342Z 215DEG 44KT 3917 9781

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
911 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ008-009-301445-
Republic-Washington-
911 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL REPUBLIC AND
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM CDT...

At 910 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Haddam, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to outdoor objects and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Morrowville, Haddam, Agenda, and Hollenberg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9686 3961 9729 3973 9748 4000 9725
TIME...MOT...LOC 1410Z 217DEG 46KT 3976 9731

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

NG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1020 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ008-020-034-301545-
Republic-Cloud-Ottawa-
1020 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT OTTAWA...SOUTHWESTERN REPUBLIC
AND CLOUD COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 AM CDT...

At 1019 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Ada, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Concordia, Minneapolis, Miltonvale, Glasco, Delphos, Tescott,
Jamestown, Culver, Aurora, and Ada.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 9793 3948 9737 3943 9737 3896 9772
      3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1519Z 211DEG 51KT 3921 9784

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

NG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1038 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ008-009-020-021-301615-
Republic-Clay-Cloud-Washington-
1038 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN REPUBLIC...SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND NORTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTIES
THROUGH 1115 AM CDT...

At 1037 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Norway, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville, Clyde, Clifton, Cuba, Morrowville, Norway, Haddam,
Munden, Narka, Agenda, and Vining.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9750 3981 9708 3947 9737 3969 9783
      4000 9758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1537Z 215DEG 42KT 3967 9768

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Griesemer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1153 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

KSZ009-010-021>023-301730-
Clay-Pottawatomie-Riley-Washington-Marshall-
1153 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN RILEY...
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN CLAY
AND SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1153 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Wakefield, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clay Center, Blue Rapids, Wakefield, Riley, Waterville, Leonardville,
Randolph, Barnes, and Green.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 9687 3965 9641 3922 9690 3922 9696
      3917 9696 3915 9698 3930 9717
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 218DEG 50KT 3932 9702

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Griesemer