Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- As a cold front slows across northeast Kansas, a series of impulses
  trigger scattered storms this morning through the evening
  hours. A few of these storms may produce gusty winds to around
  50 mph and locally heavy rainfall.

- Heat indices from 100 to 103 are expected this afternoon along
  and south of I-35.

- Below normal temperatures settle in Wednesday onward, followed
  by precip chances returning this weekend.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Series of embedded perturbations noted withing the quasi-westerly
flow aloft across the central plains region this morning. The
strongest impulse over western Kansas has developed a cluster of
convection while more scattered activity is developing upstream into
north central Kansas, in proximity to the 850 mb front where
isentropic ascent along the 310-320K surfaces is gradually
increasing through sunrise. Despite variances in short term guidance
on the evolution of this activity, models and observations are
consistent in ample MUCAPE and effective shear values up to 35 kts
to sustain activity as the shortwave trough slides eastward into
eastern Kansas later today. The depth of the wave is not
particularly strong so there is some uncertainty on the coverage of
precipitation during the morning period. Nevertheless, it seems
prudent to maintain low chance pops as activity should become more
isolated in the afternoon. Redevelopment of convection is possible
along the h85 boundary by late afternoon as SFC cape surges above
4000 J/KG with little to no inhibition. Effective shear is fairly
weak and lapse rates are not too impressive so would believe
coverage to be isolated at best. Updrafts may be capable of strong
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Additionally, another shortwave trough is
progged to slide southeast this evening, developing a cluster of
storms across southern NE. These storms may impact north central
areas this evening, producing severe wind gusts and hail. Activity
gradually weakens overnight while another round of showers and
storms focuses across southern Kansas and northern Kansas. In
collaboration with our southern neighbors, opted to keep slight pops
this evening, however latest guidance would support better forcing
near the front being south of the CWA with much of the area being
dry overnight.

The cooler airmass arrives Wednesday morning as gusty northeast
winds in the afternoon bring high temperatures down to the lower and
middle 80s. Dry, cool, and mostly sunny conditions reign through
Friday. Abnormally cool sfc high pressure continues to spread
southwestward this weekend as a southward moving upper low increases
cloud cover, storm chances, and reinforcing cooler air with highs
around 80 and lows in the low 60s through early next week. Timing of
the upper trough is somewhat similar between GFS and EC ensembles of
highest pops on Saturday evening however, precip chances may linger
into next week as ridging over the southeast CONUS may slow the
progression of the upper low away from the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR at terminals with focus being on the passing FROPA and
increasing scattered TSRA developing over western KS, reaching
terminals aft 10Z. Maintained the TEMPO mention, even though
latest guidance is trending less in coverage of storms and may
be slightly further north of sites as well. Winds veer to the
northeast aft 15Z around 10 kts through the afternoon. Models
hint at the possibility for isolated TSRA redeveloping aft 22Z
near KTOP/KFOE. Will monitor trends and consider mentioning at
next issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
314 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-170815-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
314 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered storms are likely this morning with additional development
possible through the afternoon. A few storms may be strong to severe
with wind gusts up to 60 mph being the main hazard.

Additional severe storms may move into north central Kansas this
evening. These storms would be capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
359 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

KSZ008-009-020-021-160945-
Republic-Clay-Cloud-Washington-
359 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN REPUBLIC...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN CLAY AND CLOUD COUNTIES THROUGH
445 AM CDT...

At 359 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Vining, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down twigs or small limbs and blow
         around objects. Minor damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Concordia, Clyde, Clifton, Linn, Greenleaf, Jamestown, Palmer,
Agenda, Aurora, and Vining.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for
north central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9793 3979 9699 3957 9692 3957 9696
      3951 9696 3938 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0859Z 259DEG 20KT 3965 9730

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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