Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread severe storms still on track to impact the entire
 forecast area late this afternoon through early evening. All
 hazards, especially widespread damaging wind gusts are
 expected.

- Quiet and mild conditions return Tuesday onward, providing a
  much needed break in severe weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

No major changes made to the forecast as a very dynamic upper
trough axis is observed rotating through the western high
plains, progged to eject eastward by late afternoon into the
evening hours. Foci for initation lies along a north to south
oriented dryline boundary with a trailing cold front towards
far western Kansas. Increasing low level moisture ahead of the
boundary near a pseudo warm front is also of note as MLCAPE
values are quickly increasing above 2000 J/KG southwest of ICT.
In addition to the line or broken segment of storms progged to
enter the CWA after 21Z, concern is growing for the possibility
of isolated discrete supercells forming over south central to
east central KS before moving northeast in the 22Z-02Z time
frame. Based on the impressive environment and strong low level
SRH ahead of the dryline, all hazards, including very large hail
(2 inch +) and a strong tornado or two would be likely with any
discrete cells. The more likely scenario and hazard for this
event will be the line of storms that strengthens east into the
early evening hours as the mid level jet max ejects east into
the plains. Short term CAMS have remained consistent in timing
and evolution of a QLCS cluster, including possible storm
mergers along the leading edge that could further increase the
potential for brief, tornadoes. Strong effective bulk shear from
0-3 km and steep mid level lapse rates lend to high confidence
in 70+ mph winds being sustained with the line of storms, in
addition to hail around ping pong ball size and the weak
tornadoes that may form along the leading edge.

Severe storms along with the cold front exit the region by 06Z this
evening, bringing calmer and drier weather to the CWA from Tuesday
onward. There may be a brief wave that passes through the westerly
flow aloft Tuesday evening across far northern and eastern areas,
bringing possible light rain to the area, otherwise rain chances are
minimal throughout the week as the northern and southern stream jets
bypass the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered showers currently impacting KTOP/KFOE should exit by
18Z as southerly winds gradually increase from 15 to 20 kts
sustained by late afternoon. This should mix low MVFR cloud
bases up to near 2kft ahead of the front and line of TSRA that
will likely impact terminals west to east aft 23Z. Storms should
clear the area by 06Z as a drier airmass lifts cigs back to VFR
for the remainder of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
351 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-072100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
351 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 190 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe storms are likely this afternoon/evening. Hail up to three
inches in diameter, winds to 80 mph, a few strong tornadoes and
isolated flash flooding are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
845 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ009-010-020-021-034-035-070215-
Clay-Cloud-Dickinson-Washington-Ottawa-Marshall-
845 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON...
OTTAWA...WASHINGTON...CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD AND NORTHWESTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 844 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles southeast of Morrowville to near
Miltonvale to Culver. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down twigs or small limbs and blow
         around objects. Hail damage to outdoor objects and
         vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clay Center, Minneapolis, Washington, Clyde, Hanover, Bennington,
Clifton, Miltonvale, Linn, Greenleaf, Morganville, Barnes,
Morrowville, Culver, Wells, Palmer, Manchester, Longford, Vining, and
Oak Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central,
north central and northeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3997 9665 3904 9735 3896 9757 3896 9785
      3934 9759 3985 9722
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 245DEG 48KT 3982 9712 3936 9747 3896 9775

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

101

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
858 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     Hail             4 E Riley               39.30N 96.76W
05/06/2024  M2.75 Inch       Riley              KS   Emergency Mngr

&&

SMB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
907 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ009-010-021-022-034-035-070245-
Clay-Dickinson-Riley-Washington-Ottawa-Marshall-
907 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN RILEY...EASTERN OTTAWA...EASTERN WASHINGTON...CLAY AND
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 907 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles northeast of Washington to 3 miles west
of Idana to 5 miles south of Bennington. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down twigs or small limbs and blow
         around objects. Hail damage to outdoor objects and
         vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clay Center, Marysville, Washington, Hanover, Waterville, Bennington,
Linn, Greenleaf, Morganville, Barnes, Green, Palmer, Manchester,
Longford, Oketo, Oak Hill, Niles, Talmage, Idana, and Bremen.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 270.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central,
north central and northeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3945 9693 3893 9729 3892 9738 3896 9737
      3896 9766 3931 9744 3931 9737 3941 9737
      3992 9704 3997 9654
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 254DEG 35KT 3988 9701 3937 9733 3896 9761

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

101

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
915 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ055-056-058-059-070300-
Coffey-Franklin-Osage-Anderson-
915 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND COFFEY COUNTIES
THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...

At 915 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Waverly to 10 miles south of Gridley.
Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Waverly, Williamsburg, New Strawn, Gridley, Westphalia,
Beto Junction, John Redmond Reservoir, Harris, and Le Roy.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 156 and 182.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for east central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 9596 3845 9571 3857 9551 3857 9528
      3804 9552 3804 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 220DEG 45KT 3843 9559 3796 9591

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Reese

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
917 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     Hail             2 W Olsburg             39.43N 96.65W
05/06/2024  E1.00 Inch       Pottawatomie       KS   Trained Spotter

&&

SMB