Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
225 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
evening hours tonight across portions of Southwest, Central, and
North Central Montana, with showers and thunderstorms lingering
into the morning hours on Wednesday across Central and North
Central Montana. A few thunderstorms through the evening hours
could become severe and produce damaging winds and large hail,
with the highest chance of seeing these storms existing over
Central and North Central Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through tonight...primary concern through the early to
mid-evening hours tonight (i.e. 6-9PM MDT) will be the threat for
large hail and damaging winds; particularly northeast of a Townsend,
to Helena, to Lincoln, to Browning line where a 15-30% chance of
seeing damaging winds and/or large hail exists. Additionally, a
marginal risk (i.e. 5% chance) for excessive rainfall leading to
flash flooding exists northeast of a Bozeman to Boulder line, with
the primary concern for flash flooding being confined to recent burn
scars given their lowered flash flooding values. Latest NBM
probabilities for rainfall supports a 60% or greater chance for
0.25" north of a Kings Hill Pass to Bowman Corner line through 12z
Wednesday, with generally a 30-60% chance of 0.5" or greater across
these same areas. Showers and general thunderstorms will linger
beyond the main severe thunderstorm threat window, especially
northeast of a Kings Hill Pass to Bowman Corner line, through the
morning hours on Wednesday. - Moldan

Wednesday through next Tuesday...Precipitation lingers into
Wednesday morning as we transition into northwest flow aloft. A cold
front Wednesday will bring another round of scattered showers and
storms during the afternoon, but not to the intensity of Tuesday's
storms. The upper level low to our northeast in Canada, will help
usher in cooler air for Wednesday and Thursday. This will drop
temperatures to 10-20 degrees below normal. The upper level low also
continues to wrap moisture around it into the region, so another
round of precipitation is forecasted for Thursday.

Daily rounds of precipitation is still forecasted through the
beginning of next week, as upper level trough returns to the
Northwest U.S Friday and through the forecast period. Though,
this will bring southwesterly flow aloft and help temperatures
gradually warm up back to close to seasonal averages for the
beginning of next week. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
06/18Z TAF Period

The first concern for today will be for showers and thunderstorms
developing this afternoon, spreading east and northeastward with
time through the late afternoon and evening. Gusty winds, hail, and
lightning are the main concerns with stronger thunderstorms. Then,
sub-VFR ceilings move in from the north overnight across the plains,
with additional showers and isolated thunderstorms around through
the morning tomorrow across Central and North-central Montana.
Mountains will be obscured across North-central and portions of
Central Montana from late tonight into tomorrow. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  63  50  68 / 100  80  30  20
CTB  50  61  46  66 / 100  90  40  20
HLN  58  74  53  73 /  70  70  20  30
BZN  52  79  49  72 /  50  50  30  20
WYS  42  76  42  73 /  30  30  30  20
DLN  49  78  46  72 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  55  68  48  71 /  90  70  20  10
LWT  53  63  43  64 /  90  90  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
506 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2024

MTZ320-326-330-062345-
Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains MT-
Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains MT-
Gallatin Valley MT-
506 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GALLATIN COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 506 PM MDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm over Bozeman, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bozeman and Belgrade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4560 11117 4582 11121 4588 11080 4559 11080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 266DEG 36KT 4568 11111

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
512 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2024

MTZ301-302-070000-
East Glacier Park Region MT-Northern High Plains MT-
512 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GLACIER COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 511 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 27
miles north of West Glacier, or 48 miles north of Evergreen, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Many Glacier, Babb, Goat Haunt, and Logan Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building and off
mountain peaks if possible.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight MDT for
north central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4899 11324 4859 11366 4864 11375 4873 11371
      4878 11377 4882 11376 4884 11378 4885 11391
      4882 11395 4883 11400 4886 11400 4889 11406
      4891 11401 4894 11403 4900 11395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 308DEG 19KT 4890 11394

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ludwig

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