High Wind Warning 6, NWS Great Falls, MT

567 
WWUS75 KTFX 090809
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
209 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

MTZ301>303-307-308-100000-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-240410T0000Z/
East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier,
Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Southern High Plains-
Including the following locations: Dupuyer, Bynum, Browning,
Santa Rita, Babb, Kiowa, Heart Butte, Saint Mary, Pendroy, East
Glacier Park, Marias Pass, Choteau, Logan Pass, Ethridge, Rogers
Pass, and Cut Bank
209 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts mostly up to 65 mph, but 
  gusts to 80 mph possible along the immediate eastern slopes of the 
  Rocky Mountain Front.

* WHERE...The Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent foothills and 
  plains, and Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and damage property. 
  Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles 
  and those pulling trailers. Periods of blowing snow may also cause 
  reduced visibility over mountain passes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Two distinct periods of strong and gusty 
  winds are expected through today, with a brief reduction in winds 
  in between them during the mid- to late-morning hours. The first 
  period will continue through the early morning hours as mountain 
  waves move east off of the Rocky Mountain Front. The second period 
  will occur during the afternoon hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

SC

252 
WWUS75 KTFX 092039
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
239 PM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

MTZ301>303-307-308-092145-
/O.CAN.KTFX.HW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-240410T0000Z/
East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier,
Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Southern High Plains-
Including the following locations: Babb, Heart Butte, Dupuyer,
Bynum, Ethridge, Pendroy, Choteau, Marias Pass, Santa Rita,
Rogers Pass, Cut Bank, Kiowa, Saint Mary, Logan Pass, East
Glacier Park, and Browning
239 PM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have weakened across the area and are no longer expected to 
pose a threat to life or property.

$$

Ludwig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
831 PM MDT Mon Apr 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today, warmer and drier weather is forecast. Tonight, strong
gusty winds begin to develop across The North and South Rocky
Mountain Front and the adjacent plains. In that area, High Winds
are possible tomorrow. Additionally, some mostly mountain moisture
falls across portions of north central, central and southwest
Montana into Wednesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes to the current forecast for tonight. Strong winds are
still possible along the front range of the Rockies and in the Cut
Bank area, but current thinking is that most areas will generally
be below warning criteria. However, some 00z guidance might come
in with slight stronger winds, so midnight shift will take another
look about possibly changing the high wind watch to a warning.
Scattered rain/snow showers develop along the divide tonight, then
spread over Central/Southwest MT on Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
830 PM MDT Mon Apr 8 2024 (09/00Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions will occur this evening, but do expect increasing
clouds overnight. Rain/snow develops along the divide, with a few
rain/snow showers on Tuesday over Central and Southwest MT.
Overall, VFR conditions expected at most terminal sites through
the period. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times along the
Rocky Mountain Front and across Southwest MT. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM MDT Mon Apr 8 2024/

Note: The forecast area for the National Weather Service Great
Falls Weather Forecast Office includes north central, central and
southwest Montana.

Today and Tomorrow...Monday, an upper level ridge begins to build
into the region, favoring warming and drying conditions. An upper
level trof entering the Canadian west coast, removes mass from
the ridge, and a strong cross-barrier flow develops across The
Continental Divide. The National Blend of Models (NBM) v4.2,
continues to include Cut Bank in an area of 78% probability to
experience Maximum Wind Gusts of >= 48KT/55 mph. Having said this,
northwesterly winds dominate the H700 wind component forecast. A
westerly to west southwesterly wind component would be more
preferred for a high wind setup. Mountain Wave is forecast under
the period of mountain top stability. If we reach High Wind
criteria, I believe that said criteria will be reached with
sustained wind speeds at Cut Bank during the Tuesday afternoon
hours. Due to Meteorologist low confidence in an imminent High
Wind event, I've chosen to continue the High Wind Watch, with the
associated language that High Winds are "possible" across The N/S
Rocky Mountain Front and the adjacent Hi-Line area. The afore
mentioned trofing passing across the upper level ridge, allows
some mountain snow, and some rain (rain/snow) to fall at lower
elevations.
- Fogleman

Wednesday through Thursday...Ensemble clusters are in good
agreement with the H500 ridge axis shifting east from over the
Pacific Northwest and Western Canada (on Wednesday) to the
Northern Rockies (through Thursday afternoon/evening). This will
place the Northern Rockies beneath northwesterly flow, both at the
surface and aloft, on Wednesday which will help to maintain
isolated to scattered rain/snow showers across much of Central and
North Central Montana through afternoon hours. High temperatures
on Wednesday will be near normal across all of Southwest through
North Central Montana, with readings rebounding back above normal
on Thursday as the upper level ridge moves overhead and surface
winds back to the south to southwest. While much of the day on
Thursday will be dry, Pacific moisture advecting northeast ahead
of the next disturbance during the evening and overnight hours
will bring increasing chances for rain and/or snow along
predominately the Continental Divide.

Friday through next Monday...ensemble cluster begin to diverge at
the end of the work week and through the weekend with respect to the
evolution of longwave troughing moving over the Western CONUS and
Canada, with a large degree of uncertainty arising in the position
and/or timing of the trough and overall amplitude. This will
ultimately affect how warm/cool temperatures are to the end of the
work week and through the weekend, with the temperature spreads
between 25th and 75th percentiles in the NBM ranging from 15 degrees
on Friday, to 25 degrees on Saturday, to 18 degrees on Sunday at
Great Falls. Additionally, these uncertainties will impact the
placement and timing of precipitation, but an overall increase in
precipitation chances can be expected across the Northern Rockies
over this timeframe. - Moldan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  56  33  52 /  10  20  40  10
CTB  36  52  29  50 /   0  10  20   0
HLN  36  56  34  56 /  10  40  30  10
BZN  28  54  30  53 /  10  60  30   0
WYS  20  43  19  47 /   0  60  30   0
DLN  30  52  29  55 /  10  30   0   0
HVR  35  59  32  53 /   0  20  40   0
LWT  29  49  29  45 /   0  40  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Tuesday
afternoon for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western
Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls