Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
912 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

Overall forecast is on track with breezy southerly flow bringing
warm moist air north ahead of the advancing squall line currently
moving through the Florida Panhandle. Potential for a few strong
to severe storms exists with damaging winds and an isolated
tornado/waterspout possible as the line of storms moves southeast
across the area this afternoon and evening. Will continue to
monitor trends for any updates/adjustments, but at this time
forecast looks good with no changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 912 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail through today with southeast
to south winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to near 40
knots. A line of showers and thunderstorms will move southeast
across the TAF sites during the mid-late afternoon and evening
hours causing some IFR/local LIFR conditions along with the
possibility of some stronger wind gusts. Convection moves out by
midnight tonight with VFR conditions returning and west to
northwest winds diminishing to 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 424 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

On tab for today, we are anticipating an active weather day as a
potent low pressure system will be moving across Eastern U.S. over
the next 24 hours. The associated cold front will move through
our region today. As primary threats with this event we are
anticipating the potential for some strong to severe storms with
an isolated tornado/waterspout possible and damaging wind gusts,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The Severe Weather
Outlook from SPC remains without significant changes, the Nature
Coast Area is highlighted with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of
severe storms possible with the front while the rest of the area
remains in a Slight Risk (level 2/5), and Marginal Risk (level
1/5) across Lee County. In addition, we are monitoring water
levels for the potential for a surge/coastal flood event with the
strong onshore flow behind the front. As a result, a Coastal Flood
Warning have been issued from Sarasota county northward and a
Coastal Flood Statement for Charlotte and Lee counties.

On Wednesday, winds will begin to decrease and a drier high pressure
settles back over the area bringing cooler temperatures and rain-
free conditions. Behind the system on Wednesday morning, lows fall
into the low 40s north to the mid 50s south with highs in the 60s to
around 70 until Thursday. A chance for showers and storms returns
for the end of the week into the weekend as the remnant boundary to
the south lifts back north over the area ahead of the next system
bringing a humid warm airmass. Friday highs are forecast to reach
the lower 80s and then cool behind the next front into the 60s on
Saturday.

In summary, windy and gusty conditions will prevail today, along
with warmer and more humid air and potential for severe weather
during the afternoon hours. Daytime highs will reach the mid 70s
north to lower 80s central and south. We encourage residents and
visitors to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts and
remain weather aware. Better conditions tomorrow. Late in the
week the next system approaches with another round of showers and
thunderstorms developing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 424 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

A line of thunderstorms is expected to move across the local
waters today during the afternoon and evening hours. Southerly
winds will continue breezy and gusty ahead of the system and
gradually shift to southwesterly and westerly this afternoon and
tonight. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all zones through
tonight followed by Small Craft Advisory tonight and tomorrow.
Elevated winds will diminish on Wednesday, with seas diminishing
slowly after mid week. High surf risk and high risk of rip
currents will remain at least until Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 424 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

Gusty southerly  winds today will lead to high dispersion values.
No additional fire weather concerns as a cold front moves through
the region with high rain chances and keeps minimum relative
humidity values well above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  56  65  51 /  90  50   0   0
FMY  79  60  71  55 /  50  70   0   0
GIF  80  52  66  47 /  80  70   0   0
SRQ  77  57  67  51 /  90  60   0   0
BKV  79  50  64  44 /  90  40   0   0
SPG  72  57  63  54 /  90  50   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Zayas
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Wynn

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
115 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Highpoint           27.92N 82.71W
01/09/2024  M60 MPH          Pinellas           FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 1446W Largo Fire Rescue
            Station 40.

&&