River Flood Warning 9, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
226 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024
Very little change to overall forecast philosophy for the next 24 to
36 hours as Tropical Storm Debby, which is currently just west of
the Dry Tortugas, is expected to track off the west coast of Florida
today and tonight nearly paralleling the coast, and strengthening as
it does. Forecast landfall is projected by NHC to be along the Big
Bend of Florida as a Cat 1 hurricane on Monday. Conditions across
west central and southwest Florida will continue to deteriorate
through the day from south to north as bands of showers and
isolated thunderstorms associated with Debby spread over the
region. The majority of the precip shield is expected to be in the
form of showers, however an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible in a few stronger bands, and weak surface heating over
the interior this afternoon may generate additional areas of
stronger convection.

Highest winds and heaviest precipitation totals are expected to
occur near the coast...with greatest impact expected across the
northern nature coast which will be in the closest proximity to the
center when the storm is expected to be at its strongest prior to
landfall. See local tropical products for specific regional impacts
expected with Debby across the forecast area and a list of active
watches/warnings at the end of this product. Also see related
tropical products issued from this office for additional
information.

As Debby exits the area Monday night and Tuesday, broad southwest
flow will persist off the Gulf of Mexico with feeder
bands/convergent boundaries feeding into the storm to the north.
This will create a significant risk for bands of locally heavy rain
to set-up across portions of the forecast areas with potential for
training convection creating locally excessive rainfall amounts.
The storm is expected to substantially slow it's forward motion
off the southeast Georgia coast...and the risk for these type of
bands of heavy rainfall may persist into Wednesday and possibly
into Thursday.

High degree of uncertainty in the extended portion of the forecast
since much will depend on the eventual track of Debby after it lifts
north of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Conditions will deteriorate today with ESE winds gusting (if not
sustained) to tropical-storm force. This is most likely at coastal
sites like KSRQ, KPIE, and KTPA, but will be possible at any
terminal. The highest winds should be expected with passing
convective bands of moderate intensity or higher, and could be
higher than explicitly forecast in TAFs at this time. As
convection becomes widespread, MVFR will prevail, and tempo IFR
conditions will also be possible. Given the tropical, warm-core
nature of the system, there should be very few embedded
thunderstorms. While SWFL terminals could start to see some
improvement around or after 0Z, most terminals are not looking at
meaningful improvement before Monday morning. Slow improvement
should take place thereafter, with a wet pattern potentially
lingering for the days to come.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024
As Tropical Storm Debby approaches and tracks just west of the
waters today and tonight, conditions will continue to deteriorate
with increasing winds and significant building of seas. Hazardous
marine conditions are expected to develop which will persist into
Monday. Winds and seas will gradually subside Monday night and
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  78  86  80 / 100  80  90  80
FMY  86  80  89  80 / 100  80  70  50
GIF  87  78  87  79 / 100  70  80  50
SRQ  86  79  89  80 / 100  80  90  80
BKV  87  77  87  78 / 100  80  90  80
SPG  86  82  89  83 / 100  80  90  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-
     Sumter.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland
     Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-
     Sumter.

     Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     Pinellas.

     Tropical Storm Watch for DeSoto-Hardee-Inland Charlotte-Inland
     Lee-Polk.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Levy-Inland Levy.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood
     to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
942 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 AM     Tropical Cyclone 1 S Whitfield           27.40N 82.57W
08/04/2024                   Manatee            FL   ASOS

            ASOS station KSRQ Sarasota Bradenton 45 mph
            gust.

&&

TBW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
944 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     Tropical Cyclone 2 ENE Saint Petersburg  27.77N 82.63W
08/04/2024                   Pinellas           FL   ASOS

            ASOS station KSPG St Petersburg - Albert
            Whitted 54 MPH gust.

&&

TBW