Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
325 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

1. Hurricane Milton continues moving northeast into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon as a potentially catastrophic and
devastating category 4 hurricane. The current forecast track
brings it ashore tonight along the stretch of coastline between
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, continuing northeast across the
state through Thursday morning before exiting into the Atlantic
during the afternoon. Milton has the potential to be one of the
most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.

2. Extremely life-threatening storm surge along the west Florida
coast is expected, with storm surge inundation of up to 9 to 13
feet above normally dry ground. Highest surge values will be
sensitive to Milton's ultimate track and where it crosses the
coast, and will occur along and to the right of Milton's track. It
should be noted that locations to the left of Milton's track will
experience strong offshore flow which will likely result in
blowout tide or negative surge conditions, where water is notably
lower than normal. The bottom line is that anyone located within
an evacuation zone under evacuation orders or who has been ordered
to evacuate otherwise should follow the guidance of local
authorities and leave if told to do so. It's a decision that could
save your life.

3. Destructive and life-threatening winds are expected along the
coast as well as areas further inland, as interaction between
Milton and a jet streak and a frontal boundary to the north will
lead to a rather large expansion of the storm's overall wind
field. In particular, hurricane force winds to the north of the
center are likely to expand, exposing areas along and north of the
track that may not experience the catastrophic storm surge threat
to destructive winds with gusts well in excess of 100 mph
possible in some locations.

4. Milton will bring heavy rainfall to the entire area as it moves
across the state, with rainfall totaling 6 to 12 inches likely
with isolated totals up to 18 inches possible. This will present a
significant flash flood threat through Thursday which has
resulted in WPC issuing a High Risk for today and tonight,
indicating the potential for widespread flash flooding posing a
significant life-threatening conditions. Greatest threat is
expected along and to the north of Milton track under where the
heaviest rainfall axis is expected, generally along the I-4
corridor and northward into parts of the Nature Coast.
Additionally, ensuing river and stream flooding is likely to
result in area rivers reaching Moderate and Major to potentially
historic flood stages over the coming days as rainfall drains
through area basins.

5. An increasing tornado threat will accompany Milton's approach
this afternoon and evening as outer bands overspread southern and
central locations. A tornado watch for everyone expect Levy and
Citrus County. We have already see multiple destructive tornadoes
across our southern CWA.

6. Time for preparation is over. It cannot be stressed enough to
please follow the guidance of local authorities and evacuate if
told to do so, as it may ultimately prove to be life- saving.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Areas of MVFR ceilings in rain with some local IFR conditions in
heavier showers and thunderstorms will continue through the TAF
forecast period. Easterly winds will gradually increase through
the day with tropical storm force winds by this evening with some
gusts to hurricane force possible. Conditions will improve through
the day Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Hazardous and life-threatening boating conditions will propagate
into the Gulf waters today through Thursday as Hurricane Milton
approaches and moves across the waters. Boaters are strongly
advised to avoid the waters today and Thursday. Residual seas
will remain elevated with lingering breezy northerly winds
through the end of the work week before slowly diminishing during
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Deteriorating conditions throughout the day today as Hurricane
Milton approaches from the Gulf and moves across the area tonight
into Thursday. Drier weather and quieter conditions settle into the
area in Milton's wake, with breezy north to northeast winds
persisting into the weekend before diminishing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  84  69  83 / 100  60  10   0
FMY  78  86  73  85 /  70  40  10  10
GIF  75  83  71  83 / 100  80  30  10
SRQ  79  84  71  84 /  90  40  10   0
BKV  77  82  67  82 / 100  70  20  10
SPG  76  82  72  84 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-
     Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Lee-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Hurricane Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...RDavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
150 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     Tornado          2 NNW Page Park-Pine Ma 26.60N 81.88W
10/09/2024                   Lee                FL   Public

            Social media video and images showing
            tornado damage to homes near Colonial Blvd
            and Orangewood Ave.

1220 PM     Tornado          2 SW Fort Myers         26.61N 81.88W
10/09/2024                   Lee                FL   Public

            Social media videos of tornado and damage
            near SE area of Fort Myers Country Club.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
206 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Tornado          4 ESE Archbold          27.17N 81.28W
10/09/2024                   Highlands          FL   Trained Spotter

            Video and images of large wedge tornado on
            the ground moving NNE near Placid Lakes near
            State Rd 70 and US 27.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
212 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     Tornado          6 SE Archbold           27.13N 81.28W
10/09/2024                   Highlands          FL   Public

            Pictures of large tornado near Brighton.

&&