Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
259 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...Flood Watch in Effect for Charlotte and Lee Counties through
Thursday Evening...

.DISCUSSION...
The pattern aloft over the region this afternoon features troughing
from the southeast extending over Florida and ridging centered to
the southeast of the state. Flow in between these features remains
out of the southwest, helping to transport a deep plume of tropical
moisture over the peninsula and generally keeping Florida within a
favorable region for divergence aloft. At the surface, a boundary
remains stalled across northern Florida, with a weak disturbance
trying to form along it. This whole setup has led to widespread
showers with embedded thunderstorms, mainly from just north of I-4
southward, with more scattered convection to the north. For the rest
of today, the highest rainfall totals should continue to be over
this same region and then for tonight, hi-res guidance continues to
show a period of lower coverage before picking back up again late
tonight into early tomorrow morning. Highest rainfall totals have so
far been mainly over Lee County (5 inches or so) with a few other
areas seeing 2-4 inches in some training and then 1-3 inches
elsewhere. The potential remains to see another 1 to 3 inches
through today, and this will likely continue to cause some localized
flooding in these areas. The rest of the region should be able to
handle the rain given how dry it has been, and if we do get a bit of
a break tonight, that will help even more. However, this is all
dependent on where the heaviest rain falls and in what timeframe, so
things could certainly change as far as the Flood Watch, which
remains in effect for Charlotte and Lee Counties through at least
Thursday evening.

The forecast does not change a whole lot through the rest of the
week and into the weekend, with the highest rain chances continuing
for the southern half of the area. Event rainfall totals could end
up being over a foot or higher for some locations over southwest
Florida and likely much closer toward the Nature Coast. This heavy
rainfall and possible flooding will continue to be the main issue
over the next several days, and conditions will have to be closely
monitored for possible watches or warnings, especially with multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall expected to impact the same locations over
the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Numerous showers with some embedded thunderstorms continue across
the region this afternoon, with some higher wind gusts along with
MVFR or lower conditions expected periodically. Model guidance
continues to suggest a short break in the heavier rainfall for part
of tonight, then additional widespread rainfall is expected for
Wednesday. Similar to today, cigs and vsbys will likely go VFR
outside of activity, but timing could still be rather tough to
pin down.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical moisture will continue to lift north over the region, with
southwest to south winds continuing. Multiple rounds of showers with
embedded thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week,
with winds and seas higher near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Numerous to widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms will
continue through the next several days as deep tropical moisture
continues over the region. No fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  78  87 /  70  80  80  80
FMY  76  85  76  86 /  90 100  90 100
GIF  76  87  75  88 /  60  80  70  80
SRQ  77  86  76  89 /  80  90  90  90
BKV  72  88  72  91 /  60  80  70  80
SPG  80  86  80  89 /  70  90  80  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Lee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

05/Carlisle