Tornado Warning 46, NWS Tallahassee, FL

978 
WWUS52 KTAE 102128 RRA
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
428 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

FLC131-102145-
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-240410T2145Z/
Walton FL-
428 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTY...

At 428 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Santa Rosa Beach, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Walton County, including the following locations...
Point Washington, Gulf Pines, Freeport, Bunker, Grayton Beach, Blue
Mountain Beach, Sandestin, Miramar Beach, and Four Mile Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3040 8639 3038 8633 3042 8631 3039 8626
      3040 8623 3041 8623 3038 8617 3038 8612
      3039 8611 3042 8614 3043 8612 3044 8616
      3047 8613 3046 8619 3048 8620 3055 8607
      3041 8599 3038 8600 3031 8619 3037 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 246DEG 15KT 3038 8622 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

16-WORSTER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
416 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Near: A large mid-upper trough will continue progressing across the
southeast with an attendant surface low currently situated over
western MS. This low should begin occluding to the northeast through
the remainder of today. Southeasterly flow is persisting and will
continue through the duration of the event advecting deep moisture
across the area. As the low occludes, a cold front will extend into
the CWA and serve as the primary forcing mechanism for storms
beginning this afternoon lasting through tomorrow afternoon. Two
rounds of severe are possible with this setup with the first being
the QLCS propagating toward our area and the second occurring
Thursday morning through the afternoon.

For the first part of this system beginning momentarily, the low-
level jet will continue strengthening as the upper trough amplifies
with 850mb winds reaching 70+kts. This will increase bulk shear
substantially across the area with values reaching 60-70kts out of
the west-southwest. Notably large looping hodographs are evident
across the area with high SRH nearing 400m2s2, perhaps higher
locally if surface winds remain out of the southeast. The main
caveat with this setup is instability with MLCAPE values seemingly
struggling to reach 500J/kg as a result of cooler midlevels. Sine
cloud breaks are evident, indicating that instability could rebound
somewhat ahead of the line. Regardless, a high-shear low-CAPE event
appears likely as low-level streamwiseness of the hodographs (0-3km)
is quite textbook, resulting in a tornado threat for the majority of
the area despite meager buoyancy. A couple strong tornadoes (EF-2+)
are also possible across our SE AL and FL Panhandle counties. A
damaging wind threat is also likely given the strong low-level wind
field with this system.

Storms will then dissipate as a brief lull in the LLJ takes place
before ramping up once again with 850mb winds in excess of 70kts as
the cold front traverses the area early tomorrow morning. Storms
will then reinvigorate along the cold front, perhaps maintaining
semi-discrete features as westerly effective shear in excess of
55kts overspreads the region. It appears that a frontal feature will
be lifting over the FL Panhandle and Big Bend as the MCS to the
north dissipates, resulting in instability increasing with MLCAPE
reaching around 1000-1500J/kg and SRH reaching around 400m2s2. This
is indicative of an increasing tornado threat, some possibly strong
(EF-2+), with a particular emphasis for our westernmost FL Panhandle
counties west of the Apalachicola River. A damaging wind threat and
perhaps some hail is also possible as lapse rates steepen with a
push of cooler air aloft steepening lapse rates.

A failure mode exists with the second round of storms. If the
antecedent convection to the north over our SE AL and SW GA counties
produce stronger outflow than forecast, the air farther south may
stabilize enough inland to inhibit convection substantially.
Regardless, an all-hazards threat exists across all of our counties
this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon, especially for our SE AL
and FL Panhandle counties.

WPC currently has all of our SE AL counties, portions of our SW
GA counties, FL Panhandle counties, and portions of our inland FL
Big Bend counties outlined in a Moderate Risk (3/4) for excessive
rainfall with nearly all of our CWA outlined in a Slight Risk
(2/4) for excessive rainfall, excluding the easternmost FL Big
Bend. More on this below in the Hydrology section.

Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 60s with highs
tomorrow in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Cold front and upper low exits eastward Thursday night with
surface high pressure translating from east Texas into southern
Alabama by Friday night. Decreasing clouds are on tap Thursday
night with sunshine plentiful Friday. Highs will be in the
mid/upper 70s Friday and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s each
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Surface high pressure slides off the east coast this weekend while
mid level ridging builds across the eastern third of the US in
response to an upper low racing over the desert southwest at the
beginning of the next work week. Mid level flow will remain mostly
from the northwest, despite a mid level trough moving across the
midwest. The strength of the ridge will deflect the trough to the
north leaving fairly tranquil conditions in the extended. High
temperatures will reach for the mid/upper 80s early next week and
lows will bottom into the mid/upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A strong storm system will enter the area this afternoon
through evening bringing MVFR to IFR conditions to all sites this
evening beginning with KDHN and KECP. Ceilings will reach IFR across
all sites around 00Z. Thunderstorms are expected periodically at all
sites and have added TEMPO's to encapsulate the timing as confidence
has grown. Strong winds are also expected to prevail across all
sites through this TAF period with gusts near 30kts likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently moving along
the southern Alabama Gulf coast into the coastal waters and is
moving eastward around 40 knots and is expected to reach our
coastal waters towards late afternoon west of Mexico Beach.
Strong winds, frequent lightning, and isolated waterspouts are
possible.

Southeast to south winds increase tonight in advance of a
vigorous cold frontal passage on Thursday. Southerlies are likely
to peak as gales tonight and early Thursday, or at least exhibit
frequent gale-force gusts. Following the cold frontal passage on
Thursday, a shift to strong westerlies is expected. Winds will
start to decrease on Thursday night, but it will take until
Saturday or Saturday night for the churned-up Gulf waters to
settle down. High pressure will pass east across the waters on
Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Storms are expected to exit the area by tomorrow afternoon
leaving a wetting rain behind. Following the passage of a cold
front, transport winds 25-30mph out of the west will overspread the
region tomorrow with mixing heights reaching up to 5000ft. This will
yield high to very high dispersions areawide tomorrow afternoon.
High dispersions areawide are also possible on Friday as elevated
transport winds persist out of the northwest. MinRH will drop to
around 40-60% tomorrow afternoon with 30-50% possible Friday.
Otherwise, there are no fire concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Potentially significant flash flood event expected to unfold
across the region this evening and into Thursday. Model guidance
has been fairly consistent in showing a corridor of 4-6 inches of
rain from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into Southwestern
Georgia. Isolated heavier amounts are anticipated to be as high as
8-9 inches in some spots, which if falling urban areas would lead
to considerable flash flooding. While these rainfall amounts are
most likely across the western half of the region, lighter amounts
of 2-4 inches are expected mainly east of the Flint/Ochlockonee
River basins and could still produce localized flash flooding. For
this reason nearly the entire region is under a flood watch.

In addition to the flash flood threat, riverine flooding will occur
in the days ahead. Should the widespread QPF verify, then we'd be
looking at the potential for moderate river flooding on our flashier
river basins like the Pea and Choctawhatchee Rivers in SE Alabama
and the Kinchafoonee Creek in Lee County GA. Depending on where the
rainfall develops further east, we could see minor riverine flooding
in the Ochlockonee, Apalachicola, and Withlacoochee Rivers as well.

For coastal flooding, opted to issue a coastal flood warning from
Wakulla County eastward to Dixie County. The tide around 4 am ET
Thursday morning is not quite aligned with the peak surge, so with
it being a bit offset, water levels may not get quite as high as
possible, but the strong winds behind the squall line will be
sufficient to produce enough surge combined with a higher high tide
around 2 pm ET to produce water levels of 2 to 4 feet above normally
dry ground within the warning area. A coastal flood advisory has
been issued for areas in Franklin County where water levels should
be slightly less.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   66  80  54  77 / 100  80   0   0
Panama City   66  74  58  74 /  90  20   0   0
Dothan        65  75  51  74 / 100  10   0   0
Albany        66  78  52  74 /  90  60   0   0
Valdosta      68  81  54  76 /  80  90   0   0
Cross City    66  77  55  77 /  30  90   0   0
Apalachicola  67  74  59  72 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for FLZ007>019-026>028-
     108-112-114-115-118-127-128.

     Wind Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 2 PM EDT
     /1 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ011-013-016>019-026.

     Wind Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 AM EDT
     /10 AM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ007>010-012-014-015-027-114-115-
     118-127.

     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ028-029-034-
     128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Friday for FLZ108-
     112-114.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ108-112.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for FLZ115.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ115.

     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for FLZ118-127-128-134.

GA...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     GAZ123-125-127>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ALZ065>069.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Thursday for
     ALZ068-069.

GM...Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT Thursday for
     GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
405 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 N Magnolia Beach      30.19N 85.73W
04/10/2024  M53 MPH          Bay                FL   Mesonet

            Gulf Coast State College weatherstem gusted
            to 53 mph.

&&

IG3

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
408 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 E Saint Andrews State 30.13N 85.72W
04/10/2024  M48 MPH          GMZ750             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XSTA St. Andrew Bay.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
414 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 WNW Blue Mountain Bea 30.35N 86.23W
04/10/2024  M42 MPH          Walton             FL   Mesonet

            Ed Walline Beach Access gusted to 42 mph.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
418 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NE West Bay           30.35N 85.80W
04/10/2024  M54 MPH          Bay                FL   ASOS

            ASOS station KECP Panama City.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
452 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Tyndall Afb             30.07N 85.57W
04/10/2024  M45 MPH          Bay                FL   ASOS

            KPAM gusted to 45 mph.

&&

IG3

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
454 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Marine Tstm Wind Tyndall Afb             30.07N 85.57W
04/10/2024  M41 MPH          Bay                FL   ASOS

            KTDR gusted to 41 mph.

&&

IG3