Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
338 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

The surface low and associated cold front that are bringing severe
thunderstorms to the area today will be well north and east of the
area by sunrise. The upper level trough that has been the main
driver of this aforementioned surface low and cold front will
continue to dig southward into the region Sunday, which will lead to
geopotential height falls and gusty conditions across the area.
Surface high pressure over eastern Texas will push into the region
on Sunday in the wake of the upper level upper level trough, which
will aid in the gusty winds, with a tight pressure gradient
developing over the region in conjunction with the aforementioned
height falls. Enough moisture at the 900 mb level will lead to a
very shallow cloud base that will persist through much of the day on
Sunday. This will similarly keep temperatures cool in conjunction
with the cold front passing through the area tonight. Given the cold
air advection pushing into the region in the wake of the cold
frontal passage high temperatures will struggle to reach the low 60s
areawide, with only the SE Big Bend reaching the low 60s for the
region.  Temperatures tonight will fall into the mid to upper 40s
areawide.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

Dry weather is forecast for this stretch of the forecast.
Ensembles and cluster analysis show upper level troughing moving
east by midweek, allowing for upper level ridging move in from the
west. At the surface northwest flow starts the period off leaving
us with seasonably chilly temperatures Sunday into Monday. Then,
surface high pressure builds along the Gulf for Monday and
Tuesday. A dry frontal passage should pass through midweek, but
will be followed by another round of high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

Guidance has struggled with the evolution of the cloud bases
today, with the area generally clearing out ahead of a developing
line of thunderstorms currently moving into Walton and Geneva
counties. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at ABY, VLD, and
TLH for the next few hours before the line of storms push through
the area. DHN and ECP are currently observing MVFR restrictions,
which are expected to continue through the end of the TAF period.
Once the line of storms moves through region, MVFR to IFR CIGs are
expected to develop behind the line of storms, and will persist
through the end of the TAF period at all terminals before VFR
conditions look to return shortly after 18 UTC Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the the
waters this afternoon and evening. Frequent lightning, gusty
winds, heavy rain, and waterspouts will be possible with its
passage. Ahead of these storms and the trailing cold front,
moderate to fresh southerly prevail. The cold front is expected
track through tonight and will shift winds to the northwest and
increase to fresh or strong breezes, with near gale force gusts
being possible. Winds will generally hold through Monday morning
before becoming moderate northerly breezes late in the day. High
pressure will expand along the northern Gulf Coast on Monday night
and Tuesday. A dry reinforcing cold front will pass late
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

The line of thunderstorms will continue to progress through the area
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. As the storms
push through the area, they are expected to weaken as they enter
into the Big Bend and southwest Georgia along the I-75 corridor. The
cold front will move through the region overnight tonight, which
will lead to moderate to strong northwest flow across the region on
Sunday. Surface high pressure will move into the region Sunday and
into Monday, and looks to remain in place over the southeast through
the end of the work week, which will keep the area dry. There are no
fire weather concerns at this time for the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

No major changes to the rainfall forecast this afternoon as a
line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region
this afternoon and evening. For our central time zones, 0.5 to 1.5
inches of rain are forecast while the eastern time zones range
from 0.15 to 0.80 inches. The PWAT value from our 18Z launch was
1.37 inches. The SPC mesoanalyst page has a 1.4 inches to 1.8
inches, with the heaviest axis over SE AL and the W FL Panhandle.
This could lead to heavier periods of rain in the strongest of
showers or thunderstorms. Nuisance flooding is possible such as
run off issues in urban or poor drainage areas.

Starting late tonight and into Monday, a stretch of dry weather is
forecast. Therefore no flooding is expected during this period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   48  58  42  60 /  40   0   0   0
Panama City   47  59  41  59 /  20   0   0   0
Dothan        45  55  39  57 /  40   0   0   0
Albany        46  55  41  58 /  60   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  59  42  59 /  60   0   0   0
Cross City    54  63  42  60 /  70   0   0   0
Apalachicola  48  58  42  58 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     GMZ730-765.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to
     10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...KR

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