Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
255 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR TONIGHT'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

Bottom line: Severe weather remains possible through the overnight
hours into Wednesday morning. Everyone needs to have multiple ways
to receive warnings that will wake them up tonight into Wednesday
morning.

Mid-level water vapor imagery and SPC mesoanalysis shows the
parent trough over the western Great Lakes into the southern
Plains. There is a secondary shortwave diving south along the
western edge of this parent trough that will be something we have
to watch. The latest sounding from TAE shows a stout capping
inversion around 770 mb, but above that, mid-level laps rates are
around 7C/km. Deep layer shear is abundant as well.

We've seen some scattered showers develop over southeast Alabama
and the far western Florida Panhandle so far this evening, but the
better instability and better forcing remains off to our west and
north. Models continue to indicate that through the night, the
secondary shortwave will dive quickly to the south, giving us a
bit more forcing during the overnight hours with quickly dropping
500 mb heights (around 90-120 m within 6-12 hours), but this comes
later in the night. This should help cool some of our mid-levels
off, which may erode the cap somewhat. Additionally, guidance is
insistent on the low level jet strengthening over our forecast
area during the overnight to 45 to 60 knots. This will help
increase the low-level shear and enlarge our hodographs.

Given all this, the severe weather threat continues for our area.
It appears that this may materialize in discrete cells as it
enters our area, mostly over Alabama and Georgia. As it progresses
through our area and the next shortwave dives into the southeast,
we may see a reorganization and resurgence of storms near the
Flint and Apalachicola Rivers late in the night or early in the
morning, then continues eastward. The better environment overall
is across our Georgia counties, but severe weather remains
possible for the entire forecast area. The evening update
maintains the Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3 of 5) for
our Alabama and Georgia counties with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
elsewhere. The main threats remain tornadoes (some possibly
strong), large hail, and damaging wind gusts.

Otherwise, timing still remains largely on track from the previous
forecast. Temperatures were adjusted as it doesn't really appear
we'll cool off too much more thanks to increasing warm air
advection through the night.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

Severe weather threat to continue into this afternoon with damaging
winds, tornadoes, and hail possible.

An extended period of dry weather arrives in the wake of a cold
front from mid-week through the weekend.

A warming trend kicks off early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

The main concern will be the passage of a broken line of strong to
severe thunderstorms across the service area this morning.

At 2 AM EDT, a cold front was entering central Alabama from the
northwest. In advance of the front, a broken line of strong to
severe thunderstorms was on the cusp of entering our southeast
Alabama counties. The air mass in advance of the line was moderately
unstable, with an axis of mixed-layer CAPE around 1500 J/kg. VAD
wind profiles from EVX and EOX radars show a robust southwesterly
low-level jet of 45-50 knots in the 2,000-3,000 foot layer. SPC
mesoanalysis page shows the Significant Tornado Parameter in the pre-
storm environment to be 2-3, reflecting strong kinematics beneath
500 mb westerly flow of 60-70 knots. The 06z TAE sounding showed a
strong cap around 8,000 feet, with steep lapse rates above the cap.
Strong height falls and large-scale lift will erode this cap during
the pre-dawn hours. So an uptick in storm strength, intensity, and
severe potential is expected during the pre-dawn hours. By sunrise,
the strongest storms should be over between Tallahassee and
Valdosta, as well as the I-75 corridor of Georgia. Storms should
exit past the Lower Suwannee Valley late this morning.

Speaking of the low-level jet, it has shown signs of surfacing
recently, with non-convective 40+ mph gusts recently at Marianna and
Donalsonville. Have posted a Wind Advisory from these areas in a
swatch to the east and northeast until about sunrise.

Once storms exit, gust west and northwest winds will follow this
afternoon. Clouds will lift and scatter out, and a drier air mass
will filter in. Winds will stay up tonight, keeping the cool air
advecting in but preventing radiational cooling. Nonetheless, a cool
night with lows in the 40s will prevail, except near 50 along the
immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

Cool and dry conditions prevail through the short-term period thanks
to Eastern US troughing aloft and prevailing surface high pressure.
Temperatures are forecast to be below-normal for early April with a
stable post-frontal airmass in place - highs in the upper 60s/low
70s & lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

Ridging slides in from the west in response to the aforementioned
trough shifting off the Atlantic coast this weekend. Forecast
Saturday-Sunday morning lows are in the 40s, then increase to the
50s. The pattern shift change kicks off a warming trend early next
week with high temperatures rebounding to the upper 70s/low 80s by
Sunday. Come Monday, an upstream Northern Plains trough breaks down
the ridge and sends a front our way. These features prompt returning
rain chances to conclude the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

The main concern will be the passage of a broken line, or perhaps
multiple broken lines, of strong to severe thunderstorms this
morning. In addition, moist southerly flow in advance of the storms
has brought up IFR ceilings for our FL terminals, with DHN, ABY, and
VLD likely to have their ceilings drop a bit more.

Once storms pass east, a little trailing stratiform rain is
possible. Ceilings will start to steadily lift as drier air starts
to filter in behind a cold front. More robust scattering is expected
during the late morning. Gusty west winds will prevail during
daylight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms attendant to a passing cold
front will pose a gusty wind, waterspout, and hail threat into
tomorrow afternoon. Initially onshore breezy winds quickly turning
out of the northwest after frontal passage will make for advisory
level conditions. A lingering tight pressure gradient in the wake of
this system keeps hazardous boating in place until at least late
Thursday or early Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

A cold front will pass the districts this morning, preceded by a
line of strong to severe thunderstorms. Following the front late
this morning, gusty winds will usher in a drier air mass and a
deep mixed layer. This will lead to high dispersion spreading into
districts along and west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers
this afternoon. These conditions will overspread the entire region
on Thursday and Friday. A dry air mass will also filter into the
region this afternoon, with widespread Min RH values of 25 to 35
percent on Thursday and Friday. &&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

Outside of potential pockets of heavy rainfall from the overnight
Tuesday/early Wednesday system, there are no hydrologic concerns. An
extended period of dry weather is expected thereafter, into early
next week. Looking at rivers, a few in the Ochlockonee & Suwannee
basins remain in action stage, but are mostly on a downward
trajectory.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  49  71  46 / 100   0   0   0
Panama City   70  53  70  50 /  60   0   0   0
Dothan        68  45  68  43 /  20   0   0   0
Albany        69  46  68  42 /  70   0   0   0
Valdosta      72  49  69  45 / 100   0   0   0
Cross City    73  52  70  48 /  90   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  55  67  52 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for FLZ011.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ125>129-143>146-
     155>157.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Thursday for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

MESOSCALE UPDATE...Young
SYNOPSIS...IG3
NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...IG3

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
531 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Southern Junction 31.01N 85.48W
04/03/2024                   Houston            AL   911 Call Center

            Reports of downed trees along 109 near the
            FL and AL state lines. Location estimated.

&&

KR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
548 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SSE Callaway          30.12N 85.57W
04/03/2024  M60 MPH          Bay                FL   Mesonet

&&

KR

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
614 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 ESE Callaway          30.13N 85.52W
04/03/2024  M53 MPH          GMZ750             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet located near a dock reported a 53
            mph wind gust.

&&

KR