Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
114 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A very slow-moving front is currently working its way eastward
through the area today with showers and a few thunderstorms along
it. This front will eventually stall out somewhere along the FL
Big Bend and South Central GA later tonight. Showers and storms
are expected to diminish later this evening and tonight with a
lull in activity for most of the night. A second round of
convection is expected to blossom along this boundary sometime in
the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning before continuing again
through much of the day. While a few strong storms may be
possible, the greatest threat with this system remains the
potential for flooding. A widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is
possible across the eastern 2/3 of the area, with isolated totals
of 5+ also possible. As a result, a Flood Watch remains in effect
from later this evening through at least Wednesday evening. If
easterly trends in the forecast axis of higher rainfall amounts
occur, we may be able to pare back the northwestern portions of
the watch. While the threat still appears possible for the watch
area, confidence is increasing that impacts are more likely across
the eastern FL Big Bend into far South Central GA (Valdosta area).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

There is a large upper level trough moving through the area in this
short term period, as a low from the Gulf Coast swings its way into
the FL panhandle. As the front approaches, the cold front is
expected to stall and become stationary, which would bring heavier
rainfall totals into Wednesday night. Current model guidance is
showing PWATS ranging from 1.6"-1.8", and is projected to stall
around the AL, GA, and FL state boundary intersection (Gulf &
Liberty counties FL through Turner & Worth counties GA). which may
cause some flooding in north FL areas. SPC has issued this general
area to be under a thunderstorm risk on Wednesday evening, but
instability is a limiting factor for this system, as CAPE values are
low.

Lows on Wednesday night are forecasted to range from low to mid 50s
throughout ALB, GA, and FL counties. Highs on Thursday should stay
in the low 70s in AL and GA counties, and mid-70s in the FL
panhandle. Winds should stay calm and northwesterly throughout the
day. Overnight lows should dip down to the mid to upper 40s.
Temperatures on Friday morning will warm back up to the low-to-mid
70s through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Once the frontal passage moves through on Thursday evening, a high
pressure system in expected to build in on the west and move into
our area for the entire long term forecasting period, bringing some
warm high temperatures in the mid-to-high 80s throughout the week,
with light easterly to southerly winds. Low temperatures will
gradually rise throughout the weekend, ranging from upper 50s to low
60s. Otherwise, conditions are forecasted to stay relatively dry, as
there is no precipitation expected to develop over this upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the TAF
period, mainly along the stalled cold front and areas to the
east, affecting TLH, ABY, and VLD terminals through the term.
Ceilings will remain MVFR/IFR through most of the period for these
terminals, with occasional LIFR during the heavier storms. Low
vsbys are possible following some of the showers/thunderstorms
currently and into the early morning hours. Some thunderstorms may
produce hail during the overnight hours and the occasional gusty
winds. During the day, the main threat from these storms will be
heavy rain; although, gusty winds, hail, and a brief tornado
remains possible. The ECP and DHN terminals should return to VFR
cigs by around 14z this morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Small craft advisory conditions will continue into tonight west of
Apalachicola with seas around 7 feet. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue across the area through Wednesday with gusty winds,
lightning, and the potential for waterspouts. Boating conditions
will improve after the system exits to the east Thursday through the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A very slow moving frontal system will bring several rounds of rainfall to
the area through Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. High dispersions
will be possible for areas behind the front (FL Panhandle, SE AL, and SW GA)
on Wednesday afternoon and again areawide on Thursday afternoon. Elevated
fire weather conditions will be possible on Thursday with breezy wins and
low humidity behind the front. After today and Wednesday's rainfall, fuels
should still be in good shape.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Today, a coastal flood advisory is in effect for Franklin,
Wakulla, and Jefferson through Tuesday as moderate to strong east-
southeast winds persist through Tuesday afternoon. This will serve
to push water onto the coast across the aforementioned areas which
may interact with high tide between 12AM-8PM Tuesday.

Regarding rainfall, around 1-3" is expected areawide with the higher
amounts likely falling east of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers
where a cold front is forecast to stall. Two rounds of rainfall are
expected to occur with the first occurring across SE AL and the FL
Panhandle as the cold front begins its push into the area Tuesday
morning through afternoon. The WPC currently has our SE AL, FL
Panhandle, and portions of our SW GA counties in a slight risk (2/4)
for excessive rainfall.

The cold front will then stall along the aforementioned area
resulting in our second round of rainfall on Wednesday. There is
higher confidence regarding the area of heaviest rainfall, resulting
in a flood watch for the areas of interest east of a line extending
from Gulf County FL to Turner County GA. Storm totals are forecast
to reach around 2-3" with locally higher amounts 5"+ where heavier
rain may be possible. The WPC has a slight risk (2/4) outlined
across our FL Big Bend and SW GA counties. Flash flooding appears
possible with this event with flash flood guidance showing 4-5" in
6hrs across FL with lower values across SE AL and SW GA around 3.5-
4.5".

Regarding rivers, all have fallen out of flood stage. However, there
is a chance they could return to action stage and perhaps minor
flooding as a result of the expected rainfall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  54  73  46 /  60  70   0   0
Panama City   76  54  73  49 /  30  20   0   0
Dothan        75  49  71  44 /  10  10   0   0
Albany        75  51  71  44 /  30  30  10   0
Valdosta      73  54  72  46 /  80  90  10   0
Cross City    75  57  75  47 /  90  80  10   0
Apalachicola  71  56  70  51 /  60  60   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ014>019-026>029-034-114-
     115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for FLZ108-
     112.

GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for GAZ127>131-145>148-156>161.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Brennan
LONG TERM....Brennan
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Worster

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1249 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 AM     Hail             2 E Chula               31.55N 83.51W
03/27/2024  E0.50 Inch       Tift               GA   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
111 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

FLZ014-114-270600-
Inland Gulf FL-Coastal Gulf FL-
111 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN GULF COUNTY THROUGH 200
AM EDT/100 AM CDT/...

At 111 AM EDT/1211 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 16 miles southwest of Port St. Joe, moving northeast at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Port St. Joe, Milltown, Highland View, St Joseph State Park, Odena,
Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, Simmons Bayou, Jones Homestead, Ward
Ridge, Saint Joe Beach, and White City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2973 8548 2980 8549 3001 8529 2982 8506
      2959 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 220DEG 37KT 2964 8549

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
141 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

GAZ159>161-270630-
Brooks GA-Lanier GA-Lowndes GA-
141 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LANIER...LOWNDES AND EAST
CENTRAL BROOKS COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM EDT...

At 141 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Quitman, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeland, Valdosta, Moody Air Force Base, I-75 At Exit 16, Remerton,
Meigs, Naylor, Courthouse, Greenwood, Barretts, Hansell, Valdosta
Regional Airport, Kinderlou, Blue Springs, I-75 At Exit 22, and
Stockton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3086 8300 3085 8301 3085 8309 3083 8309
      3083 8310 3081 8311 3072 8342 3088 8352
      3103 8326 3103 8320 3106 8320 3106 8317
      3108 8317 3118 8297 3087 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0541Z 242DEG 34KT 3081 8347

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

72-ROGACHESKI

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