Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
254 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

Breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon have lead to diurnal
warming/instability. This increase in buoyancy will lead to PWATs
increasing across the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama as the atmospheric
column moistens. The proximity to the incoming cold front also
leads this part of the area to have better large-scale forcing for
ascent. All this to say there will be showers across the FL
Panhandle and SE Alabama, the increase in instability could lead to
a few rumbles of thunder and gusty winds from outflows as storms
collapse.

During the overnight hours the front will slowly move across the
region. As the atmosphere decouples and stabilizes at the surface
we'll see a reduction in PoPs and an increase in fog coverage. Areas
ahead of the front, specifically across the FL Big Bend and SW
Georgia will be either near calm or calm with plenty of moisture
leading to another night of patchy to dense fog. As the front moves
through tomorrow, we'll see skies beginning to clear up as dew
points drop and cooler air from the north begins to move across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 205 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

The short term period begins with the region between the departing
cold front and a reinforcing cold front over the Mid Mississippi
Valley. This secondary cold front will bring a much cooler and
drier airmass to the region, returning the feel of winter.
However, the trend in the models over the last week has been
toward a warmer solution than initially advertised several days
ago. This is largely due to the northern stream trough and the
surface high pressure area remaining much further north of our
region. So while cool advection on Friday into Friday night will
be modest, it won't be significant enough to drive temperatures or
wind chills incredibly low. Model guidance this 12z cycle has
warmed from the last cycle, and with the pressure gradient fairly
tight Friday night, it is quite unlikely that air temperatures
will reach freezing into FL, though a few spots in SE Alabama may
get there. Nonetheless, with the surface wind, wind chills will
dip down below freezing across much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

The long term period begins with a cool and dry airmass in place
with surface high pressure across the Great Lakes that will
transit to the Mid Atlantic States and remain in place into
Tuesday. Because the center of the ridge is located so far to the
north of the region, low temperatures Saturday night are not set
up to be as cool as advertised in the MOS, as this isn't an ideal
radiational cooling setup with 3-5 kt of wind overnight. Only a
gradual warming trend is then expected until Monday when the low
level flow picks up more of an easterly component when the high
pressure area centers over the Mid Atlantic States. At this point,
gradual moisture return and moderation of the airmass will lead
to temperatures rising back into the upper 60s to near 70 for
highs by the end of the period. This will also set up the region
for a return of stratus/fog late in the period in the easterly
flow regime.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

Conditions are improving from the VLIFR conditions from earlier
this morning. Plenty of stratus remains through the area with
variable cig heights from IFR to low VFR at this time with slowly
improving conditions expected this afternoon. Also, a few SHRA are
expected to develop this afternoon through early evening. A cold
front is expected to move into the area overnight. Ahead of the
front, another round of fog/stratus will occur. LIFR/VLIFR is
likely to occur with the highest probs from ECP-TLH-VLD. After the
passage and winds shift to the northwest, conditions will
gradually improve.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

A weak cold front will move through the marine area late tonight
and through the morning hours on Thursday. This will shift winds
to offshore through the remainder of the week. By Friday, a
secondary cold front will move through the region, resulting in an
increase in stronger offshore winds by friday night. A period of
advisory conditions is expected Friday night through Saturday
before winds slightly decrease into the weekend as high pressure
builds over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic States. Modest
offshore winds will continue through the remainder of the weekend
and into early next week with the high pressure area well to the
north of the marine area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

A cold front will pass the districts from late tonight through
Thursday, with a cooler and drier air mass following from later
Thursday into Friday and the weekend. This cold front will
increase transport winds, coming out of the northwest, across the
region leading to fair to good dispersions Thursday and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

The approaching front this evening and overnight should produce
limited rainfall across the region. Thereafter, dry conditions are
expected until the middle of next week, thus, there are no flood
concerns for the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   60  73  45  65 /  20   0   0   0
Panama City   58  71  46  64 /  30   0   0   0
Dothan        55  67  41  62 /  20   0   0   0
Albany        55  70  41  62 /  30   0   0   0
Valdosta      59  74  47  64 /  20  10   0   0
Cross City    60  77  50  68 /  20  10   0   0
Apalachicola  61  71  48  65 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM....Godsey
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
429 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

GAZ123-144-182215-
Baker GA-Calhoun GA-
429 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BAKER AND CALHOUN
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA THROUGH 515 PM EST...

At 428 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Morgan, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morgan, Edison, Arlington, Leary, Commissary Hill, Turman,
Parksville, Bermuda, Holt, and Dickey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 8445 3155 8446 3154 8445 3147 8442
      3139 8444 3142 8464 3143 8464 3144 8479
      3151 8480 3157 8473 3159 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 280DEG 15KT 3150 8465

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-WD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
559 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

GAZ122>126-182345-
Randolph GA-Lee GA-Dougherty GA-Terrell GA-Calhoun GA-
559 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL DOUGHERTY...SOUTHEASTERN
RANDOLPH...SOUTHERN LEE...NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHERN TERRELL
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA THROUGH 645 PM EST...

At 559 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dawson, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dawson, Leesburg, Albany, Putney, East Albany, Marine Corps Logistics
Base, Turner City, Walker, Sasser, Stocks, Radium Springs, Forrester,
Lockett Crossing, South Albany, Southwest Ga Regional A/P, Palmyra,
Clarks Mill, Dawson Municipal A/P, Williamsburg, and
Chickasawhatchee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3177 8399 3176 8399 3172 8403 3170 8402
      3165 8402 3165 8400 3163 8401 3158 8401
      3146 8411 3159 8453 3165 8459 3176 8454
      3180 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 290DEG 21KT 3172 8445

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-WD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
615 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     Hail             Leary                   31.48N 84.51W
12/18/2024  M1.00 Inch       Calhoun            GA   Broadcast Media

            Broadcast Media and Public reported quarter
            size hail.

&&

WD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
632 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     Hail             1 NE Baconton           31.39N 84.15W
12/18/2024  M0.25 Inch       Mitchell           GA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Pea sized hail reported by local fire
            department.

&&

WD