Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
307 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Numerous showers and storms are developing across the area this
afternoon and will continue through this evening. Hi-res guidance
suggests that a loosely-organized MCS may materialize over northern
or central Georgia that may move southward late this afternoon into
the evening hours. Given some slightly drier air in the mid-levels
entering the forecast area (PWATs closer to 1.8 to 2.0 inches),
there could be a slightly better chance for gusty winds in storms.
An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, and the Storm
Prediction Center has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe weather
(level 1 of 5) for our Alabama and Georgia counties. Storms are also
moving just fast enough to help mitigate a flash flood risk, but
this still is possible if storms end up training.

Once storms end tonight, we should be mostly quiet outside of some
showers and storms developing toward daybreak over the waters. Can't
rule out patchy fog either over Alabama and Georgia, but confidence
is a bit too low to include explicitly in the forecast. Lows will be
in the mid to upper 70s.

For Tuesday, mid-level ridging shifts westward over the southern
plains and lower Mississippi Valley, entrenching us in northerly to
northwesterly flow. A weak shortwave looks to pivot around the
ridge, which may bring another MCS down toward our area tomorrow
afternoon or evening. Confidence is a bit lower given high
dispersion among the CAMs. But, there looks to be more dry air in
the mid-level that could help increase the gusty wind potential.
Otherwise, typical summerlike storms will develop in the morning
near the coast, then spread inland during the afternoon. Highs will
be in the lower to middle 90s with heat index values peaking around
105-110. Have held off on any Heat Advisory issuance given
uncertainties in rain/cloud coverage and start times. If one were to
be issued, confidence is highest in the Florida counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Upper level ridging builds in from the Arklatex region which will
begin to usher slightly drier air to the region. PWATs are
forecast to potentially fall to about 1.6-2.2", with the lower
values being found more over SE AL and SW GA. At the surface and
lower levels, we'll still have some influence of onshore flow that
supports sea breeze convection. Precip chances remain highest in
the FL counties at about 50-70% during the afternoon, while the GA
and AL counties are closer to 40-50% due to the drier air and
ridging building back in. Highs for Wednesday will be in the mid
90s, with heat index values ranging 105-113 degrees, perhaps
locally in the FL counties. These values place us within or well
within Heat Advisory conditions; however, temperatures will be
dependent on cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Upper level ridging will build on Thursday and try to hold through
Friday evening. This is when a shortwave trough tries to barrel
through the upper midwest into the Great Lakes region, with upper
level troughing then sitting to our north. At the surface a weak
front will try to advance into the southeast perhaps making it to
just north of our AL and GA counties on Sunday into Monday. Precip
chances for the work week will be like our typical summer like
storms. Chance for showers and storms increase over the weekend as
the troughing sets up. Temperatures during this period flirt with
heat advisory conditions but will be dependent on cloud cover and
precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Scattered TSRA will continue developing near the TAF sites through
the afternoon. A perhaps more organized cluster of storms could
move southward through the terminals late this afternoon into the
evening; thus have extended VCTS to 00-02z at all sites. VFR
conditions otherwise til sunrise. Some patchy fog may develop near
DHN, ABY, and VLD around sunrise with VFR resuming afterward.
Isolated TSRA could develop near ECP mid to late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Each evening and morning will feature rain showers and thunderstorms
over our waters, diminishing as the day continues. These storms
may feature gusty and erratic winds with waterspouts possible.
Light and variable winds are expected to persist through the
forecast period. Seas remain calm around 1 to 2 feet through the
entirety of the forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Dispersions will be fair over the next few days with generally light
and variable winds. Daily chances for showers and storms, starting
near the coast in the morning then spreading inland in the
afternoon, will continue over the next few days. These storms will
be capable of producing frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty
and erratic winds. Fire weather concerns remain minimal.&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rain remains hoisted
over the region today. The SPC mesoanalysis page generally shows
PWATS around 2.1-2.3", with PWATs near 1.9" just to our north in
SE AL. This will support heavier showers and thunderstorms;
however, storms this afternoon have been moving substantially
faster than they have the previous few days. This may cut down on
the nuisance and flash flooding risk, unless storms train.

Tomorrow, PWATs may continue to have a downward trend due to north
and northwesterly flow. Precip chances start off in a more typical
summer like fashion in the morning, with perhaps an MCS moving
through later in the afternoon or evening. With drier air and
faster storm motions, flash flooding chances will hinder on slower
moving storms or occur where areas have already seen substantial
amounts of rain the past few days.

Mid to late week, ridging builds back and tries to hold over the
region. This should act as a suppressant for widespread
thunderstorm development. Storms will be dependent on the sea
breeze, lingering boundaries from prior convection, or breaking
the cap. This puts us back towards our typical summer like
convection and where we monitor for nuisance and localized flash
flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  94  76  94 /  40  70  20  60
Panama City   78  92  79  93 /  50  60  20  50
Dothan        75  94  76  95 /  40  70  10  50
Albany        74  94  75  95 /  50  60  20  40
Valdosta      75  94  76  96 /  40  60  20  50
Cross City    75  93  75  94 /  40  70  20  70
Apalachicola  78  90  79  90 /  40  70  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...KR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
639 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

GAZ147-148-292315-
Berrien GA-Cook GA-
639 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT COOK AND SOUTHWESTERN BERRIEN
COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 639 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sparks, or near Adel, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Adel, Sparks, Cecil, Reed Bingham State Park, Cottle, Cook Co A/P,
New Lois, Massee, Barneyville, Greggs, Pine Valley, Flat Ford, Wagon
Wheel, and Laconte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 8323 3103 8347 3104 8349 3105 8350
      3105 8351 3116 8355 3118 8354 3120 8351
      3124 8351 3126 8347 3127 8336 3121 8328
      3116 8325 3111 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 340DEG 8KT 3119 8345

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

97-OLIVER

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