Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
129 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The 12Z TAE Sounding shows over 1.4k J/kg of DCAPE and westerly
winds at 500 hPa of 25 kts. The forecast SB CAPE this afternoon
off the sounding is ~2k J/kg and model guidance has 2-3k J/kg
northwest of the FL Big Bend. Meanwhile, 500 hPa winds increase
to 30-35 kts. The Convective Temperature off the sounding is 92F,
which will be easily attainable this afternoon, and there is also
a weak mid-level cap near 600 hPa. The GOES Daytime Cloud Phase
shows a line of towering cu propagating southeast through south-
central AL and GA, likely along the leading edge of the greater
synoptic scale ascent ahead of the shortwave.

Expect convective initiation over Southeast AL and Southwest GA
between 1pm and 4pm ET, with storm motions generally out of the
west at 25-30 kts, with activity propagating southeastward thru
the evening hours. It's questionable how much, if any activity
actually makes it into the FL Big Bend, which should diminish
around 10 pm to midnight. No changes to the SPC Risk areas that
are highlighted in the near term section below. The main threat
is gusty winds with any storms and isolated damaging winds, but
coverage should be limited due to the extend of mid-level dry
air. Locally heavy rainfall if and where storms train.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The main concern for today centers around a marginal risk of severe
weather this afternoon across a large portion of the area from
Tallahassee northward. A weak surface frontal boundary will sag
southward into the area as an upper level trough digs southward.
Ample instability will be in place, and deep layer shear values will
be on the high side for summer time in our area given the stronger
upper level flow. In addition, some mid-level dry air will enhance
DCAPE values this afternoon, setting the stage for gusty winds with
any storms that develop. There appears to be enough forcing for at
least scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. Thus, a
marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) is in place over most
of the area this afternoon with a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
clipping the northeast corner of the forecast area. Highs today will
be quite warm ahead of the weak boundary, reaching well into the 90s
for most area, and mid to upper 90s are expected around Tallahassee.
Storms will gradually diminish after sunset, although they may
linger for a few hours after sunset. Overnight lows will generally
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Trough axis will be east of the region by Tuesday as drier mid-
level filters into the forecast area from the west and northwest.
Rain chances should be lower on Tuesday compared to Monday with
the only rain chances likely to be confined in the southeast Big
Bend where the better low-level moisture and seabreeze convergence
with the weak frontal boundary will be in play. An isolated
shower or storm can't be ruled out across the remainder of the
Big Bend and Panhandle with chances around 10 to 20%.

Slightly better moisture and perhaps the weak influence of a mid-
level trough will allow higher rain chances on Wednesday, but
even then significant deep-layer moisture appears to be lacking so
rain chances will again only be isolated/scattered with the
higher chances across the southeast Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The extended forecast through the end of the week and the upcoming
weekend continues to remain highly uncertain. However, recent
ensemble guidance has started to catch on to the idea that the
onset of deeper tropical moisture might take longer to arrive into
the forecast area so rain chances for Thursday and Friday have
gone down and forecast highs have trended upwards. Most of these
reductions in rain chances have to do with the upper level low
that will cut off across the Gulf. Much of the guidance recently
has been much further east and weaker with this cutoff low while
trending slightly stronger with a mid-level ridge across the Dixie
Alley in Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana. This upper level
pattern is likely to keep the deep tropical moisture shunted to
the east. While conditions will not be bone dry, thanks to weak
disturbances moving through the ridge, the widespread soaker that
appeared to move in at the end of the week now seems to reflect
more of a typical summertime pattern, and possibly drier, if
recent forecast trends hold.

While the chance for a widespread heavy rain event has reduced,
we'll still need to keep an eye on how the pattern unfolds through
the week as there are still several ensemble member solutions that
could bring a return to heavy rain chances as the upper level
ridge weakens and moves east, This could open the door for the
deep-layer tropical moisture to move north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Currently VFR conditions with increasing cloud coverage this
afternoon. Winds will get a slight uptick as well, becoming
northerly as the night progresses. Scattered TSRA are expected
this afternoon and evening, mainly near KDHN and KABY. Reduced
conditions and gusty winds can be expected in and around any
SHRA/TSRA. Skies will then begin to clear from the north late in
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Light winds and seas should continue into the week with slowly
increasing chances for showers and storms through the week. A
round of strong storms across inland areas could move offshore in
evening bringing localized gusty winds to marine areas. Potential
tropical moisture moving in from the south through the week
appears to not be as widespread, and potential increased southerly
swell from this system has lowered as well. Still, an increase in
winds and seas is likely later in the week which will likely
bring periods of cautionary level conditions and possibly advisory
level depending on how forecasts trend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

High mixing heights will contribute to high dispersions this
afternoon, mainly across the Florida big bend and south-central
Georgia. Otherwise, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected
with gusty winds near storms. Some drier air is expected on Tuesday
and Wednesday, but an increase in tropical moisture is expected
towards the end of the week and weekend with minimal fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Widespread rainfall amounts through the week have trended down as
the heaviest forecast rainfall amounts of shifted south and east.
Current forecast amounts are not likely to bring any riverine
concerns through the next 5 to 7 days. There is still a potential
for heavy rain into the upcoming weekend and early next week, but
the forecast remains complicated and uncertain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  93  72  93 /  40  30  20  40
Panama City   74  91  73  91 /  40  20  20  30
Dothan        70  89  68  91 /  30  10  10  20
Albany        71  91  68  92 /  30  10  10  30
Valdosta      72  92  70  92 /  50  30  20  40
Cross City    73  93  72  92 /  20  50  40  60
Apalachicola  77  88  76  88 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
101 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

ALZ067-101845-
Henry AL-
101 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HENRY COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM CDT...

At 100 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Texasville, or 11 miles northwest of Abbeville, moving east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Screamer, Walter F. George Lock And Dam, Coates, Edwin,
Thomas Mill Creek, Otho, Scottsboro Crossroads, Double Bridges,
Lawrenceville, and Abbeville Municipal A/P.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 8513 3174 8512 3170 8513 3166 8508
      3164 8509 3162 8506 3160 8506 3159 8525
      3160 8542 3171 8542 3170 8522 3171 8521
      3174 8520 3177 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 277DEG 15KT 3169 8538

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

97-OLIVER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
110 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

ALZ065-101900-
Coffee AL-
110 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN COFFEE COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM CDT...

At 110 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Glenwood, or 9 miles south of Goshen, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Novosel, Lee, Java, Chestnut Grove, Mixons Crossroads, Victoria,
Frisco, Eanon, Lowry Mill, Wilkinstown, Zoar, Camp Humming Hills,
Newby, Wise Mill, Roeton, Tabernacle, Clowers Crossroads, Arcus,
Woodland Grove Church, and Bluff Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8619 3153 8616 3154 8616 3154 8614
      3162 8615 3162 8579 3144 8579 3144 8597
      3148 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 287DEG 23KT 3158 8611

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

97-OLIVER