Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
712 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Currently, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9PM CDT /
10PM EDT for all of our southeast AL counties and the majority of
our southwest GA counties excluding the southern most tier from
Seminole to Lowndes counties and Lanier. Analysis shows an boundary
set up just north of Macon, back into southeast AL with convection
firing to the south of it. The SPC mesoanalysis has decent
conditions for severe weather development today over the watch area,
favoring damaging winds and hail, though an isolated tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. Most CAMs have convection ending between sunset
and shortly after midnight, with a cold front moving through
overnight. This will mostly usher in some drier air and shift winds
to the northwest and north. Overnight lows tonight will generally be
in the low to mid 70s, and tomorrow another toasty day is on tap
with highs in the low 90s across southeast AL and southwest GA, and
the low to mid 90s for the FL counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

A late season "cold" front will slowly push
through the region Tuesday evening through Wednesday, perhaps
lowering our afternoon highs by a whopping degree or two across our
SE AL and SW GA counties compared to Tuesdays highs. What this cold
front will serve to do is bring our afternoon dewpoints back down
into the mid to upper 50s inland and 60s along the coast which will
make the air feel a tad more pleasant.

Regarding rain and thunderstorm potential, chances appear quite low
as notably dry air overspreads the region with the weak cold front.
The seabreeze is expected to propagate inland in the afternoon hours
which would normally serve as just enough forcing for a few isolated
storms, though PWAT's generally less than 1.5" aren't too
encouraging for Wednesday afternoon.

Overnight lows Wednesday morning will generally stay around the mid-
60s inland and low 70s along the FL coastline with high temperatures
reaching the 90s in the afternoon. Some locations in the westernmost
FL Big Bend may see temperatures in the upper 90s. Low temperatures
going into Thursday morning will once again remain in the mid to
upper 60s with 70s along the FL coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Predominantly west-northwest flow aloft with a couple
weak disturbances will occur through the long term forecast. Surface
high pressure initially situated over the Ohio Valley will slide
south over the Southeastern US by Saturday providing easterly
surface flow. Moisture return shouldn't be overly rigorous,
especially given the variable nature of the surface winds before
they become due easterly around Saturday. PWAT's do see a slight
recovery sitting mostly around 1.5-1.8" through the period. Given
the active seabreeze regime, particularly through the weekend,
opted to keep PoPs in the 20-30% range as isolated thunderstorms
appear possible across the area.

High temperatures may see a slight decrease through the long term
forecast given easterly flow, starting in the mid to upper 80s
across SE AL and SW GA with low to mid 90s across our FL counties on
Thursday. Going into the weekend, high temperatures could possibly
drop back into the upper 80s areawide. Low temperatures through the
period will generally stay within the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Tonight, MVFR visibilities and thunderstorms are possible
across all sites. Thunderstorms will be likely from 00-06Z across
all sites with highest confidence at KABY, KDHN, and KVLD. There is
some uncertainty regarding visibilities at KDHN and lower
visibilities may be possible locally. VFR conditions should resume
by 13Z across all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Generally gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly
breezes will continue this evening before becoming light out of the
northwest. Winds will mostly be light and variable through the
period with the exception of the seabreeze each afternoon in our
nearshore waters. High pressure will build in this weekend which
will clock winds to due easterly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The main fire weather concerns will be high dispersions on Tuesday,
area wide, and Wednesday for areas along and east of the
Chattahoochee and Apalachicola rivers. Outside of that, for the rest
of today showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
region. Currently, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all
of our southeast AL and the majority of our southwest GA counties,
excluding the southern most tier of counties from Seminole to
Lowndes, and then Lanier. Damaging winds and hail are the primary
concerns, though an isolated tornado may be possible. After today,
dry weather is then forecast through mid week. MinRH values will be
a bit varied, around 30-40% for much of the region through the week,
with good overnight recovery. |

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

New flooding along the Suwannee River is possible this week,
as last weeks floodwaters on the Withlacoochee slowly route
downstream through the Suwannee. However, 7-day river forecasts for
the Suwannee have been gradually been trending down with the
respective crests from Branford down to Manatee Springs. Though
minor flooding is still the forecast a few days from now, this seems
to become less certain with each forecast update.

Generally no problematic rainfall is expected through the forecast
with generally less than an inch expected, though some isolated
stronger storms could produce 1-3" in some areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  94  69  94 /  30  10   0   0
Panama City   75  92  71  91 /  30   0   0   0
Dothan        70  91  67  91 /  40   0   0   0
Albany        69  91  65  89 /  50   0   0   0
Valdosta      72  92  67  91 /  50  10   0   0
Cross City    73  92  68  95 /  30  30   0  10
Apalachicola  76  90  73  88 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Worster

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
630 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Dawson                  31.77N 84.44W
05/27/2024                   Terrell            GA   911 Call Center

            Tree limb down in Dawson. Also a power
            outage in the Dawson area via GA Power
            outage map.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
725 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Ocilla                  31.60N 83.24W
05/27/2024                   Irwin              GA   911 Call Center

            The Irwin County 911 Dispatch reported
            several trees and powerlines down across the
            county.

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Fitzgerald          31.71N 83.24W
05/27/2024                   Ben Hill           GA   911 Call Center

            The Ben Hill 911 Dispatch reported several trees
            and powerlines down across the county.

0715 PM     Flash Flood      1 E Fitzgerald          31.71N 83.24W
05/27/2024                   Ben Hill           GA   911 Call Center

            The Ben Hill 911 Dispatch reported water
            over a few roadways as of 7:15PM EDT.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
738 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Hail             2 NNW Fitzgerald Munici 31.70N 83.28W
05/27/2024  E1.00 Inch       Ben Hill           GA   Public

            Member of the public reported lots of hail
            the size of at least quarters near W Roanoke
            Dr and Jeff David Hwy on the southwest side
            of Fitzgerald.

&&

DR