Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
742 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

The main concern through Saturday will be severe thunderstorms and
heavy rain.

In the big picture, a positively tilted southern stream upper trough
has moved east to Texas, ramping up west-southwesterly jet stream
winds along the northern Gulf Coast. A turn to southerly low-level
flow has brought a return of low-level moisture as a warm front
tries to creep northward and inland.

Already, a band of moderate rain and thunderstorms currently
stretches from southwest Alabama to west-central Georgia, mainly
along the north of the warm front. It should take on a more positive
tilt through this evening and start to slowly move southeast,
affecting most of the service area except perhaps the Forgotten
Coast and southeast Big Bend. Given the slow movement of this line,
a quick couple inches of rain should occur in spots. So a few severe
wind gusts and flash flooding will be the main threats through this
evening. We just issued a Flood Watch for areas along and west of
the Flint River, and for the inland FL Panhandle.

Looking upstream, a shortwave trough west of Del Rio TX will race
east through this evening, sparking development of a new MCS late
this evening off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. It will continue to
race east overnight near the northern Gulf Coast, pushing across the
tri- state region from west to east from early Saturday morning into
the mid-afternoon hours. Assuming this takes on a classic MCS
structure and tracks more onshore than over the Gulf waters, then
fairly widespread severe wind gusts would be possible, with isolated
convective gusts in excess of 70 mph.

As MCS exits east later Saturday afternoon, we will likely see a
significant lull in activity develop in the rain-stabilized air that
follows.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Widespread showers, in addition to scattered severe storms, continue
into Saturday evening but a general downtrend in severe weather
should begin to develop as the forcing moves east and instability
wanes. However, with one last shortwave passage left, isolated
severe storms remain possible overnight Saturday into early Sunday.

The trough pushes through Sunday with cooler temperatures aloft
moving in. While the severe threat will be noticeably lower and east
compared to Saturday's event, our GA counties along the I-75
corridor and down into the southeast Big Bend could see strong,
possibly severe, storms given the favorable temperatures aloft and
remnant instability.

We've also added some patchy fog to the forecast Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Upper level ridge settles in as the trough from the weekend moves
out. Cannot rule out a slight chance of showers across far eastern
areas on Monday as another shortwave swings through. A quieter and
drier pattern is forecast through much of next week. This pattern
should lead to a warm up in temperatures with highs back in the low
90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Broken line of SHRA and TSRA moving across the area. VLD/ECP/TLH
will be impacted over the next few hours. Behind the line, some
SHRA left over and will have a brief lull before another round
develops late in the overnight into the morning hours. Expect
MVFR/IFR around TSRA and some MVFR outside of convection. Winds
will be mainly be southerly with the exception of when storms move
through and winds temporarily become westerly to northwesterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Moderate southerly breezes will prevail across the northeast Gulf
through tonight. A line of thunderstorms is likely to move across
the waters on Saturday morning and evening, bringing strong to
severe wind gusts. A weak front will move across the waters on
Saturday and Saturday night, and stall on Sunday, bringing renewed
chances of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will pass
across the northeast Gulf on Sunday night, and then elongate along
the U.S. Eastern Seaboard on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Two rounds of thunderstorms will affect districts, the first through
this evening, then the second from Saturday morning through mid-
afternoon. Widespread wetting rains are expected. Severe
thunderstorm wind gusts are possible as well.

A weak cold front will pass the districts on Saturday night,
followed by a turn to westerly winds on Sunday. Given moderate
westerly transport winds and a deeply mixed layer on Sunday, pockets
of high dispersion values are expected during the afternoon. The
high dispersion values on Monday are mainly due to deep mixing
albeit less wind. This would support well-developed vertical smoke
columns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

The potential for flash flooding is increasing over portions of
the FL Panhandle north of I-10, Southwest GA mainly west of the
Flint River, and Southeast AL, where a Flash Flood Watch is in
effect into Saturday. Parts of this same region are also in a WPC
Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall, which means
there is the potential for numerous flash flooding. The remainder
of the area outside of the FL Big Bend is in a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall, while the Big Bend is under a Marginal Risk.

While average rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are expected across
the Flash Flood Watch area, the potential for localized higher
amounts of 6 inches from thunderstorms moving repeatedly over the
same areas (i.e., training), would result in flash flooding.
Wet antecedent conditions with moist soils will accentuate this.

The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta (Skipper Bridge Road) and
Quitman as well, as the Ochlockonee River at Concord, continue in
minor flood stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  85  69  88 /  50  80  60  40
Panama City   72  82  70  85 /  50  80  40  20
Dothan        70  80  67  85 /  70  90  30  30
Albany        70  81  67  83 /  80  90  40  40
Valdosta      73  87  69  86 /  50  80  60  50
Cross City    73  88  69  86 /  10  50  70  60
Apalachicola  74  82  72  83 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ007-009-011.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for GAZ120>126-142>145-
     155.

AL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...LF

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1110 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Flood            4 N Berrien Co a/P      31.28N 83.23W
05/17/2024                   Berrien            GA   911 Call Center

            Water over several roadways throughout the
            county.

&&

JM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1122 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Saint Joseph State  29.75N 85.40W
05/17/2024                   Gulf               FL   Public

            Porch screens ripped apart, Doors mechanisms
            torn, Dead trees broken, Light debris
            scattered.

0615 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Smith Crossroads  30.96N 85.79W
05/17/2024                   Holmes             FL   911 Call Center

            Power lines down on Roping Road.

0622 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Pittman            30.92N 85.79W
05/17/2024                   Holmes             FL   911 Call Center

            Trees down on JW Miller Road.

0635 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Bethlehem           30.92N 85.70W
05/17/2024                   Holmes             FL   911 Call Center

            Trees down Caramel Church Road.

0640 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Holland Crossroads      30.96N 85.65W
05/17/2024                   Holmes             FL   911 Call Center

            Trees down on Highway 79 South near Highway
            2.

0649 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Tendil Crossing         30.96N 85.58W
05/17/2024                   Holmes             FL   911 Call Center

            Trees down Highway 173 and Highway 2.

0650 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 N Bonifay             30.85N 85.69W
05/17/2024                   Holmes             FL   911 Call Center

            Trees down on Highway 177.

0700 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Chipley           30.79N 85.54W
05/17/2024                   Washington         FL   Emergency Mngr

            5th street and Old Bonifay Road was flooded.

0705 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ENE Tempy             31.47N 83.78W
05/17/2024                   Worth              GA   Dept of Highways

            Trees limbs blocking the road along
            Thornhill Road and SR256.

0730 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Center Hill       31.11N 83.89W
05/17/2024                   Colquitt           GA   911 Call Center

            Trees down Lower Meigs Road.

0740 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WSW Murphy            31.07N 83.84W
05/17/2024                   Colquitt           GA   911 Call Center

            Trees down Smithwick Bridge Road.

0752 PM     Tornado          2 ENE Autreyville       31.07N 83.74W
05/17/2024                   Colquitt           GA   911 Call Center

            Report of a visual sighting of a tornado
            west of Berlin.

0823 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Bahoma             30.81N 85.52W
05/17/2024                   Washington         FL   Emergency Mngr

            *** 1 INJ ***
            Tree fell on a house with one injury
            reported.

0900 PM     Flash Flood      Bonifay                 30.79N 85.69W
05/17/2024                   Holmes             FL   911 Call Center

            Reports of flooding along McGee Road.

0900 PM     Flash Flood      3 NNE Gritney           30.87N 85.81W
05/17/2024                   Holmes             FL   911 Call Center

            Reports of flooding along Indian Ave.

0937 PM     Flash Flood      1 SE Berlin             31.06N 83.61W
05/17/2024                   Colquitt           GA   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding.

&&