River Flood Warning 93, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
743 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Hurricane Helene is now a major hurricane with maximum sustained
winds of 120 mph. Helene is still forecast to make landfall along
the Florida Big Bend as a major hurricane this evening and inflict
catastrophic damage to the area. For the latest on Hurricane
Helene and its local impacts, please see the latest Hurricane
Local Statement.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Generally warm and mostly dry conditions are expected through the
next week after Helene exits the region. A stalled front to the
southeast may allow for a few showers and storms across the waters
and far southeastern portions of the area, but even then coverage
is expected to be fairly sparse. Next week another cold front is
forecast to push through the area, prolonging the warm and dry
conditions even longer. Highs are generally forecast in the 80s to
near 90, with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Look for extremely hazardous flying conditions this evening into
the overnight hours as Hurricane Helene makes landfall and tracks
northward across the area. Already seeing some tropical storm
strength gusts along the coastline. Ceilings will fall into IFR
territory, rainfall will become heavier and winds will further
increase in the coming hours. As Helene tracks further inland, we
should see gradually improving conditions from south-to-north in
the 8-12z timeframe. By mid morning, most area terminals should be
back to VFR...though still anticipate some breezy sw/wsw winds
(15g25kt) through a good part of the day Friday. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

At 11 AM EDT Thursday, the center of Hurricane Helene was located
about 330 miles south-southwest of Saint Marks Florida, over the
southeast Gulf. Helene will move north-northeast across the
eastern Gulf today, rapidly strengthening to a major hurricane
before making landfall along the Big Bend Coast this evening.
Helene will quickly move inland on Friday, so conditions will
improve over the waters. Gentle to moderate southwest to westerly
breezes will prevail this weekend, as a large area of low pressure
spins over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Hurricane Helene is forecast to push through the region later today
and tonight, bringing widespread damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
In the wake of Helene, drier conditions are expected Friday through
the weekend. However, high dispersions are expected as breezy
transport winds remain over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Widespread flash flooding will be possible today and tonight as
Hurricane Helene pushes through the area. There is a High Risk for
excessive rainfall from WPC, and a Flood Watch is in effect. Flash
flooding is already ongoing from pre-event rainfall across the FL
Panhandle. Already saturated areas will be even more susceptible
to flooding from the extreme rainfall rates expected with
Hurricane Helene.

Rapid rises on area rivers are expected with Hurricane Helene as
well, and some rivers and streams are already well on their way to
minor or moderate flood stage with recent rainfall and forecast
rainfall from Helene. Event rainfall totals could reach as high as
15 to 18 inches in some areas. If realized, these totals would
create catastrophic flooding.

If you live in a flood-prone area, there are still a couple of
hours left to move to higher ground. Of course, if you are under
an evacuation order please follow the advice of local officials.
Once tropical storm conditions begin later this afternoon and
evening, it will quickly become unsafe to be on the roads.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  84  69  86 / 100  10   0   0
Panama City   71  83  74  86 /  80   0   0   0
Dothan        65  81  65  84 / 100  20   0   0
Albany        68  81  66  84 / 100  30   0   0
Valdosta      71  85  67  86 / 100  20   0   0
Cross City    76  87  74  87 / 100  10   0   0
Apalachicola  74  83  75  84 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-
     108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ007>010-012-108-112.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ011-013>019-026>029-034-114-115-118-127-
     128-134.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ027-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

     Hurricane Warning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for ALZ065>069.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ065-066-068.

     Hurricane Warning for ALZ067-069.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ750-770.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ730-752-755-765-772-775.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
634 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Flash Flood      Sunnyside               30.25N 85.94W
09/26/2024                   Bay                FL   911 Call Center

            Water reported over the roadway near Azalea
            Dr.

&&

RH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1014 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     Tropical Cyclone Jena                    29.66N 83.38W
09/26/2024                   Dixie              FL   Mesonet

            83 mph wind gust at mobile WeatherSTEM site.

&&

PC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1021 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     Tropical Cyclone Horseshoe Point         29.44N 83.29W
09/26/2024                   GMZ765             FL   Mesonet

            84mph wind gust at Horseshoe Beach
            WeatherSTEM site.

&&

PC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1141 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     Tropical Cyclone 1 N Drifton             30.50N 83.88W
09/26/2024                   Jefferson          FL   Mesonet

            81 mph wind gust near Monticello.
            WeatherSTEM site.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1142 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     Tropical Cyclone 3 WNW Madison           30.48N 83.45W
09/26/2024                   Madison            FL   Mesonet

            80 mph wind gust at Madison High School
            WeatherSTEM station.

&&

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