River Flood Warning 77, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
749 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

At 11 pm EDT Sunday, Debby had strengthened to a hurricane over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, moving north at 12 mph. Debby will continue to
slowly strengthen as it continues to move north and then northeast
overnight, before making landfall on the Florida Big Bend Coast on
Monday.

Life-threatening storm surge will be possible along and to the right
of where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Warning remains in
effect from Indian Pass east to the Suwannee river. Storm surge
inundation above normally dry ground from water moving inland from the
coast of 6 to 10 feet is possible from the Ochlockonee River to the
Suwannee River and 4 to 6 feet is possible from the Ochlockonee River
to Indian Pass. Waves atop of the storm surge may exacerbate damage to
structures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Florida Big Bend
and South Central Georgia, where the potential for severe flash
flooding is increasing, including moderate and possibly major river
flooding. Widespread heavy rainfall of 10 to 15 inches are forecast
across the southeast Florida Big Bend and South-Central Georgia, with
isolated amounts over 18 inches possible. For the western Florida Big
Bend into parts of southwest Georgia, 4 to 10 inches are forecast with
isolated amounts over 18 inches possible. A Flood Warning is already
in effect for Monday afternoon for the Aucilla River at Lamont and St.
Marks River near Newport.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for portions of the Southeast Florida
Big Bend into Lowndes, Linear, and Brooks counties in Southwest
Georgia. Extensive and prolonged power outages are possible in the
hurricane warning. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect further west
in the Florida Big Bend into the Flint River Valley of Southwest
Georgia. Isolated tornadoes will be possible today into Monday, mainly
along and right of the track of the center, which may exacerbate the
wind threat and lead to localized pockets of greater damage.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

Through the majority of the short and long term, a drying trend
will occur as Debby progresses off Southeast U.S. Atlantic coast.
Ridging will build in following Debby's departure with
predominately north- northwest surface flow through Thursday
evening. Large- scale subsidence and drier air pushing in will
keep PoPs less than 50% for areas west of the Apalachicola and
Flint River basins with 50-60% further east. PoPs will increase
once again into the weekend as surface flow becomes more southerly
and better moisture returns to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

A large expanse of moderate rain from Hurricane Debby will
continue to expand northward. Winds will be gusty through the
entire forecast period, becoming strong to very strong near and
along the track of Debby. Low-level Wind Shear will first affect
the TLH site, and for most of the remaining TAF sites during the
day Monday. LLWS of 50 to 60 knots at 2000 feet are possible,
shifting northeasterly to northerly. Cigs will decrease to
MVFR to IFR along the path of Debby along with reductions of
visbilities to IFR. Conditions will gradually improve as winds
relax during the afternoon and evening. BB/03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

At 11 pm EDT Sunday, Debby had strengthened to a hurricane over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, moving north at 12 mph. Debby will continue to
slowly strengthen as it continues to move north and then northeast
overnight, before making landfall on the Florida Big Bend Coast on
Monday.

Conditions will continue to deteriorate this morning as the rain
bands of Debby move across the waters, with hurricane conditions
expected over the waters east of Apalachicola though much of today.
Debby will exit the waters this evening but slow down along the
Southeast U.S. Atlantic coast, so moderate to fresh westerly
breezes will continue from Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

Hurricane Debby continues to strengthen over the northeast Gulf
and will continue on its trajectory into Apalachee Bay this
morning. Landfall is expected later this morning or around midday.
Heavy rain and windy conditions will continue to overspread the
region throughout the day. The system will exit the region by
Tuesday with improving conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

..Considerable to Potentially Catastrophic Life-Threatening Flash
Flooding Possible in the eastern Big Bend and I-75 Corridor of
southern Georgia...

As Hurricane Debby moves into and through the area over the next
24-36 hours, widespread heavy rainfall will spread across the area
generally to the north and east of the center. This will
generally be across the Florida Big Bend and south central
Georgia. Rainfall totals from Apalachicola to Ashburn and eastward
will be 6 to 12 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 18
inches possible. These rainfall totals, especially if they fall in
a short period of time, will result in significant life-
threatening flash flooding. Due to these rainfall totals, wet
soils, and likely high rainfall rates, the Weather Prediction
Center has outlined the I-75 corridor and eastern Florida Big Bend
in an exceedingly rare High Risk of excessive rainfall (level 4
of 4). Much of the rest of south central Georgia and the western
Florida Big Bend is outlined in a Moderate Risk of excessive
rainfall (level 3 of 4). It's important to note that historically,
over 80% of all flood-related damages and nearly 40% of all
flood-related fatalities occur in a High Risk. The moderate and
high risks indicate that considerable to potentially catastrophic
life- threatening flash flooding in these areas.

For river flooding, moderate flooding is likely along the Big Bend
and south Georgia rivers with major flooding possible. Ensemble
forecasts still show some potential for major flooding along
several rivers. While some of our faster response rivers will rise
quickly initially, it will take several days for some of our
larger rivers (Ochlockonee, Withlacoochee, Suwannee) to reach
flood stage in some points. This will be a longer duration,
potentially significant river flood event for our area. Stay tuned
to later forecasts.

Additionally, water levels are already rising along parts of
Apalachee Bay. Expect a more significant rise in water levels and
storm surge as Debby approaches tonight. High tides on Monday are
around 4am ET and 3pm ET. The highest storm surge will occur to
the east of the center. Current forecast values are 6 to 10 feet
from the Ochlockonee River to the Suwannee River, 4 to 6 feet from
Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River, and 1 to 2 feet from Mexico
Beach to Indian Pass. Remember that these are highly track-
dependent. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for all of
Apalachee Bay. Onshore flow will continue over parts of Apalachee
Bay through much of the day Monday before becoming more offshore
Tuesday based on the current forecast track.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Panama City  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Dothan       MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Albany       MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Valdosta     MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Cross City   MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Apalachicola MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...WFO Mobile
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Young

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Tropical Cyclone 1 SSW Perry             30.11N 83.59W
08/05/2024                   Taylor             FL   Storm Chaser

            Reports of many trees and powerlines down in
            the city limits of Perry Florida per storm
            spotters/chasers.

&&

WD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
823 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     Tropical Cyclone 3 SE Jonesboro          29.68N 83.26W
08/05/2024                   Dixie              FL   Storm Chaser

            Many trees down along US-98 between Tennille
            and Cross City. Some lanes are blocked at
            points.

&&

WD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
850 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 AM     Tropical Cyclone 1 ENE Mayo              30.05N 83.17W
08/05/2024                   Lafayette          FL   Mesonet

            70 mph wind gust. Mesonet station 0112W 0.6
            E Mayo (Lafayette High School WEATHERSTEM).

&&

WD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
910 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     Tropical Cyclone Quincy Airport          30.60N 84.55W
08/05/2024                   Gadsden            FL   AWOS

            AWOS station K2J9 Quincy reported 47 mph
            wind gust.

&&

WD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
934 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     Tropical Cyclone 1 SE Indian Head Acres  30.41N 84.25W
08/05/2024                   Leon               FL   Local Official

            City of Tallahassee reports trees down in
            the county.

&&

WD

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