Gale Warning 6, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
648 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

Convection is ongoing over the Gulf and has spread into the western
areas of the service area. Storms are expected to organize later
this morning, becoming and MCS. Guidance generally keeps the more
organized convection over our Gulf waters, though rain and
thunderstorms are expected over land today. The signal for severe
weather is fairly weak for today, though some gusty winds and
periods of heavy rain are possible. Storm total rainfall amounts for
this system generally range from 1 to 2 inches, with isolated higher
amounts of 3 to 5 inches being possible. Precipitation should exit
the area later this evening and into the overnight hours, leaving
cloudy skies in its wake.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

Lingering showers are possible Wednesday morning east of the Flint
and Apalachicola Rivers. Otherwise, a cold front weakens as it moves
southward on Wednesday, with a drier air mass advecting into the
region. The pressure gradient may be weak enough for the development
of a sea breeze wind component near the coast. Increasing sun with
highs warm nicely into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday night
will be mild with lows in the 50s, and setup will be favorable for
fog, especially in the FL counties. Thursday looks to the pick of
the week in terms of fair weather. Sun through mid and high clouds
as the mid-level ridge axis moves east of the region. The pressure
gradient will be weak enough for a bonafide sea breeze to develop
along the coast, which will keep highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s, given the chilly SSTs. Further inland, highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

The main concern is a cold frontal passage this weekend with the
potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather. Precip chances will
increase on Friday with the approach of the warm front. The cold
front may tend to move through the area slowly on Saturday as the
mid-level flow begins to parallel it. Ensembles indicate sufficient
shear and instability for severe weather on Saturday, with the last
SPC Day 5 outlook indicating the equivalent of a slight risk (level
2 of 5). A low-level jet around 40 knots will advect an anomalously
moist air mass with PWATs near 1.8 inches; the heavy rain potential
is discusses in the Hydrology section. A drying trend should begin
to take hold Sunday as the front moves east of the area. Continued
above average temperatures through this weekend, with a cooler air
mass expected by early next week, and temperatures closer to average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

Light rain has moved into the region, though conditions have
remained within VFR criteria at this time. There's still some
uncertainty with how this first wave of rain will behave and if a
surface low develops with the shortwave trough. Opted to adjust
timing in all of the rain to account for the two batches, while
generally keeping cig and vis status from the previous round. If
CAMs are correct, we could see precip winding down after 6Z
tonight which then leads to a lingering stratus and potential fog
question. Some of the guidance drops vis substantially across the
region while most suggests lingering IFR to LIFR stratus. TAFs
currently reflect the stratus with perhaps some low vis creeping
into the picture, especially for the W FL Panhandle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

Southeast winds will increase today as low pressure attempts to
develop over the waters with numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may produce waterspouts. Winds will increase to 20
to 25 knots west of the Ochlockonee River to the Okaloosa-Walton
County line with gusts around 30 knots, then gradually decrease
from west to east this evening and early tonight. Brief gale-
force gusts are possible. Wave heights will peak around 5 to 6
feet just offshore over the waters west of the Ochlockonee River.
A brief period of tranquil boating conditions is expected on
Thursday, with winds increasing in advance of a cold front on
Friday and Saturday, possibly to around 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

No major fire weather concerns outside of potentially low
dispersions today. Widespread rain is expected today with a slight
chance for thunderstorms over the region. Chances for precip wind
down late in the evening and into early Wednesday morning with dry
weather following. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms
returns Friday and Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

A couple rounds of heavy rainfall are possible over the next week.
The first potential comes today. Expected rainfall totals through
Wednesday morning are around 1-2 inches, though localized totals
could be as high as 3-5 inches. This is highly dependent on the
track and location of storms, with one scenario favoring the FL
Panhandle Gulf coastal areas, and another extending this further
inland into Southeast AL and generally west of the Flint River
in GA. Should the rain fall in a short period of time, this could
cause some flash flood concerns, and the Weather Prediction
Center continues to outline our Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) in
a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for today.

Late week's event could bring even more heavy rainfall. Most likely
rainfall totals are now around 1 to 3 inches. But there is a
higher end possibility with the late week system with the
reasonable worst case rainfall of 4 to 7 inches. Placement and
totals will have to be refined in later forecasts.

Looking at the rivers, this first round of rainfall may cause some
rises, but won't cause many issues on the rivers. The second round
of rainfall however could prove problematic for the rivers. Given
that there is a signal for heavy rainfall across much of Alabama and
Georgia, expect rises on the ACF basin and possibly the Pea and
Choctawhatchee basins as well. The degree of rises and potential
river flooding remains to be seen, but most ensembles agree that
minor flooding would be most likely, but this will likely change to
some extent over the coming days. Stay tuned.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  63  79  58 / 100  90  20   0
Panama City   70  62  76  59 / 100  70  10   0
Dothan        70  60  78  55 / 100  80  10   0
Albany        68  61  77  54 / 100 100  20   0
Valdosta      72  63  78  58 /  90  90  30   0
Cross City    75  61  78  59 /  70 100  30   0
Apalachicola  68  62  73  60 / 100  70  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ108-
     112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ750-770.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 1
     AM EST /midnight CST/ Wednesday for GMZ752-755-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Young