Flash Flood Warning 99, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
702 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE
LATE THURSDAY...
...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday night)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A cold front, slowly moving across the region today, will induce
some showers and storms across the region through this evening.
The upper-level trough associated with this cold front will help
slingshot a tropical cyclone north across the region tomorrow.

All eyes then turn to Hurricane Helene. Helene is currently just
offshore, to the northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula and has been
improving its structure over the last few hours with a ragged eye
trying to take shape. Helene is expected to continue intensifying
while also expanding the size of its wind field. It is likely
that Helene will make landfall along the Florida Big Bend coast
tomorrow as a powerful Major Hurricane. Just before landfall,
Helene's 34-knot (tropical storm force) wind field is expected to
extend 200-250 miles to the north and east from the center, and
around 110 miles to the south and west of the center. This large
wind field will allow for hours of continuous strong onshore wind
to contribute to high storm surge. This is a reminder that threats
associated with Hurricanes/Tropical systems extend far beyond the
center, and well outside the forecast cone.

Storm Surge: The most dangerous hazard associated with
Hurricanes. There is increasing confidence of Catastrophic and/or
potentially Unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay. Storm
surge may begin to arrive as early as late Wednesday night ahead
of the strongest winds, building through landfall. Current storm
surge values across the Bay are: Carrabelle to Suwannee River, 15
to 20 feet. Apalachicola to Carrabelle, 10 to 15 feet. Indian
Pass to Apalachicola, 6 to 10 feet. Mexico Beach to Indian Pass,
3 to 5 feet. Rest of Bay county, 1 to 3 feet.

REMINDER: storm surge DOES NOT include wave action, when
including waves on top of storm surge inundation, these values
could be higher, potentially allowing for greater inland
penetration. The threat to life is significant.

Winds: While exact impacts will be heavily dependent on the
eventual track, expect Catastrophic wind damage near the eventual
landfall point and inland along the track. Widespread and
prolonged power outages, damage to critical infrastructure,
Catastrophic damage to trees and powerlines, widespread
inaccessibility due to blocked roads, and damage to well-built
structures will all be possible, particularly close to and east of
the track. Power outages will likely last days, if not weeks,
near where it makes landfall. Due to the quick forward speed of
Helene, significant wind damage may extend well into Georgia.

Flooding Rain: Widespread heavy rainfall is forecast with this
system and will likely lead to both flash flooding and riverine
flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible ahead of Helene today, perhaps
enhancing the overall flooding threat on Thursday as Helene moves
through the area. Even though the hurricane is forecast to be moving
quickly, very high rainfall rates and already saturated soils in some
places will still combine for a serious flood risk across the region.
Be prepared for flash flooding and quickly rising rivers and streams.
A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. The WPC currently
has most of the region within a Moderate Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 3 of 4) and a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 4 of 4) near where Helene eventually makes landfall.

Tornadoes: While not the highest threat with this system, several
tornadoes will be possible, generally along the east of the
eventual track.

PLEASE heed all local evacuation orders by your local officials,
Helene has the potential to become a generational storm and the
threat it poses is significant to life and property. Every attempt
should be made to finish all preparations by sunset tonight as
tropical storm force winds begin to impact the region tomorrow
morning.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Helene will be pulling away quickly through central and northern
Georgia Friday morning. A shower or two may linger Friday morning,
but most of the region should be on the drier side of Helene as it
pulls away. Speaking of drier air, it will advect in on the backside
of Helene and lead to drier conditions to end the work week and
Saturday. The H5 low responsible for pulling Helene up through our
area will finally be on the move Saturday night into Sunday and may
help spark an isolated shower, maybe a thunderstorm, to close out
the weekend. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances remain
possible early next week as the H5 low moseys through and drags a
weak cold front through the area.

Temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s for highs and the
upper 60s to lower 70s for lows each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Peripheral showers and storms from Helene and a cold front slowly
moving across the region are currently inducing some showers and
storms across the region. Helene is expected to impact the region
as a Major Hurricane just beyond the TAF period tomorrow night.
However, ahead of landfall, rainbands associated with Helene will
bring heavy downpours and thunderstorms that will impact all
terminals late tomorrow morning into the evening. MVFR to IFR
conditions will prevail with LIFR conditions common within
rainbands. Winds will continue to increase throughout the day with
gusts greater than 40 to 50 knots expected at all terminals
towards the end of the TAF period. Terminals along the center of
the track have the potential to see hurricane force winds tomorrow
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

At 11 am EDT Tuesday, the center of Hurricane Helene was located off
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Helene will move
northward across the eastern Gulf on Wednesday and Thursday, rapidly
strengthening to a major hurricane before making landfall along the
Big Bend Coast late Thursday. Helene will quickly move inland on
Friday, so conditions will improve over the waters. Gentle to
moderate southwest breezes will prevail this weekend, as a large
area of low pressure spins over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Helene is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane along
the Big Bend coast late Thursday. Heavy, flooding rain will begin
as soon as tonight, well in advance of the center of Helene.
Tree damage will be most widespread in the right eyewall of the
hurricane. The fast forward speed of the hurricane will spread
damaging winds further inland than your typical hurricane, posing
the risk of tree damage well north into our Georgia districts on
Thursday night. Preparations for Helene should be completed
today. Weather conditions will improve going into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Primary focus continues to be on the approach of Hurricane Helene to
the region. The system has the potential to bring significant rain
to the region, even accounting for its fast forward motion as it
nears the Florida Big Bend. Model guidance has been in good
agreement that a precursor event of heavy rainfall will overspread
the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle this afternoon and tonight with
the bulk of the rainfall arriving later on Thursday. A slight risk
for flash flooding (level 2 out of 4) through tonight exists in the
western Florida Big Bend with a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) in all
other areas of the CWA.

There is now a High Risk (level 4 out of 4) for flash flooding
across much of the Florida Big Bend, eastern Florida Panhandle, and
the southwestern portion of Georgia for Thursday into Thursday night
due to the passage of Hurricane Helene. The rest of the forecast
area is included in a Moderate risk for flash flooding (level 3 out
of 4) for Thursday. Rainfall amounts across most of the region
totaling 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
approaching 10 to 15 inches are forecast through early Friday. These
amounts will lead to considerable urban flash flooding along with
the potential for moderate flooding, especially on the Ochlockonee
River Basin. Depending on where the heaviest rains are distributed
inland, it is entirely possible that other river basins could
experience moderate riverine flooding in the days ahead.

For storm surge information, please refer to the latest information
from the National Hurricane Center. This is an extremely dangerous
storm surge threat in the Apalachee Bay. Storm Surge around
Apalachee Bay will not just merely be a coastal event in this
system, but will spread many miles inland. If ordered to evacuate,
heed the advice of local emergency managers -it could save your
life!

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  79  70  84 /  90 100  90  10
Panama City   72  78  72  83 /  90 100  60  10
Dothan        71  76  66  80 /  80 100  80  10
Albany        71  78  69  81 /  90 100 100  10
Valdosta      73  81  73  85 /  90 100  90  10
Cross City    74  84  75  87 /  90 100  80  20
Apalachicola  74  80  74  83 / 100 100  70  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-
     108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ007>010-012-108-112.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ011-013>019-026>029-034-114-115-118-127-
     128-134.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ027-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

     Hurricane Warning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for ALZ065>069.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ065-066-068.

     Hurricane Warning for ALZ067-069.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ750-770.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ730-752-755-765-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Reese

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
644 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     Funnel Cloud     Pineboro                31.18N 83.68W
09/25/2024                   Colquitt           GA   Trained Spotter

            A trained spotter called and sent in
            pictures of a funnel cloud in Colquitt
            County.

&&

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
702 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

GAZ125-127>129-131-144>148-157-158-252345-
Berrien GA-Tift GA-Worth GA-Colquitt GA-Baker GA-Dougherty GA-
Irwin GA-Mitchell GA-Cook GA-Turner GA-Grady GA-Thomas GA-
702 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL COOK...NORTHERN GRADY...
IRWIN...BERRIEN...SOUTHERN TURNER...SOUTHEASTERN DOUGHERTY...
MITCHELL...CENTRAL BAKER...NORTHERN THOMAS...COLQUITT...TIFT AND
WORTH COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 702 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Willacoochee to near Cairo. Movement was
northwest at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Tifton, Moultrie, Pelham, Putney, Ocilla, Sylvester, Cairo,
Camilla, Nashville, Adel, Albany, Sparks, Enigma, Omega, Norman Park,
Baconton, Lenox, Poulan, and Doerun.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3129 8305 3104 8373 3084 8419 3098 8438
      3108 8438 3108 8451 3111 8454 3116 8454
      3163 8403 3168 8329 3152 8308 3146 8315
      3140 8314 3133 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 122DEG 27KT 3139 8305 3095 8419

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
726 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Tornado          3 W Cool Spring         31.23N 83.65W
09/25/2024                   Colquitt           GA   Law Enforcement

            Georgia Highway Patrol reported a brief
            touchdown. No damage reported at this time.

0721 PM     Flash Flood      Moultrie                31.18N 83.79W
09/25/2024                   Colquitt           GA   Law Enforcement

            Water reported over the road at 1st Ave and
            3rd Street.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
727 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     Flash Flood      2 SE Wewahitchka        30.09N 85.18W
09/25/2024                   Gulf               FL   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland, Yard Flooding.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
740 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Flash Flood      Abbeville               31.57N 85.25W
09/25/2024                   Henry              AL   Law Enforcement

            A few reports of road flooding in Abbeville.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
801 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Flash Flood      Dillon                  30.90N 83.89W
09/25/2024                   Thomas             GA   Law Enforcement

            Water over the roadway at Airport road and
            Dillon Road.

0800 PM     Flash Flood      2 W Dillon              30.90N 83.93W
09/25/2024                   Thomas             GA   Law Enforcement

            Water over the roadway at Highway 319N and
            Sanford Road.

&&