Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
146 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

PoPs have been reduced to better represent the isolated coverage
we are currently seeing and expect to continue overnight,
particularly with storms mostly occurring over our western zones.
Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A broken band of heavy rain continues from Wakulla county up into
Clay county in Georgia along an area of 925mb convergence. Locally
heavy rain is the primary concern within this band of rain as rain
rates of consistently been between 1 to 3 inches per hour with
occasional rain rates up to 4"/hr. A stationary front is forecast to
get pushed southwest across the area thanks to a 1025+mb high in the
Northeast and a developing area of low pressure off the Carolinas.
That will help push rain chances south and west into the Florida
Panhandle for Sunday. Locally heavy rain is still the primary
concern thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs) between 1.8" to
2.0". Soils are still really saturated across portions of the
Florida Panhandle and western Florida Big Bend, so localized
flooding is a concern during the day Sunday, especially along the
Forgotten Coast.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal tonight with lows
in the middle 70s for most locations. Daytime highs are expected to
remain in the 80s for highs for much of the area outside of our
northern Georgia counties who could stay in the upper 70s if enough
cloud cover lingers throughout the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Continued troughing and rain looks to be the name of the game in the
short term. Remnants associated with Francine continue to plague the
region with precip as areas that have experienced over a foot of
rainfall possibly receiving more. A disturbance off the southeast
Atlantic coast looks to deepen and in doing so looks to finally
absorb these remnants as it heads up the Atlantic coast.
At the surface, instability will be limited as this disturbance
off the coast pulls down northerly air on its western side.
However, aloft the winds to look to be out of the west-southwest.
This could lead to overrunning stratiform precip, which if
training occurs could lead to additional flooding concerns,
especially over our coastal Florida counties.

Expect overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to low 70s with
daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

In the extended the aforementioned disturbance allows troughiness
to continue across eastern CONUS. This will place us under
persistent north to northwest flow allowing us some reprieve from
rainfall with lower PoPs expected as the stationary front is
pushed southward. Beyond the extended both the GFS and Euro agree
that the aforementioned disturbance actually looks to head back
south, and might impact the area the following week. We'll have to
see how this evolves over the next few days.

Expect temps to gradually warm back up into the upper 80s and low
90s with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

In general, ceilings are expected to start out in the MVFR to IFR
range this morning across the area. Scattered showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms are expected to be near DHN and ECP this morning
and into the afternoon hours with the best chance of thunderstorms
this afternoon. IFR ceilings this morning are expected to improve to
MVFR later this morning and possibly VFR for a few spots this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Winds will be generally be light across the waters over the next
several days, but given the presence of a stationary front and waves
of low pressure, wind direction will be variable through the next 5
days. This front will also keep the weather rather unsettled with
daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

No fire weather concerns are anticipated the next several days
thanks to recent wetting rains, a moist airmass in place, and a
chance of showers and thunderstorms into next work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The wet pattern continues across the area for the next several days.
A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Alabama and most of
southwest and south central Georgia. This is due to the HREF and
other guidance suggesting that bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms
could develop along a stationary front this evening. The best
chance will be in the Flood Watch area, but some localized heavy
downpours cannot be ruled out across far southern Georgia and the
Florida counties.

For Sunday through Tuesday, the stalled front will linger along the
coast, unfortunately. This along with waves of low pressure will
continue to yield a threat of localized heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in areas that have seen 6 to 12 inches of rain (or more)
already. We'll need to monitor for any potential flood watches for
coastal areas during the next couple days.

On the riverine front, depending on where heavy rainfall sets up
over the next several days, rises on area rivers are possible, but
probabilities of minor flood are relatively low outside of some of
the smaller creeks.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  70  81  69 /  70  20  60  30
Panama City   84  71  83  70 /  70  50  70  60
Dothan        79  68  79  67 /  70  50  50  30
Albany        80  68  79  67 /  60  20  40  20
Valdosta      82  69  81  69 /  60  20  50  20
Cross City    87  72  86  71 /  60  20  60  20
Apalachicola  83  72  81  72 /  50  50  70  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     FLZ009>015-026-112-114-115.

GA...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>123-142-143-
     155.

AL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Young

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1010 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Flash Flood      Headland                31.35N 85.34W
09/14/2024                   Henry              AL   911 Call Center

            Flash flooding reported across Headland.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1029 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     Flash Flood      3 ENE Kinsey            31.32N 85.31W
09/14/2024                   Henry              AL   Public

            Public reported County Road 22 is under
            water.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1232 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     Flash Flood      Pansey                  31.15N 85.18W
09/15/2024                   Houston            AL   Public

            Public report via social media of flooding
            in the Pansey area.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1246 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     Flash Flood      Malone                  30.96N 85.16W
09/15/2024                   Jackson            FL   911 Call Center

            Report of flooding in Malone which resulted
            in a sewer backup.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
110 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     Flash Flood      Headland                31.35N 85.34W
09/15/2024                   Henry              AL   911 Call Center

            Flooding still ongoing in the Headland area.

&&