Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
152 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Minimal changes were made to the forecast this morning. The
heaviest convection still has been confined to the stationary
boundary off the Forgotten Coast of Florida whereas rainfall
across the Panhandle and interior portions of the Big Bend have
generally been light and stratiform.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

It's really beginning to feel like Groundhog Day around here. As has
been the case the past couple of days, a stalled front off our coast
will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms throughout the
period. Those showers then get pushed north over our land areas as
the day progresses with some of the rain locally heavy at times.
Drier air pushing in from the north will hit a roadblock as it nears
a line between Tifton and Dothan. As a result, rain chances will
linger for our Florida and southern Georgia counties through the
afternoon and into the early evening. Most of the rain should push
offshore tonight with a few lingering light showers or areas of
drizzle remaining possible over our Florida and southern Georgia
Counties. There is the potential for a bit of fog tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will be highly dependent on how much sunshine you get
this afternoon. While most areas are forecast to see at least a
little bit, the best opportunity for that will be in southeastern
Alabama where highs are forecast to climb into the lower to middle
80s; elsewhere, temperatures are forecast to generally remain in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight will range from the middle to
upper 60s to the north to the lower 70s to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

The upper level low crawls up the Canadian and northeast US border
Monday, with upper level high pressure building over the FL
peninsula. This will keep the aforementioned stationary boundary
draped and meandering over the Gulf. The name of the game will be,
how far north does the boundary surge. Rain chances remain best
over the FL counties and perhaps creeping just north of I-10, with
thunder chances remaining low. East to northeast flow may keep
portions of SW GA and SE AL dry under a mix of sun and clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

No major changes to the forecast for this period as unsettled
weather looks to continue. An area we will continue to watch is
an area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. Guidance at this
point continues to have this system organizing into a tropical
cyclone early this week (70-80% of development the next 2-7 days).
We'll need to watch how this system tracks and interacts with the
frontal boundary. Regardless of where it goes, we should continue
to see partly to mostly cloudy skies through the period and
showers and isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures generally
look to be in the low to perhaps mid 80s, while overnight lows
stay mostly confined to the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

MVFR conditions with embedded areas of IFR, especially across VLD,
will likely continue through the afternoon hours with scattered
light rain into the evening. Conditions could improve to VFR at
DHN/ECP this afternoon but expect a return to MVFR/IFR ceilings
overnight as low-level stratus redevelops at all terminals across
the region. Similar to today, conditions will slowly improve to
MVFR after daybreak and another round of scattered showers is
likely, especially at ECP/TLH/VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Unsettled weather is expected to continue thanks to a lingering
frontal boundary draped across the Northern Gulf. High rain
chances remain in the forecast with cells capable of waterspouts,
locally gusty winds, lightning, and reduced visibility from heavy
rain. Otherwise, look for easterly to perhaps southeasterly
moderate to fresh breezes through midweek. There could be a few
nights where exercise caution conditions are met.

An area of low pressure is also being monitored by the NHC over
the Bay of Campeche and has a medium of high of tropical
development over the next 2 to 7 days. This system is forecast to
move north paralleling the Texas Coast while interacting with the
aforementioned front. Depending on the evolution, hazardous marine
conditions could materialize early to mid next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Drier conditions are arriving from the north as a cold front
crawls through the region. This will lead to breaks in the clouds,
less rain, and slightly stronger northeasterly transport winds
across our northern districts this afternoon. Meanwhile, abundant
cloud cover and passing showers remain possible for our Florida
districts, especially the Florida Big Bend, today and will keep
poor dispersions around today. Overall, fire weather concerns
remain low the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Wet and unsettled weather is forecast for the next several days
due to a stalled frontal boundary meandering over the Gulf.
Showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will be possible each
day, primarily for the FL counties. Given the moist airmass in
place, we could see a few bouts of heavier rain. Nuisance flooding
to perhaps localized areas of flash flooding will be possible,
especially for areas that have received higher amounts of rain or
over poor drainage or urban areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   81  71  81  70 /  60  40  30  10
Panama City   82  70  83  71 /  70  40  40  30
Dothan        82  67  82  68 /  40  20  10  10
Albany        79  67  80  66 /  50  30  10  10
Valdosta      80  69  80  69 /  70  40  30  10
Cross City    83  72  82  73 /  70  50  50  20
Apalachicola  81  74  82  73 /  80  60  70  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...KR