Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
639 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

A warm front has set up to our north, allowing for southerly flow to
continue into the region this morning. Temperatures currently sit in
the mid 60s to near 70 degrees with dew points generally holding in
the mid to upper 60s. Widespread low and midlevel cloud is being
observed across the region and should continue through the morning.
We've had some isolated rain showers develop across the western FL
Panhandle, the Wiregrass, and western portion of Peanut Country. To
the south in the Gulf, showers and thunderstorms have pushed into
the Emerald and Forgotten coasts. Showers and storms might become
more scattered in nature over the next few hours, with chances
increasing closer to daybreak. Storms could be strong to severe with
this, with chances increasing as the cold front and associated
storms advances into the region later this morning. Parameters
remain similar to yesterday with 0-6km shear being around 50-70kt,
MUCAPE around 500-1000J/kg, and SRH 200-300m2/s2. There is some
uncertainty into how much instability we'll be able to tap into due
to the cloud cover. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be
the main hazard threats for today, though heavy rain and hail could
be possible. Once the front exits the region late this afternoon
into the evening, dry air filters in behind it leading to a stretch
of quiet weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 259 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

A tranquil period of weather is on tap for midweek. Deep layer flow
becomes anticyclonic with drying through the column increasing sun
on Tuesday. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Pressure gradient
in place with the diurnal boundary layer leads to northwest wind
gusts around 20 mph. As high pressure settles into the region,
radiational cooling will promote lows below guidance on Wednesday
morning, with widespread 30s away from the gulf coast. Highs on
Wednesday moderating into the 60s. For Wednesday night and Thursday,
the high begins to move to the east, with the low-level flowing
veering from north to west. Expect to see increasing high clouds,
with warmer lows around 40 Wednesday night and highs around 70 on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

The next southern stream storm system moves into the region with the
potential for heavy rainfall. The track has shifted a bit south, but
this is of low confidence. If this holds, the main concern would be
heavy rainfall, with slight chances of thunder closer to the coast.
Precip chances will increase on Friday, with a wet weekend in store,
followed by improving weather on Monday. Highs will average below
normal, with lows above normal, given the cloud cover and precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

Overnight convection was rather limited causing the TAFs to be a
bit out of sync. Adjusted the cigs and the precip timing as a
result, but they may need to be finessed. The main story for
today's TAF cycle now that the stratus is out will be the rain and
thunderstorms. Expect periods of MVFR TO IFR conditions as these
move through, with LIFR conditions possible in the strongest of
storms or cells. Once the cold front moves through, conditions
improve for a bit. Tonight, perhaps around or after 6Z stratus may
move in from the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

Southerly winds will increase with the approach of a cold front
reaching advisory levels this morning, then clocking around to the
northwest tonight with the passage of the front, and remaining
elevated through Tuesday morning. A brief period of westerly gale-
force wind gusts is possible with the cold frontal passage late
today into tonight, mainly for the near and offshore waters west of
Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa-Walton County line. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms will increase over the waters today with
the approach of the cold front. Some storms may have wind gusts in
excess of 40 knots, waterspouts, and small hail. Seas will peak from
6 to 9 feet today and tonight for the waters west of the Ochlockonee
River. Meanwhile, as a moist air mass overspreads the cooler shelf
waters, patchy fog is possible today. Looking ahead, high pressure
builds into the waters by midweek with a return to more tranquil
boating conditions, before winds increase this weekend to advisory
levels with the approach of low pressure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

The warm front is well to our north this morning which will allow
for some showers and thunderstorm development ahead of the cold
front later today. This front will bring another round of showers
and storms some of which could be strong to severe. The primary
hazards will be damaging wind gusts and the potential for a few
tornadoes, though periods of heavy rain, hail, and frequent
lightning could be possible. Once the front moves through, dry
weather sets up for the week. MinRH values begin to falter Tuesday,
to around 30 to 40 percent, with Wednesday being even lower around
25 to 35 percent. The latest dispersion forecast keeps us above any
low or high thresholds, though Wednesday's dispersions could dip in
the mid 20s to near 30.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 259 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

While astronomical tides are beginning to come down as we move away
from the new moon, coastal gages are now running around 1.5 feet
above the predicted tides, as onshore southerly flow/longer period
swell increase. This will continue until winds clock around to a
westerly direction with the cold frontal passage early tonight.
So, the the threat for minor flooding around the times of high tide
will persist in Apalachee Bay through Monday evening. As a result,
the Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect.

For rainfall amounts for the system today, we sill expect on average
between 1 and 2 inches across the Hydrologic Service Area. But there
is the potential for locally higher amounts, especially north of a
Tifton to Enterprise line, where training of storms is possible.
In this area, some isolated rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are
possible, and WPC has indicated a slight risk of excessive rainfall.
Flash flooding is possible if these amounts are realized.

After the system exits the region tonight, a dry period of weather
is on tap, before a southern stream system with the potential for
heavy rainfall arrives late Friday into next weekend.

For area rivers, portions of the Flint, Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee,
and Suwanee are either in action stage or forecast to reach action
stage. With the expected rainfall today Monday, as well as rainfall
with the system next weekend, some minor flooding on area rivers may
result by the middle of this week into the next weekend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  46  61  36 / 100  10   0   0
Panama City   70  45  61  40 / 100   0   0   0
Dothan        73  42  58  35 / 100   0   0   0
Albany        74  43  59  34 / 100  10   0   0
Valdosta      75  46  60  36 /  90  20   0   0
Cross City    75  48  64  36 /  80  50   0   0
Apalachicola  69  47  59  42 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon to 11
     AM EST /10 AM CST/ Tuesday for FLZ108-112-114.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for FLZ115-
     118-127-128-134.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...LF