Flash Flood Warning 116, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
830 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
through the evening. Some showers may produce heavy rainfall
resulting in localized flash flooding. No major changes have been
done to the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

A surface trough extends from the eastern Florida Big Bend into
south central and eastern Georgia. Sunshine has broken through the
thick cloud deck in spots, resulting in rather impressive
instability. there is a little bit of weak low-level shear, so a
rotating storm cannot be entirely ruled out along with some gusty
wind potential in the stronger thunderstorms. However, the main
threat going into this evening and tonight will be the heavy rain
and flood threat. PWATs according to SPC Mesoanalysis are around 2.2
to 2.4 inches, which is near daily maxima for early November. The
surface trough will meander slightly farther to the west tomorrow,
providing a focus for the heavy rainfall. Some of the hi-res
guidance is quite bullish with rainfall totals where ultimately sets
up. Rainfall totals have come up to 3 to 5 inches for the I-75
corridor into the northeast Florida Big Bend with about 0.5 to 1.5
inches elsewhere. However, chances for 6 to 10 inches of rain are
around 40 to 60% near the I-75 corridor. Thus, the Flood Watch
remains in effect for our northernmost and easternmost Georgia
counties in the northern Jefferson and Madison Counties. Locally
heavy downpours are possible elsewhere, but the Flood Watch
represents our current highest confidence.

The trough starts to move westward on Thursday, shifting the
potential for rainfall into southwest Georgia and the Florida Big
Bend. However, the amount of moisture decreases and the surface
trough begins to dampen. Thus, the risk of flash flooding and heavy
rainfall appears to be lower as PWATs drop to around 1.7 to 1.9
inches, which is still well above normal for early November. But,
still can't rule out some localized flash flooding.

Otherwise, it's going to be extremely warm and humid with lows
tonight in the lower to middle 70s and highs tomorrow in the lower
to middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

East to west mid level ridge will build from the western Atlantic
across the Florida peninsula into the northern Gulf. This will
help steer Hurricane Rafael further west into the central Gulf. As
Rafael and the moisture axis shifts west, the main moisture tap
begins to weaken with PWATs falling under 2 inches. As the
aiding mid level trough moves off the east coast, mid and upper
support weaken as well with rain chances on the decline with
mainly slight chances for rain Thursday night and Friday. Friday
night a cold front will slide into the southeast US, positioned
just to our north in northern AL/GA. Skies will be mostly cloudy
this period with a few breaks Friday afternoon with highs reaching
into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

Rafael is forecast to weaken, per NHC, this weekend as it
encounters a more hostile environment. A strong upper low will
eject from the four corners region this weekend with an associated
surface low pressure area and cold front through the southern
Plains. Heading into Sunday and beyond, confidence is low on the
eventual evolution of the pattern as another slug of tropical
moisture could arrive early next week, how a weakening Rafael
interacts or becomes absorbed into the eastward moving low
pressure system, and position of the cold front if/when all these
factors come together. Nevertheless, have kept rain chances low at
this time with room to nudge as confidence increases and the days
draw closer. Highs will reach the 80s each day and defendant on
the amount of cloud cover each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the
evening and overnight hours. MVFR vsbys will be possible in
heavier showers. Ceilings will be at IFR/LIFR levels through the
night and continue into the morning hours. MVFR conditions look to
return during the afternoon on Thursday following 18z. Winds will
be light from the east, then become variable later in the
afternoon into the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 829 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

As of 8pm EST, Hurricane Rafael has moved off the northwestern
Cuban coast as a Category 2 hurricane into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. The storm is still forecast to move northwestward
further into the Gulf of Mexico and begin a weakening trend over
the next few days. For our waters, expect long-period swells to
create high seas reaching Advisory levels by Thursday evening for
our offshore waters through Friday night. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop through Thursday
then decrease heading into the weekend. Cautionary conditions will
exist through most northeast Gulf waters tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

Low mixing heights from abundant rain and cloud cover will keep
dispersions low area-wide on Thursday. We'll start to see more
breaks in the clouds and less rain Friday and Saturday with
improving dispersions across the area. Transport winds will remain
generally out of the east around 10 to 15 mph over the next several
days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

Extended the flood watch southward down the I75 corridor to
include Jefferson and Madison counties in Florida. The moderate
risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall was also extended
south to the Florida state line and includes those counties in the
flood watch. The slight risk (level 2 of 4) was expanded to
include most of our forecast area.

After reviewing the 12Z high resolution guidance, the trends
continue to indicate heavy rainfall along I75 from now through
Thursday morning. Most likely rainfall amounts will be in the 3-5
inch range with an increasing likelihood for 6-10 inches across
the flood watch area. The amount, duration, and intensity of
rainfall will lead to small creeks and streams filling up quickly
as well as instances of flooding in low lying and poor drainage
areas. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be common.

River ensemble data implies that 5-7" of rain would be needed for
reaching minor flood stage for basins such as the Lee County creeks,
Withlacoochee in GA, and the Ochlockonee. This threshold is high
right now due to the recent weeks of dry weather, but it is an
attainable threshold for any basin that gets a stationary or slow-
moving band of heavy rain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  83  70  83 /  70  60  20  10
Panama City   73  83  71  84 /  50  50  20  10
Dothan        71  81  69  82 /  80  50  20  20
Albany        71  81  69  81 /  90  60  20  10
Valdosta      73  83  69  84 /  90  60  20  10
Cross City    74  86  69  86 /  50  20  10   0
Apalachicola  74  80  72  80 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for FLZ018-019.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for GAZ120>131-144>148-
     157>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
441 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

FLZ017-018-GAZ157-158-062230-
Inland Jefferson FL-Leon FL-Grady GA-Thomas GA-
441 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LEON...SOUTHEASTERN
GRADY AND SOUTHWESTERN THOMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EST...

At 440 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Monticello, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Moncrief, Festus, Lake Iamonia, Bradfordville, Rocky
Hill, Killearn Lakes, Beachton, Miccosukee, Pisgah Church, and Lake
Miccosukee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3048 8415 3065 8430 3066 8430 3067 8431
      3069 8429 3069 8434 3070 8433 3081 8410
      3058 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 149DEG 13KT 3061 8409

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE