Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521

July 12, 202417 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 12, 2024, 7:28 PM CDT for 17 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2024, 7:28 PM CDT (00:28 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2024, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

Counties Burleigh County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Stark County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

7 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	BIS	Dunn	62 min
Jul 12, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, McLean, Pierce, Sheridan, Wells	60 min
Jul 12, 8:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer, Oliver	56 min
Jul 12, 9:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Grant, Hettinger	62 min
Jul 12, 9:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton, Oliver	48 min
Jul 12, 9:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Sioux	43 min
Jul 12, 10:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Morton	49 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 4053 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -64 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1480 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 70 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 84 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 4.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

368 
WWUS20 KWNS 130020
SEL1  
SPC WW 130020
NDZ000-130500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
725 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western and Central North Dakota

* Effective this Friday night from 725 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat for large
hail generally 1-1.75 inches in diameter, and severe/damaging winds
around 60-70 mph as they move east-southeastward this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of
Minot ND to 60 miles south southwest of Bismarck ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Gleason

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 8:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benson, Cavalier, Dunn, Eddy, Foster, Griggs and 12 more	93 min
Jul 12, 10:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barnes, Benson, Billings, Burleigh, Cavalier, Dunn and 21 more	84 min
Jul 13, 3:44 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barnes, Cass, Ransom, Richland, Sargent	91 min
Jul 13, 5:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Cass, Ransom, Richland, Sargent, Traill	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2024 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.