Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024
Mesoscale Discussion 710
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 8, 2024, 5:28 PM EDT for 39 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 62 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 8, 2024, 5:28 PM EDT (21:28 UTC)
- Expired
- May 8, 2024, 6:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 62 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 39 counties
Amelia County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, York County, VA
The radar
The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 839 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -14 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 734 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 3 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 2 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 6 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
651
ACUS11 KWNS 082129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082128
VAZ000-NCZ000-082230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024
Areas affected...southeast Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 082128Z - 082230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated storm across southeast Virginia will pose a
large hail and damaging wind threat through the evening.
DISCUSSION...A storm has formed within an area of weak low-level
confluence across south-central Virginia. The airmass ahead of this
storm is very unstable with 1500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. This storm
appears to be mostly multi-cellular at this time which is consistent
with around 25 to 30 knots of effective shear (per SPC
mesoanalysis). Greater storm organization is possible as this storm
cluster moves east into greater instability this evening. The
environment will support both large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Given the isolated nature of the threat, no watch is expected.
..Bentley/Hart.. 05/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36827883 37707752 37747595 37027568 36537591 36527799
36597882 36827883Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2024Every mesoscale discussion in 2024
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.