Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024

Mesoscale Discussion 710

May 8, 202439 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 8, 2024, 5:28 PM EDT for 39 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 8, 2024, 5:28 PM EDT (21:28 UTC)
Expired
May 8, 2024, 6:30 PM EDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%
All 39 counties

Amelia County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2024-05-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 839 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2024-05-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 2 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
839 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
734 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
3 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
6 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

651 
ACUS11 KWNS 082129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082128 
VAZ000-NCZ000-082230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...southeast Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082128Z - 082230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated storm across southeast Virginia will pose a
large hail and damaging wind threat through the evening.

DISCUSSION...A storm has formed within an area of weak low-level
confluence across south-central Virginia. The airmass ahead of this
storm is very unstable with 1500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. This storm
appears to be mostly multi-cellular at this time which is consistent
with around 25 to 30 knots of effective shear (per SPC
mesoanalysis). Greater storm organization is possible as this storm
cluster moves east into greater instability this evening. The
environment will support both large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Given the isolated nature of the threat, no watch is expected.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36827883 37707752 37747595 37027568 36537591 36527799
            36597882 36827883

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2024Every mesoscale discussion in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.