Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024

Mesoscale Discussion 2221

November 8, 202418 counties in Colorado; Cimarron County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 8, 2024, 12:51 PM MST for 18 counties in Colorado; Cimarron County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 8, 2024, 12:51 PM MST (19:51 UTC)
Expired
Nov 8, 2024, 5:15 PM MST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Heavy snow

Counties Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Bent County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Gilpin County, CO, Jefferson County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Otero County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Teller County, CO, Washington County, CO, Cimarron County, OK

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 28 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 355 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2024-11-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 8 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2024-11-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 278 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
452 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
278 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
374 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

179 
ACUS11 KWNS 081951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081951 
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-090015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO into extreme northeast NM and
the western OK Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 081951Z - 090015Z

SUMMARY...Occasional snow rates of 1+ inch per hour will be possible
through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The deep mid/upper-level cyclone over NM that is
supporting the ongoing long-duration snow event is currently in the
process of pivoting north-northeastward, with a weak but deepening
surface low moving northward near the OK/TX Panhandle border, where
2-hour pressure falls of 2-3 mb have been noted. Some continued
deepening of this system is possible through the afternoon, which
will maintain favorable deep ascent across eastern CO and vicinity. 

Persistent low-level moisture transport and ascent attendant to the
cyclone could lead to some increase in snow rates this afternoon
across parts of eastern CO, as precipitation pivots northwestward to
the north of the low. While low-level temperatures will remain
rather marginal, precipitation may become heavy enough to support
occasional snow rates of 1+ inches per hour through the afternoon.

..Dean.. 11/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36520370 36910417 37480474 38490517 39410558 39920555
            40190523 40190392 39980321 39670288 38910272 37940261
            36540249 36530270 36520370

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 8, 5:23 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, El Paso, Kiowa and 6 more4 hr
Nov 8, 12:47 PM MSTTornado WatchSPCCarter, Comanche, Cotton, Jefferson, Love, Stephens and 1 more7 hr
Nov 8, 2:36 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Jefferson, Love, Marshall, Stephens114 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2024Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2024Every mesoscale discussion in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.