Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024
Mesoscale Discussion 1921
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 16, 2024, 2:07 PM CDT for 8 counties in Kansas; 9 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2024, 2:07 PM CDT (19:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 16, 2024, 4:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Butler County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Craig County, OK, Kay County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Washington County, OK
The radar
The Tulsa radar (KINX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1014 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -261 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1775 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 158 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 233 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
182
ACUS11 KWNS 161907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161907
OKZ000-KSZ000-162100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1921
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024
Areas affected...south-central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 161907Z - 162100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A conditional threat of wind and hail will be possible
downstream of WW627 as long-lived supercell and potential for
additional convection develops continues east and southeast.
DISCUSSION...An elevated long-lived supercell continues to track
east along trailing outflow in south-central Kansas south of
Wichita. Visible satellite has shown attempts at new cell
development on the southern flank of outflow as it sags southward
towards northern Oklahoma. Modified soundings would suggest that the
downstream environment may only be weakly capped, as temperatures
have warmed into the low to mid 90s across much of eastern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma. A conditional threat of large hail and
damaging wind may extend downstream with further warming and
weakening of capping occurs and supercells can become surface based,
given MLCAPE around 1000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear 35-40 kts.
This area is being monitored for a downstream watch should
intensification occur. A local extension of WW627 may be needed in
south-central Kansas.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36809765 36419729 36219684 36099647 36049597 36069558
36309499 36599467 36949495 37299541 37819620 37889696
37789767 37219781 36809765SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 7:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Montgomery | 59 min |
| Aug 16, 10:40 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Edwards, Harvey, Hodgeman, Kingman, McPherson and 8 more | 110 min |
| Aug 16, 10:57 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clark and 20 more | 7 hr |
| Aug 15, 11:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Cherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Wagoner | 31 min |
| Aug 16, 3:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian and 27 more | 7 hr |
| Aug 16, 3:55 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Cimarron, Ellis, Roger Mills, Texas | 20 min |
| Aug 16, 6:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Canadian, Cherokee and 29 more | 90 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2024Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2024Every mesoscale discussion in 2024
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.