Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024
Mesoscale Discussion 1908
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 15, 2024, 3:03 PM CDT for 22 counties in Iowa; 6 counties in Kansas; 23 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2024, 3:03 PM CDT (20:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 15, 2024, 5:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 51 counties
Appanoose County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Henry County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ray County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO
The radar
The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 152 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -314 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1395 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 280 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 360 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.6
The text
As transmitted.
886
ACUS11 KWNS 152004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152003
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-152230-
Mesoscale Discussion 1908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
Areas affected...parts of northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri and
southern Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152003Z - 152230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
appears possible as early as 5-7 PM CDT. One or two supercells may
evolve, posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts
and perhaps some potential for a tornado.
DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for convective development remains
generally weak and/or unclear. However, a seasonably moist
boundary-layer along and east of the southeastward advancing weak
surface troughing is becoming moderately unstable across parts of
northeast Kansas into southern Iowa, where CAPE now appears in
excess of 2000 J/kg and mid-level inhibition is eroding. This is
being aided by both continuing insolation and mid-level cooling
associated with a notable short wave perturbation pivoting across
the mid to lower Missouri Valley vicinity. As the exit region of a
40-70 kt westerly jet in the 500-300 mb layer noses across the
stronger destabilization, vertical shear is becoming increasingly
conducive to supercells. Although timing of thunderstorm initiation
remains uncertain, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appear
possible as early as 22-00z, particularly within a corridor
east-southeast of St. Joseph MO through the Missouri/Iowa border
vicinity.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/15/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 40219546 41349399 41859248 41099091 40429178 38959464
39279575 40219546SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 7:09 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fremont | 96 min |
| Aug 14, 9:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Cass, Clarke and 21 more | 115 min |
| Aug 15, 1:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audubon, Carroll, Cass, Crawford, Greene and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Aug 15, 4:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Cass, Clarke, Dallas and 28 more | 7 hr |
| Aug 15, 6:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Cass, Clarke and 33 more | 91 min |
| Aug 14, 11:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Chase, Coffey, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson and 8 more | 88 min |
| Aug 15, 6:02 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chautauqua, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho | 6 hr |
| Aug 15, 4:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Christian, Crawford and 31 more | 2 hr |
| Aug 15, 5:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Crawford, Iron, Madison, Mississippi and 6 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2024Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2024Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2024Every mesoscale discussion in 2024
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.