Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024

Mesoscale Discussion 1613

July 14, 20246 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 14, 2024, 12:56 PM EDT for 6 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2024, 12:56 PM EDT (16:56 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2024, 3:30 PM EDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 64 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Richmond County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Arlington County, VA, Caroline County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA

The radar

The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 940 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -112 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1366 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 53 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 6:29 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaver, Crawford, Erie, Lawrence, Mercer	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2024 Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2024 Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2024 Every mesoscale discussion in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.