Mesoscale Discussion 1421

Issued

Jun 26, 2024, 1:17 AM CDT (06:17 UTC)

Expired

Jun 26, 2024, 3:15 AM CDT

In force

118 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 461

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

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• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462Jun 26, 1:50 AM CDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463Jun 26, 4:10 AM CDT

442 
ACUS11 KWNS 260618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260617 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northern/Central MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461...

Valid 260617Z - 260815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line will continue pose a risk for
damaging gusts, particularly across north-central into central
Missouri. A watch will also be needed downstream across central and
southern Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a southward/southeastward
progressing convective line extending from northeast KS/northwest MO
border intersection vicinity eastward into north-central MO. In
particular, the easternmost extent of this line has shown a notable
increase in southeastward motion over the past hour or so, with
storm motion now estimated between 45 and 50 kt. This is the same
portion of the line that produced a 51 kt gust at KLWD (in Decatur
County IA). These factors, combined with radar velocity data,
indicate the presence of a rear-inflow jet.

Surface observations reveal an outflow boundary from prior
convective that arcs from Linn County MO (just ahead of the bowing
portion of the line) southward to Hickory County MO (50 miles north
of SGF) and back more southeastward through south-central MO. This
boundary could provide a favored corridor for storm progression
later, while also contributing to a greater potential for severe
gusts. The most favored corridor for severe gusts over the next hour
exists from Carroll and Chariton Counties southeastward to Callaway
County. 

Current storm motion take the line to the edge of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 461 around 07Z, perhaps sooner if the line
continues to accelerate. The severe potential will likely extend
past this time, and a new watch will be needed downstream.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40249538 40129401 40319331 39879200 38709048 37429300
            38159486 38829561 40249538

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.