Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024
Mesoscale Discussion 1069
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2024, 5:24 PM CDT for 5 counties in Texas. It was in force for 66 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2024, 5:24 PM CDT (22:24 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2024, 6:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 164 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 56 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -475 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 998 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 59 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 74 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 543 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
727
ACUS11 KWNS 292225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292224
TXZ000-292330-
Mesoscale Discussion 1069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Areas affected...Portions of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateua
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 292224Z - 292330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of transient supercells may develop within the
next 1-2 hours across portions of the Stockton Plateau and Permian
basin. Large hail up to 1.5 to 2.5" in diameter, and perhaps
localized severe wind gusts may accompany these thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KMAF shows continued attempts
of deep moist convection over the Davis Mountains via orographic
ascent and easterly upslope flow. Surface observations across this
region, combined with modified RAP forecast soundings, suggest
localized CINH has eroded here, with very steep mid level lapse
rates in place. Large CAPE within the hail growth zone, combined
with effective deep layer shear magnitudes of 30-35 kt, will promote
some updraft organization. However, more broader scale forcing
mechanisms will limit the overall coverage of the severe threat.
..Barnes/Hart.. 05/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29890320 30360344 31030355 31580283 31570187 30820134
30220124 29910227 29880317 29890320SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 7:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Borden, Crosby, Dawson, Dickens, Fisher, Garza and 8 more | 87 min |
| May 28, 7:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Foard, Hardeman, Wilbarger | 114 min |
| May 28, 7:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dimmit, Jim Hogg, La Salle, Maverick, Starr, Webb and 2 more | 88 min |
| May 28, 8:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brooks, Cameron, Dimmit, Duval, Frio, Hidalgo and 12 more | 6 hr |
| May 28, 8:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Edwards, Gillespie, Kerr, Kimble, Mason and 2 more | 87 min |
| May 28, 10:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brooks, Dimmit, Duval, Frio, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg and 6 more | 2 hr |
| May 29, 1:14 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Garza, Hockley, Lubbock, Lynn | 91 min |
| May 29, 2:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend and 12 more | 118 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2024Every mesoscale discussion in 2024
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.