Wind Advisory 3, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

141 
WWUS75 KSLC 260944
NPWSLC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
244 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

UTZ128-130-131-270045-
/O.EXA.KSLC.WI.Y.0003.240226T1800Z-240227T1200Z/
South Central Utah-Western Canyonlands-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-
Including the cities of Kanab, Escalante, Hanksville, Big Water, 
and Bullfrog
244 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...South Central Utah, Western Canyonlands and Glen 
  Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult due 
  to crosswinds, especially for high profile vehicles and 
  vehicles with trailers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

UTZ101-270045-
/O.CON.KSLC.WI.Y.0003.240226T1800Z-240227T1200Z/
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-
Including the cities of Wendover, Dugway, and Park Valley
244 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
5 AM MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected,
  shifting to the northwest after 6 PM tonight near the Idaho
  border, after 8 PM along I-80 and remaining strong through at 
  least midnight.

* WHERE...Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult due 
  to crosswinds, especially for high profile vehicles and 
  vehicles with trailers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

UTZ120-270045-
/O.CON.KSLC.WI.Y.0002.240227T1200Z-240228T0000Z/
Castle Country-
Including the cities of Price, Castle Dale, and Emery
244 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Castle Country.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult due 
  to crosswinds, especially for high profile vehicles and 
  vehicles with trailers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For information on potential travel impacts visit...
http://udottraffic.utah.gov

846 
WWUS75 KSLC 261940
NPWSLC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1240 PM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

UTZ120-271130-
/O.EXT.KSLC.WI.Y.0002.240227T0000Z-240227T1500Z/
Castle Country-
Including the cities of Price, Castle Dale, and Emery
1240 PM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Castle Country.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult due 
  to crosswinds, especially for high profile vehicles and 
  vehicles with trailers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

UTZ101-271130-
/O.CON.KSLC.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240227T1200Z/
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-
Including the cities of Wendover, Dugway, and Park Valley
1240 PM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph, shifting
  to the northwest after 6 PM tonight near the Idaho border, after
  8 PM along I-80 and remaining strong through at least midnight.

* WHERE...Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult due 
  to crosswinds, especially for high profile vehicles and 
  vehicles with trailers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

UTZ128-130-131-271130-
/O.CON.KSLC.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240227T1200Z/
South Central Utah-Western Canyonlands-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-
Including the cities of Kanab, Escalante, Hanksville, Big Water, 
and Bullfrog
1240 PM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...South Central Utah, Western Canyonlands and Glen 
  Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult due 
  to crosswinds, especially for high profile vehicles and 
  vehicles with trailers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For information on potential travel impacts visit...
http://udottraffic.utah.gov

229 
WWUS75 KSLC 270705
NPWSLC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1205 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2024

UTZ101-270815-
/O.CAN.KSLC.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240227T1200Z/
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-
Including the cities of Wendover, Dugway, and Park Valley
1205 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Occasional wind gusts to 40 mph are possible but the threat of
widespread gusts over 45 mph has ended. Therefore...the wind
advisory has been cancelled.

$$

UTZ120-271500-
/O.CON.KSLC.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240227T1500Z/
Castle Country-
Including the cities of Price, Castle Dale, and Emery
1205 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Castle Country.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM MST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult due 
  to crosswinds, especially for high profile vehicles and 
  vehicles with trailers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

UTZ128-130-131-271200-
/O.CON.KSLC.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240227T1200Z/
South Central Utah-Western Canyonlands-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-
Including the cities of Kanab, Escalante, Hanksville, Big Water, 
and Bullfrog
1205 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...South Central Utah, Western Canyonlands and Glen 
  Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM MST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult due 
  to crosswinds, especially for high profile vehicles and 
  vehicles with trailers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For information on potential travel impacts visit...
http://udottraffic.utah.gov

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
421 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring dry and mild conditions to
Utah and southwest Wyoming through the remainder of the weekend.
Precipitation will return Monday into Tuesday as a strong cold
front crosses the area. Another storm system is poised to impact
the area late in the upcoming weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front will bring rain, snow and wind to much of
  Utah and SW Wyoming Monday into Tuesday. A strong cold front
  will bring a fast transition from valley rain to snow (along
  with a burst of heavy mountain snow) across northern Utah
  Monday night and across central and southern Utah Tuesday
  morning. This has the potential to create hazardous travel
  conditions for the Tuesday morning commute. Uncertainty remains
  regarding the timing of the front.

- Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for northern Utah's
  mountains as well as Uinta County, Wyoming and Winter Weather
  Advisories have been issued for many valley locations across
  northern and central Utah. For zone 101 (northwest Utah) debated
  between a Winter Weather Advisory vs Wind Advisory. Will allow
  the following shift another opportunity to evaluate which hazard
  potential is higher.

- Another strong winter storm looms on the horizon for next
  weekend into early next week, with much uncertainty regarding
  the details such as amounts, wind speeds and rain to snow
  transition timing. This system does have the potential to bring
  very strong winds to the area next weekend.

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Wednesday)...Very low amplitude high
pressure ridging was in place across Utah and Southwest Wyoming
early Sunday morning. Model consensus is in good agreement in
their relative depictions of evolving the flow into a more zonal
one tonight before becoming increasingly southwest on Monday in
advance of an amplifying shortwave trough. Dry, mild conditions
will be in place through much of tonight with high temperatures
reaching 10F-15F above normal for late February.

Above mentioned trough will swing through the area on Tuesday.
Over the last several days, we've discussed uncertainty with the
degree of phasing between the digging northern stream trough and a
closed low located off of the California coast. Latest guidance is
beginning to trend back towards hinting at least some phasing
between the two systems, and this is now allowing for a longer
duration of a more organized coupled jet structure over the area
from late Monday afternoon through Monday evening, thereby
increasing the large-scale ascent over the area while allowing
slightly higher moisture content air to advect across the area
from the southwest. As a result of this subtle shift, a slight
upward shift in QPF and forecast snowfall totals is noted with
this forecast package.

Increasingly moist, southwest upslope flow will result in the
development of mountain snow across terrain favored in such a flow
regime Monday morning, just prior to sunrise. Mountain snow will
gradually increase in coverage as we head through the morning and
early afternoon across the mountains. A new feature that's
increasingly common on latest guidance is the development of
valley rain and mountain snow across southern Utah Monday
afternoon, and this appears to be tied to the increased moist
advection with a nod to the slight phasing between the two systems
noted above. These showers do have some potential to bring gusty
winds down to the surface. Band of enhanced precipitation thanks
to strong low to mid level frontogenesis tied to a strong cold
front looks on track to enter extreme northwest Utah Monday
evening in the 5PM-8PM window. The front will then march south and
east through Tuesday, reaching an Evanston to Logan to Brigham
City to Wendover line between 8PM and 10PM, the Northern Wastach
Front between 10PM-12AM, The Salt Lake, Tooele Valley, Wasatch
Back and Utah valley between 11PM-1AM before finally reaching the
Cedar City area between 11AM and 1PM Tuesday. A burst of moderate
to heavy snow is likely along the front, especially across high
terrain areas. Strong cold advection will force a quick
precipitation changeover from rain to snow and lead to flash
freeze potential on surfaces. All rain is expected for Lower
Washington County. Frontal timing across northern Utah/SW Wyoming
is about an hour faster than forecast 24 hours ago. Snow showers
are likely to persist through much of Tuesday, especially across
the favored NW flow terrain. Given the presence of cyclonic flow
through the day Tuesday, any peeks of sun will lead to surface
heating which could help promote additional snow showers.

There is a low to medium (40-50%) chance for lake effect downwind
of the Great Salt Lake as well on Tuesday. Given cold 700mb
temperatures of minus 15 to minus 18, lake sfc to 700mb delta Ts
are sufficient for lake effect. There is lingering uncertainty
regarding how much the snow-bearing layer may dry out on Tuesday,
thus lake effect potential continues to bounce around. Current
most likely scenario would include lake enhanced/convective shower
activity through the day, generally between Bountiful and Tooele.
Level of organization of this activity will ultimately determine
final amounts.

As the cold front marches south across central and southern Utah
on Tuesday, winds shift from southwest to northwest, and this will
activate the upslope flow machine across the I-15 corridor.
Anticipate a quick drop in temperatures behind the front across
these areas on well from mid to late morning Tuesday, and for
these reasons have issued Winter Weather Advisories here as well
given potential for travel impacts.

Regarding winds, 700mb winds will gradually increase into the
40-50kt range by late Monday afternoon across northern Utah and
in the 30-40kt range across southern Utah. There is some lingering
uncertainty regarding how effectively this wind will mix to the
surface, especially across valley locations. Have held off on any
Wind Advisories at this point for Monday/Monday night as gusts in
the 35-45 mph range are most likely. Should mixing/lapse rates be
more efficient than forecast then gusts in the 45-55 mph range
can't be ruled out for a couple of hours ahead of, along and just
behind the front from later Monday afternoon through Monday
evening. Best candidates for winds to overachieve would be across
northwest Utah, the west desert and southwest Utah. Also
anticipate gusts in the 35-45 mph range in the post frontal
environment across these areas on Tuesday. Gusts in the 45-55 mph
range are most likely in the Wendover and Salt Flats area behind
the front late Monday evening, but there is uncertainty on
duration. An additional complicating factor is uncertainty in
snowfall amounts here. Debated between a Wind Advisory and a
Winter Weather Advisory for zone 101 with enhanced wording on the
winds, but due to lack of confidence have held off on a headline
here for now. Do know the potential exists for a brief burst of
snow along the front and NW gusts of 45-55 mph along/behind the
front which could lead to difficult travel. Across southern Utah,
700mb winds are also forecast to increase to 50kts Monday night in
the pre- frontal environment. Given the tendency for models to
overforecast winds across southern Utah and considering winds will
occur during nocturnal minimum period of strongest mixing, have
held off on any wind headlines for now. Ensemble mean gusts are
generally in the 35-45 mph range. Ensemble max gusts are high
enough to necessitate wind headlines, however, and we will need to
continue to monitor this.

Did have enough confidence to issue a Wind Advisory for Castle
Country on Tuesday as ensemble mean NW wind gusts reach the 45-55
mph range in the post-frontal downslope environment. Ensemble
max/worst case scenario suggests gusts as high as 60-70 mph here.
Should the stability profile become more favorable to support
gusts of this magnitude, a High Wind Warning may be needed.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Wednesday)...Wednesday starts within cool
and drier northwesterly flow behind the departing trough, with flow
overhead gradually shifting more zonal through the day. With the
drier and more stable airmass, not anticipating precipitation. While
afternoon high temperatures look to rebound about 5-10 degrees from
the prior day, these values still end up around 5-10 degrees below
climatological normal for late February.

Thursday and Friday will see the pattern start to shift as deep
layer flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of a strong trough
digging into the PacNW. To start, this will help continue the
warming trend, with afternoon highs Thursday expected slightly above
normal, and by Friday around 5-10 degrees above normal. Next, will
see this trough result in increasing moisture transport as it
approaches. By late Thursday, should see enough orographic forcing
in combination with the moisture to initiate some high elevation
precipitation for the far northern Utah mountains. Isolated to
scattered precipitation chances then continue to spread southward
further into central Utah Friday (including lower elevations) as
synoptic forcing for ascent increases with the stronger jet flow
nosing in. The increasing flow will also help bring some marginal
wind gusts to western Utah Thursday afternoon, with an uptick noted
across much of the forecast area Friday afternoon as the flow
further increases.

Saturday on through the remainder of the forecast period continues
to look interesting as signal remains strong for the trough and an
associated baroclinic zone to push through the region, though
uncertainty in some aspects such as timing remain.

One forecast element that continues to look quite impressive is the
potential for strong wind gusts on Saturday in the prefrontal
environment. Aloft, guidance shows a corridor of H5 winds ~60-90
kts, and H7 winds ~40-70 kts. Timing will certainly remain a factor
to watch, but current models show this coincident with peak daytime
heating into the afternoon, which would enhance potential for mixing
some of this very high momentum air to the surface. Another caveat
is increasing cloud cover as well as precipitation chances, though
would still anticipate precipitation to be capable of mixing some of
these gusts down. Pure NBM guidance shows widespread gusts in the 30-
45 kt range, with potential maximized over the West Desert area.
Using a more probabilistic approach, NBM probability of wind gusts
in excess of 41 kts (47 mph) are around 30-50% for much of the
Wasatch Front, and more in the 70-90% range for much of the West
Desert and surrounding areas. Being many days out still, there's
plenty of moving pieces that need to come together, but some of the
higher end scenarios bear watching.

The other aspect of the forecast is increasing precipitation along
with the push of what appears to be another potentially strong
baroclinic zone. Exact timing remains a bit uncertain with this, but
general consensus is in the Saturday evening to Sunday morning
range. Ensemble 75th/25th percentile H7 temps start around -4C/-7C
on the warm side of the boundary, and fall to around -11C/-16C on
the cold side. Given the spread, some uncertainty will be noted on
snow levels and associated p-type, but so long as sufficient
moisture remains (as current guidance suggests it will), the setup
appears favorable to once again see some low elevation snow,
especially if a sharper push of the baroclinic zone occurs (as some
deterministic guidance shows) and some of the colder H7 temps are
realized. Again, this far out a fair bit of uncertainty remains, but
looks to be another system worth monitoring for day to day trends.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions to prevail, though will see
mid/upper level moisture begin to increase Sunday evening into the
overnight, with increasing cloud cover accordingly. Potential for
diurnal windshift a bit uncertain Sunday, with guidance split almost
50/50. If it happens, most likely timing appears ~21-23Z. Otherwise,
guidance also somewhat split on wind gust potential, with current
models showing ~30% chance to see some gusts in excess of 20 kts.
Lighter southerly winds anticipated to redevelop ~02-04z thereafter.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Conditions at area terminals
anticipated to prevail at VFR levels, with a general mix of
mid/upper cloud cover especially at southern terminals. For winds,
expect most sites to follow a somewhat typical diurnal pattern,
though with a bit of a southwesterly component favored to mix in at
times. If some deeper mixing occurs during the afternoon, will
likely see some modest wind gusts (~17-25 kts or so) also develop.
Lighter winds more likely to return by late evening as thermal
mixing decreases.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
     UTZ103-104-107-109.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday
     for UTZ105-106-118.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
     UTZ108.

     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
     UTZ110-112-113.

     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Monday to 11 PM MST Tuesday for
     UTZ111.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for UTZ115-
     116-122.

     Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
     UTZ117.

     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for UTZ120.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday
     for UTZ125.

WY...Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
     WYZ021.

&&

ADeSmet/Warthen

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity