Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
354 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A drier airmass will gradually spread into the area
through Tuesday. Another monsoon surge is expected Wednesday into
the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday)...The persistent upper level
ridge remains in place across the Four Corners region. Moist,
southwest flow continues across the western periphery, though
precipitable water values have fallen over yesterday's values, now
around 125-150% of normal, rather than 150-200% of normal.

With SBCAPE values near 1000-2000 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis
juxtaposed over deep layer shear near 35-40kts or so across much
of northern and central Utah...organized convection remains
possible into the evening. A few storms will be capable of strong
winds, small hail and of course heavy rain.

The ridge will flatten slightly Tuesday...bringing even drier air
into much of the state and suppressing the threat of heavy rain to
the far south. This will be temporary however...as PWs once again
surge to 125-150% of normal, mainly east of I-15, by 12Z Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday), Issued 428 AM MDT... At the
beginning on the long-term period, Utah will be in broad
southwesterly flow ahead of mean troughing over the northwestern
US, with a strengthening closed low moving southward along the BC
coast. This low is likely to move inland into the northern Great
Basin, bringing a transition to cooler, drier weather this weekend
as it slides just to our northwest.

But for now, persistent monsoonal moisture is expected through at
least Friday, mainly across southern and eastern Utah. Thus, a
heightened flash flood risk is expected for prone areas near slot
canyons and areas near recent burn scars. Areas north of roughly
Beaver County and west of I-15 may see isolated thunderstorms at
best.

As the closed low pushes inland late in the work week, southwesterly
winds will increase, especially across western Utah where ensemble
mean wind gusts are currently around 40-50mph on Friday. Combined
with low RH across western valleys, we will need to keep a close eye
on the possibility of critical fire weather conditions. Across
eastern areas, showers and thunderstorms may become a bit more
organized on Thursday and Friday as shear increases ahead of the
low, but details are still unclear.

Uncertainties still remain in the exact timing and track of the low,
however model guidance suggests a quick transition to cooler and
much drier weather on Saturday...especially across northern areas.
Current ensemble means for 700-mb temperatures are more akin to mid
to late September climatologically...though plenty of spread
remains, ultimately depending on the track of that low pressure
system.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...There is a roughly 20% chance for showers and
thunderstorms capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds, and locally
heavy rain through 03Z. Gusty southeast winds will prevail
through 03Z, but outflow winds could alter speed and direction.
Clouds will clear with light southeast winds through the night.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...There is roughly a 20% chance
for showers and thunderstorms capable of gusty, erratic outflow
winds and locally heavy rain through 03Z for southwest Wyoming and
northern Utah. Largely dry conditions are likely throughout southern
Utah. Clouds will diminish throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah for
overnight, with isolated showers and thunderstorms for southwest
Wyoming and eastern Utah by around 19Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The current monsoon surge will wane
Tuesday...with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Dry
southwesterly flow will bring localized critical fire weather
conditions west of I-15 Wednesday through Friday, with another
monsoon surge for areas east of I-15.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

Kruse/Cunningham/Wilson

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

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