Tornado Warning 6, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
604 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Early this morning, a cold front continues to push south across far
southern portions of he area and will exit the I-10 corridor before
daybreak. A few thunderstorms managed to develop just behind the
front over eastern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland just
before midnight, with even a severe storm that produced golfball
size hail near Ballinger. Those storms have since weakened and moved
off to the east. Latest CAMS continue to show additional showers and
storms developing along and just north of the front over southern
sections between 4 and 6 AM, as moisture is lifted up and over the
frontal boundary. This activity will also likely be aided by a weak
disturbance lifting north across the area. Convection is expected to
spread north through the morning hours, with less coverage this
afternoon. Cannot rule out a strong storm or two along the I-10
corridor just north of the frontal boundary, but the better chance
for organized severe storms will remain south of the area this
afternoon. Temperatures will be considerably cooler today, with
highs ranging from the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Big
Country, to the mid and upper 60s along the I-10 corridor.

For tonight, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
over southwest portions towards daybreak Saturday, as another
disturbance moves through. Temperatures will be cooler tonight,
with overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A couple weak short waves extending from the cut off upper low in
the Southwest will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday
and Sunday...as moist air is lifted over cold air at the surface.
Rain amounts don't look high, but a few area could see a half inch
or so. There is a marginal risk of severe storms Saturday in an
areas that that clips southern Kimble and Mason counties...as GFS
MUCAPES pick up to around 800 J/KG. Best chance of storms will be
south of the region, however, with the main threat being large hail.

The eventual track of the upper low has a low degree of confidence,
but it may track across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma the middle
of next week. This would allow at a slight chance to chance of
showers to continue into midweek. Temperatures will be on the cooler
side into Wednesday, but highs warm up into the mid/upper 70s
Thursday as surface trough with west winds moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A band of Showers and thunderstorms developing along the I-10
corridor and near KBBD will move north the the I-20 corridor late
this morning. Heavy rainfall with this storm may produce brief IFR
visibilities. A few storms may produce large hail this morning
along I-10. Storm coverage will become more isolated by
afternoon, but showers and storms will again become more numerous
by the end of the taf period. MVFR ceilings may temporarily rise
to VFR this afternoon at KABI and KBBD before falling to MVFR this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  48  58  48 /  60  10  90  40
San Angelo  60  51  61  49 /  60  30  90  50
Junction    68  54  67  52 /  50  30  90  60
Brownwood   64  51  61  51 /  60  30  90  50
Sweetwater  57  48  55  48 /  70  30  90  30
Ozona       66  52  64  51 /  50  50  90  60
Brady       65  54  62  52 /  60  30  90  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
501 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-161015-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
501 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible across the area today into
tonight. A few storms may become strong, with an isolated
severe storm possible generally south of San Saba to Sonora
line today. The main hazards will be large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the weekend into
early next week. Severe storms are not expected, however, gusty
winds, small hail, brief heavy rainfall, and dangerous lightning
will be possible with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
213 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXZ066-073-139-150745-
Runnels TX-Coleman TX-Concho TX-
213 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL COLEMAN...
SOUTHEASTERN RUNNELS AND NORTHWESTERN CONCHO COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM
CDT...

At 212 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rowena, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ballinger, Hatchel, Lowake, Benoit, Rowena, The Intersection Of Us-
83 And Ranch Road 1929, Ballinger Lake, and Us-83 Near The Concho-
Runnels County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 10002 3162 10016 3192 9993 3165 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 229DEG 19KT 3162 10001

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
237 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXZ066-150800-
Runnels TX-
237 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RUNNELS COUNTY
THROUGH 300 AM CDT...

At 237 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hatchel, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winters, Hatchel, Crews, Drasco, Lake Winters Lake, and Pumphrey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 9986 3180 10009 3208 10006 3208 9972
      3200 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 207DEG 30KT 3184 9994

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MKD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
240 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXZ066-150815-
Runnels TX-
240 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUNNELS COUNTY
THROUGH 315 AM CDT...

At 240 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Us-83 Near The Concho-
Runnels County Line, or 7 miles north of Paint Rock, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Runnels County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 9972 3160 9996 3183 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0740Z 240DEG 13KT 3161 9990

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MKD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
315 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXZ066-139-150845-
Runnels TX-Coleman TX-
315 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL COLEMAN AND EAST
CENTRAL RUNNELS COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM CDT...

At 314 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 2
miles south of Talpa, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Talpa and Valera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 9973 3170 9982 3189 9960 3165 9950
TIME...MOT...LOC 0814Z 241DEG 13KT 3169 9973

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

mkd

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
513 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

TXZ076-151100-
Crockett TX-
513 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY
THROUGH 600 AM CDT...

At 513 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
The Intersection Of Ranch Road 2083 And Highway 405, or 20 miles
southwest of Ozona, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ozona, The Intersection Of Ranch Road 2083 And Highway 405, The
Intersection Of I-10 And Highway 405, and The Intersection Of I-10
And Highway 290.

This includes Interstate 10 between Mile Markers 342 and 370.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3037 10135 3045 10158 3085 10158 3073 10110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1013Z 189DEG 22KT 3052 10146

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24

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