Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1055 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 124 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

Potent upper level low spinning its way east across the 4-corners
area this afternoon will be the main weather maker over the next
24 to 36 hours for West Central Texas. Ahead of the system, a weak
dryline has developed and has helped act as a catalyst for a few
thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Heartland. Some
instability ahead of the dryline has allowed for a few of the
storms to become strong and marginally severe, but these are
pushing east of the areas as of mid afternoon. Should see a bit of
a lull in the activity for late afternoon and into the early
evening time period.

Much stronger shortwave ahead of the upper low ejects across the
area tonight. Low level moisture will surge back west this
evening, meeting the lift associated with the approaching
shortwave to generate widespread showers and storms. Abundant
shear with this system and enough instability for these storms to
rapidly become strong to severe. Large hail is the main concern,
and some of the hail could be larger than golf ball size. As the
storms become more widespread damaging winds may also become a
concern. Time frame is roughly developing along the western Concho
Valley and Edwards Plateau after 10 PM and moving across the rest
of West Central Texas through sunrise Sunday morning. Fully
expect severe weather watches and warnings to be needed tonight.

Main severe weather threat pushes east in the morning, but winter
weather threat starts to develop as the upper low itself and its
deformation zone moves across West Texas. Most of the snowfall
will remain north of the area from the South Plains/Panhandle east
into the Red River area and Oklahoma. However, colder air surging
south will be dropping temperatures across the area by afternoon,
with readings in the mid 30s across the Big Country. It will be a
race between the precipitation pushing east and the falling
temperatures, but appears that areas from Fisher north into
Haskell and Throckmorton may see a quick burst of snow before the
precip ends. Have included a little snowfall accumulation across
the area for now, and will want to closely monitor the situation.
A slightly farther south track of the system could make for
heavier snow totals and more significant impacts by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

The upper level low will move off to the northeast of the Big
Country by Sunday evening. Snow will likely be falling across
portions of the Big Country in the deformation zone as it pivots
off to the northeast of the area. Looks like most of the
precipitation should taper off by around midnight although we
could have some lingering snow showers across Haskell and
Throckmorton counties. As discussed above some accumulations of
snow are possible by the end of this event especially across
northern portions of the Big Country. Have not issued any winter
weather products with this forecast package but will be monitoring
things closely and may need a winter weather advisory eventually
for portions of the Big Country come tomorrow afternoon.

The rest of the forecast looks quiet. Shortwave ridging builds in
over our area by midweek with quiet conditions across the Plains.
Temperatures will warm into the 60s for Tuesday through Friday.
Our next chance of rain comes on Friday as an upper level trough
is progged to eject eastward out of northern Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

A line of thunderstorms is moving in from the west and will be
affecting KABI and KSJT soon. The line will progress eastward
throughout the night, moving out of our area by the early morning.
Winds could be erratic and gusty when the storms move through. IFR
and LIFR CIGs are present across most of the TAF sites and will
persist overnight. CIGs are expected to lift to MVFR for most of our
TAF sites, excluding Abilene, by the late morning to early
afternoon. Winds will increase in the morning as well, with gusts of
30 mph possible. Gusty winds and low clouds are expected to continue
into Sunday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     43  45  31  55 / 100  70  20   0
San Angelo  47  50  32  59 /  90  10   0   0
Junction    51  58  33  60 /  80  10   0   0
Brownwood   49  50  34  56 / 100  70  10   0
Sweetwater  39  40  31  54 /  90  70  20   0
Ozona       46  55  31  59 /  80   0   0   0
Brady       50  52  35  56 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...AP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
228 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-112030-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
228 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of West Central
Texas late tonight and into the early morning hours as a strong
upper level storm system approaches. Large hail perhaps larger
than golf ball size, will be the primary severe threat, but
damaging winds greater than 60 mph and even an isolated tornado
are also possible. In addition, the storms may track across the
same area repeatedly and increase the risk of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

As the main storm system pushes across the area on Sunday and
Sunday night, an area of snow is possible across the Big Country.
Portions of the northern Big Country may see some accumulation,
although impacts are expected to be limited right now. Should the
system track farther south, than the threat of accumulating
snowfall may need to be brought farther south as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested tonight across much of West
Central Texas.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1047 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

TXZ099-114-110515-
Throckmorton TX-Shackelford TX-
1047 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SHACKELFORD AND
SOUTHWESTERN THROCKMORTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM CST...

At 1046 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Big Country Baptist Assembly, or near Lueders, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Albany and Big Country Baptist Assembly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in San Angelo.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3302 9931 3271 9919 3265 9956 3278 9961
      3286 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 256DEG 34KT 3281 9954

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TP

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