Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
548 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight. We are
expecting two different rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms,
with the first beginning to develop across the Big Country early
this afternoon. A dryline is located west of our area, with an
increasingly unstable environment across much of the forecast area. A
few storms are beginning to develop across the Big Country and
across the South Plains region. The CAMS indicate that this activity
will continue to increase in coverage across the Big Country through
the afternoon hours, and this seems reasonable. Any storms that do
develop will likely quickly become strong to severe. The main
concerns with these storms will be very large, damaging winds, and
tornadoes.

A second, more widespread, round of strong to severe thunderstorms
is expected late tonight and into the early morning hours Sunday. A
Pacific cold front is forecast to approach the region from the west
late this evening and eventually collide with the dryline. The lift
from this collision along with upper level support as an upper level
trough approaches should result in the rapid development of
thunderstorms just west of our area between 8 PM and 10 PM. This
activity is then forecast to slowly spread east across the region
through the overnight hours. The development of a QLCS is possible,
and very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible with
this line. Most of this activity should be east of the region by
sunrise. In addition, locally heavy rain will be possible,
especially across our eastern counties, and flooding is possible
within any thunderstorms, especially on roadways and low lying areas.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to near 60, with highs on
Sunday in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Active weather pattern continues next week, with afternoon and
evening dry-line thunderstorm activity possible across portions of
the forecast area most days. Storms could be strong to severe at
times. Temperatures will continue to be warm, with highs in the mid
80s to low 90s most days.

Zonal flow aloft and subsidence behind a departing short-wave Monday
will result in mostly dry conditions that day. Strengthening of the
850 mb thermal ridge will result in warmer temperatures, with highs
Monday in the mid 80s to low 90s. Southwest flow aloft returns
Tuesday through Thursday as another low pressure system moves into
the Pacific Northwest and makes its way through the Central Plains.
Each day, Tuesday through Thursday, some afternoon/evening strong to
severe thunderstorm activity could occur off the dry-line (which
looks to set-up close to, or across, our western counties) as
multiple short-waves move up in the southwest flow aloft. Depending
on exact placement of the dry-line, strength of the capping
inversion, amount on instability, and strength of the short-waves,
storms could impact portions of our forecast area each
afternoon/evening. Highs each day look to continue in the mid 80s to
low 90s range.

Friday, a cold front looks to move down at some point. Earlier
timing would result in a dry day, while later timing could result in
more thunderstorms activity for Friday. A deeper, slower upper level
low will move into the Western CONUS next weekend, putting us again
in southwest flow aloft, with the potential for more
afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The main concern at all TAF sites is a line of thunderstorms that
will move through the region overnight, developing by 03Z. Some
MVFR ceilings are possible before the storms arrive. Once storms
have moved past each airfield, ceilings and winds could be quite
variable in the immediate wake of the line. Otherwise, conditions
should be much better after 12Z tomorrow area-wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     57  82  55  87 /  80   0   0   0
San Angelo  57  85  54  91 /  80   0   0   0
Junction    59  87  57  92 /  90  20   0   0
Brownwood   58  83  56  86 /  90  10   0   0
Sweetwater  57  82  57  88 /  60   0   0   0
Ozona       56  84  56  88 /  80   0   0   0
Brady       59  82  58  86 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....SJH
AVIATION...SK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
133 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-281845-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
133 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is moderate risk of severe thunderstorms across Throckmorton
county, an enhanced risk generally east of a Haskell to Brownwood
line, and a slight risk across much of the remainder of West
Central Texas today into tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly across the Big Country,
this afternoon and early evening. More widespread strong to severe
storms are possible late this evening into the early morning hours
Sunday as a line of storms move through the region. Large to very
large hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes are all possible.
Some of the tornadoes may be strong, especially in the moderate
and enhanced risk areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
822 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     Hail             1 S Champion            32.34N 100.62W
04/27/2024  M1.00 Inch       Nolan              TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
823 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Hail             Rotan                   32.86N 100.46W
04/27/2024  E1.00 Inch       Fisher             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
824 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     Hail             Rule                    33.19N 99.90W
04/27/2024  E1.25 Inch       Haskell            TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
904 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

TXZ054-280230-
Nolan TX-
904 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NOLAN COUNTY
THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 904 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Sweetwater, or near Sweetwater, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Sweetwater.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 250 and 259.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for west central
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 10015 3238 10042 3252 10030 3252 10016
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 248DEG 26KT 3243 10033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
917 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     Hail             1 SE Sweetwater         32.46N 100.39W
04/27/2024  E1.00 Inch       Nolan              TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
928 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     Hail             Sagerton                33.08N 99.96W
04/27/2024  M1.75 Inch       Haskell            TX   Law Enforcement

            Sherriff's Office (Haskell County) reports
            golfball size hail at 8:55 PM CDT.

&&