Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
235 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this evening into the
    overnight hours across much of West Central Texas.

  - Rain chances through Friday night. Localized flooding possible
    tonight into Friday. A Flood Watch is in effect for the Big
    Country and western Concho Valley.

  - Cooler through Saturday, then warmer and dry Monday into
    Tuesday before the approach of the next cold front on
    Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...Severe storms likely tonight. Localized flooding likely
tonight into Friday afternoon...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms developed in the Big Country
earlier this afternoon...where a weak cold front extended south of I-
20, in the hills south of Abilene and Sweetwater. The storms have
since moved northeast of the area. While there has been a break in
storm activity...temperatures have risen into the lower 80s in
the Concho Valley and areas southward. This will provide
additional instability for storms tonight. Surface based CAPES at
2 PM CST south of the cold front were fairly high in the 1500 to
2000 J/KG range. Most Unstable CAPES were 1000 to 1500 J/KG, north
of the front in the Big Country. Effective bulk shears were also
moderately high in the 45-50 KT range and should allow the
development of severe storms.

As an upper low moves east across southern Mexico, bringing
additional instability, numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop, beginning late afternoon and evening. Large
hail possible, particularly in the Concho Valley into the Big
Country, Localized flooding is also likely as precipitable water
values rise over 1.5 inches. A Pacific front later will move
slowly eastward across the region midnight through mid afternoon,
providing an additional focus for shower and thunderstorm
development.

Heavy general rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches possible, with 3 to
4 inches across the Big Country. A few areas could see 5 inches or
more inches, particularly as storms train from north to south,
along the Pacific front, in the midnight to noon Friday time
period. A flash flood watch has already been issued for the Big
Country and Concho Valley for tonight starting at 6 PM tonight and
continuing through 3 PM CST Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Rain chances will weaken Friday evening as the upper low continues
to move east and goes north of our area. Much drier air will be
brought in as the low moves off to the northeast, clearing skies and
ending rain chances. Temperatures will gradually increase for Sunday
and the first part of next week, as winds switch back to the south
and upper level ridging starts to build. A cold front is expected
some time on Wednesday, however the timing and strength of the
front is still uncertain. Models bring the front through anytime
between Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening, which will have
an impact on Wednesday's high temperatures and rain chances.
Right now, we're going with highs in the middle of the model
solutions and low PoPs, but we'll get a better idea on the timing
and strength of the front as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this
afternoon, occasionally moving over the terminals, especially
KABI, KSJT, and KBBD. Mainly MVFR stratus is expected, but brief
IFR visibilities expected in heavy rain. Late tonight, early
Friday morning, a more extensive band of thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall will move through, bringing IFR ceilings and visibilities
through the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  69  42  69 / 100  90  20   0
San Angelo  58  69  41  71 /  80  90  10   0
Junction    61  71  44  72 /  50  80  20   0
Brownwood   64  70  45  70 /  80  90  30   0
Sweetwater  60  67  43  69 / 100  90  10   0
Ozona       54  67  42  71 /  90  80  10   0
Brady       63  70  45  69 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Friday afternoon
for Callahan-Coke-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-
Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...04