Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
303 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Active weather day this afternoon across our northwest half as
ample instability is combining with a very moist atmosphere and
upstream forcing from remnant MCV and associated outflow boundary
to produce locally heavy downpours mainly near and northwest of
the I-30 Corridor. After coordinating with WPC along with
neighboring offices to the west and north, have decided to issue a
Flood Watch with this afternoon's package to encompass the
northern half of NE TX along the I-20 Corridor and to include
Southeast Oklahoma and the western third of SW AR as well with the
watch valid through 7 pm tomorrow evening.

The players for this event are the above mentioned disturbance
moving our way in WNW flow aloft and latest progs and CAMS are in
good agreement with another disturbance to follow this one, moving
out of the Upper Red River Valley, moving into the Middle Red
River Valley and Piney Woods of NE TX after midnight towards
sunrise Friday morning, bringing with it additional heavy
rainfall. Could easily see two to four inches of rainfall with
isolated higher amounts and depending on how much our region sees
with this first round of convection through much of the evening,
would not be surprised if the Flood Watch may have to be expanded
further east and south to encompass more of SW AR, NE TX and maybe
even NW LA. What's not very clear with this forecast is how this
current disturbance will influence the size and intensity of the
convection associated with the second disturbance by the time it
begins moving into our region near or shortly before sunrise on
Friday and thus, this will be addressed with future forecasts.

Progs are really all over the place on the handling of the above
mentioned features but this forecast will follow the HREF which
shows a break in the storm coverage beyond Friday Morning across
the Flood Watch area with diurnal heating across our remaining
area helping to ignite scattered to numerous areas of convection
downstream of our current Flood Watch for Friday Afternoon.

Not to be forgotten is the wind and hail threats for the remainder
of the afternoon and evening as the southern half of NE TX has
become very unstable this afternoon and the broken line of
convection near the I-20 Corridor of N TX west of TYR will dive
southeast with a cold pool progressing southeast and will thus
pose at least a severe wind threat. Thus, Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #353 is valid through 9PM this evening.

Thanks for the coordination today FWD, TSA, LZK, WPC and
SPC...prelims to follow...13.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Did not make much in the way of changes to the weekend and early
portion of next week forecast. There continues to be weak
disturbances embedded in west northwest flow aloft, one that will
likely begin impacting our region late Saturday and continue into
Sunday. Beyond the weekend, what weak ridging we had to deal with
is all but exited our region to the east with additional ridging
aloft progd to build north of the Tx Hill Country into the
Intermountain West. This will only serve to further enhance
northwest flow aloft across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley
and as a result, this flow could bring with it additional
thunderstorm chances through at least the middle part of next
week. Sided with the NBM for now with slight chance to low end
chance pops until disturbances in this flow can become better
defined.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

For the 30/18z TAFS...A very challenging next 24 hours for TAFS.
Generally a mix of VFR and MVFR at sites currently. However,
showers and thunderstorms are starting to form across the region,
which will contribute to lower flight conditions. Models are
having trouble pinpointing the expected convection throughout the
TAF period, so decided to go with VCTS, because some convection
is expected. Low cigs will build into the region overnight, with
possibly some patchy fog. Expect additional convection by the end
of the period. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  85  71  85 /  50  60  50  60
MLU  70  84  69  84 /  40  70  50  60
DEQ  66  79  65  84 /  70  60  40  50
TXK  69  82  68  85 /  60  60  40  50
ELD  67  82  67  83 /  50  70  50  60
TYR  69  82  71  85 /  60  60  20  60
GGG  70  83  70  84 /  60  60  30  60
LFK  70  85  72  86 /  50  70  40  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Friday evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
344 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

TXZ124-125-136-137-311100-
Wood-Upshur-Smith-Gregg-
344 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM CDT this evening.
A Flood Watch is in effect through Friday evening.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected today across the
ArkLaTex late this afternoon into the evening hours. Some strong
storms could be severe. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
primary threats, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall could result in a threat for flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A Flood Watch is in effect through Friday evening.

Some storms may be severe on Friday with locally heavy rain,
damaging winds, large hail, and possibly an isolated tornado threat.
Otherwise, periods of showers and thunderstorms producing locally
heavy rainfall will be possible each day through the middle of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and into this
evening.

TXZ149-150-152-165-311100-
Cherokee-Rusk-Nacogdoches-Angelina-
344 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east Texas and northeast
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM CDT this evening.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected today across the
ArkLaTex late this afternoon into the evening hours. Some strong
storms could be severe. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
primary threats, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Some storms may be severe on Friday with locally heavy rain,
damaging winds, large hail, and possibly an isolated tornado threat.
Otherwise, periods of showers and thunderstorms producing locally
heavy rainfall will be possible each day through the middle of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and into this
evening.

ARZ050-051-059-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-126-138-311100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Miller-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-
Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Marion-Harrison-
344 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas, southeast
Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Flood Watch is in effect through Friday evening.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected today across the
ArkLaTex late this afternoon into the evening hours. Some strong
storms may produce gusty winds and small hail. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall could result in a threat for flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A Flood Watch is in effect through Friday evening.

Some storms may be severe on Friday with locally heavy rain,
damaging winds, large hail, and possibly an isolated tornado threat.
Otherwise, periods of showers and thunderstorms producing locally
heavy rainfall will be possible each day through the middle of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

ARZ060-061-071>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ151-153-166-167-
311100-
Hempstead-Nevada-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-
Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-
Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Panola-Shelby-
San Augustine-
344 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected today across the
ArkLaTex late this afternoon into the evening hours. Some strong
storms with gusty winds may be possible with heavy rainfall leading
to localized street flooding in some storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Some storms may be severe on Friday with locally heavy rain,
damaging winds, large hail, and possibly an isolated tornado threat.
Otherwise, periods of showers and thunderstorms producing locally
heavy rainfall will be possible each day through the middle of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
314 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

TXZ111-112-126-302045-
Cass TX-Marion TX-Morris TX-
314 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MARION...
SOUTHWESTERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM
CDT...

At 314 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lone Star, or 21 miles east of Pittsburg, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hughes Springs, Lone Star, Jenkins, and Avinger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 9465 3295 9472 3307 9447 3284 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 261DEG 13KT 3290 9462

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

53

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
326 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

TXZ138-302100-
Harrison TX-
326 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 325 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Marshall, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Scottsville, Darco, and Nesbitt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3264 9430 3241 9420 3239 9449 3239 9450
      3240 9450 3251 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 250DEG 16KT 3246 9445

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
336 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

ARZ050-051-059-302100-
Howard AR-Sevier AR-Little River AR-
336 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LITTLE RIVER...
SOUTHERN SEVIER AND SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
CDT...

At 335 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winthrop, or 10 miles northeast of Foreman, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
De Queen, Ashdown, Nashville, Mineral Springs, Horatio, Lockesburg,
Wilton, Tollette, Winthrop, Ben Lomond, Oak Grove, Silver Ridge,
Geneva, Central, Browntown, and Bellview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3392 9383 3386 9383 3368 9413 3377 9447
      3409 9434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 227DEG 32KT 3381 9426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

53

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
409 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

TXZ124-136-302145-
Smith TX-Wood TX-
409 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SMITH AND
SOUTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 408 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lindale, or 13 miles south of Mineola, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lindale, Red Springs, and Carroll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 9525 3244 9519 3236 9545 3237 9546
      3237 9547 3239 9550 3242 9551 3243 9554
      3245 9555 3248 9559 3254 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 269DEG 11KT 3247 9549

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

53

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