Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
540 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

At 20z, a cold front was still northwest of the area across North
Central Texas, into Southern Oklahoma, Northwest Arkansas, and
Southern Missouri. Scattered convection has been gradually
increasing in coverage and intensity during the last couple of
hours. Some lightning has recently been observed in Southwest
Arkansas. Latest mesoanalysis. indicates SBCAPE values in excess
of 2500 J/kg in Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and extreme
Southwest Arkansas. Despite the ample instability, the primary
limiting factor appears to be only meager deep layer shear. A
couple of isolated severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging
winds and large hail cannot be ruled out this evening.

Current thinking is that the showers and thunderstorms should
become better focused along the advancing frontal boundary this
evening. A surface low and a weak mid-level trough may also
provide some increased vertical ascent for convective development.
The front's progress southward will slow this evening and should
stall early Tuesday morning. This should keep the highest rain
chances mainly north of a line from Tyler TX to El Dorado AR. As
the front slows, this may result in some training of convection
along and south of Interstate 30 tonight. However, a widespread
flooding threat is not anticipated.

The front will lift back northward during the day Tuesday, rain
chances in the forecast, especially across Northeast Texas,
Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. A much stronger upper
trough will begin to dive southeast through the Plains, which will
drive a stronger cold front towards the area. Much more widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across the region
ahead of the front Tuesday night and into early Wednesday.

With the front lifting north on Tuesday, most of the forecast
area will be quite warm again. Daytime high temperatures should
warm well into the 70s for most locations south of I-30. Portions
of Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas may struggle into the
low 60s as the warm front won't lift north of those locations
until late in the day Tuesday.

Nuttall

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

The aforementioned upper trough and cold front will sweep
southeast and across the forecast area during the day Wednesday.
Severe weather is not currently anticipated, but some of the
storms could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours along the
frontal boundary. The front will be rather progressive, and the
precip should quickly diminish from northwest to southeast
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Once the precip exits the area,
no other significant rain chances are expected until at least next
Monday.

The big story in the long-term period will be the surge of cold
air that filters into the area behind the departing front late
Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures are only expected to be in
the 30s and 40s with afternoon highs in the 50s to near 60
degrees F on Thursday and Friday morning. Another cold front is
expected to bring a reinforcing shot of cold air into the region
as a Canadian surface ridge builds southward into the Plains.
Widespread sub-freezing temperatures are expected Friday
night/Saturday morning. Temps should slowly moderate late in the
weekend as low-level southerly flow and warm air advection
gradually returns.

Nuttall

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

A lingering frontal boundary across the region will allow for
persistent convection through this evening across GGG/TXK/ELD
terminal sites expanding to all I-20 terminals overnight. VFR
conditions to become IFR by 17/12Z with improvement to VFR by
17/18Z. Otherwise, light south winds tonight to become southwest
and increase to 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday./05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Spotter activation may be necessary later this afternoon and into
this evening across portions of Northeast Texas, Southeast
Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  76  61  67 /  50  30  40  70
MLU  62  75  59  69 /  50  20  20  60
DEQ  52  63  50  59 /  40  40  80  30
TXK  58  70  56  64 /  60  40  70  50
ELD  58  71  57  66 /  60  30  60  60
TYR  62  75  58  64 /  50  20  50  50
GGG  61  76  58  66 /  50  30  50  60
LFK  63  76  61  70 /  20  20  10  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...05

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