Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
646 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

Temperature recovery was quick in the wake of the big eclipse as
the radiative aspect of heating was pretty much left intact from
the warmed ground. Current readings are in the upper 70s and lower
80s for the most part with some cooler "rain showered-on" sites
in the lower 70s. Prevailing winds are E/SE giving rise to our
Tornado threat with low levels SE up to 3kft and then veering
around to SW flow by 6-7kft. Looking at our 19Z balloon ascent,
Dcape is over 1000J/kg with some mid level dry air 700-500mb and
damaging winds possible along with hail and tornadoes with the
current watch until 8pm.

This first big wave will be shifting northward along with our
warm front, but exactly how far will be pivotal for new
development. Generally, we are looking for higher rain totals by
morning north of I-20. Then, the cold front will take a swing at
making more heavy weather for us to contend with through the
balance of the short term. The SPC Enhanced/Slight Risks
continue for storms again tomorrow and even part of early
Wednesday for our Parishes. As time goes by and we saturate the
air and ground, the flooding threat will likely become the
dominant threat into Wednesday. The WPC has the Moderate Risk for
excessive rainfall outlooked right over the heart of our Four-
State area tomorrow am through early Wednesday. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

We are pretty much right with NBM numbers across the board short
and long terms, under all these clouds and eventually our
southerly flow off the Gulf will shut off late Wednesday as the
core low swings overhead of our I-30 corridor. Good agreement on
GFS and ECMWF. And we can expect mild Gulf air temps to continue
with the wettest weather and then the cold front shifting the
winds to NW will wrap things up for us during the afternoon hours
on Wednesday turning cooler.

Look for morning lows to drop back into the 50s by Thursday under
still mostly cloudy skies through the night. And then 40s by
Friday with high pressure, light winds and fair skies, but quickly
warming back from there over the weekend. Meanwhile, our high
temps will be cooler and near average in the low to mid 70s for
Thursday with brisk NW winds continuing. However, sunshine and
lighter winds allow the 80s to creep back northward even before
the weekend. Area wide this weekend highs will see low to mid 80s
for most locales with dry weather lasting into next week. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

A weak surface boundary across the region combined with a series
of upper-level disturbances will maintain an unstable airmass that
will support periods of widespread TSRA conditions through the
forecast period ending 10/00Z. Additionally, ceilings are forecast
to become IFR/LIFR through the overnight hours before gradually
improving to MVFR throughout Tuesday. Otherwise, south to
southeast winds 10 knots tonight to become 10 to 15 knots on
Tuesday. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  76  66  77 / 100  80 100  90
MLU  64  78  65  76 / 100  80  90 100
DEQ  60  69  59  70 / 100 100  90  90
TXK  63  71  63  72 / 100 100 100  90
ELD  61  72  62  73 / 100  90 100 100
TYR  64  73  64  74 / 100  90  90  80
GGG  65  75  64  76 / 100  90  90  80
LFK  66  80  65  78 /  80  70  90  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
556 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-091200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
556 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
today through tonight with some of these possibly becoming strong to
severe. Large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the
main threats, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well.
Excessive heavy rainfall will begin this afternoon across portions of
the region with this threat becoming widespread overnight tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Excessive heavy rainfall will continue to be a very concerning threat
with possible widespread flooding across portions of the Four State
Region Tuesday into Wednesday. In addition, there will continue to a
severe weather threat across much of the region through Wednesday as
well with large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes possible. The rainfall should taper off Wednesday Night
from west to east across the region but area waterways will likely
see possible significant rises with crests not expected until the
upcoming weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be possible as early as this afternoon.

13

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