Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
343 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Clusters of strong to severe convection are starting to move east
into the area from North Texas and northward from Southeast
Texas/Southern Louisiana. Some of the storms in North Texas have
had a history of damaging downburst winds and large hail.
Therefore, Severe Thunderstorm Watch #367 has been issued through
02z (9 PM CDT) this evening. CAPE values have risen to between
2000-3000 J/kg, so there should be plenty of instability to
sustain these storms into at least the early evening before they
begin to gradually diminish per the latest CAMs. PoPs were
increased for this afternoon and this evening to account for the
convection.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Cumulus field continues to increase this afternoon across the Four
State Region as diurnally driven sfc instability evolves ahead of
expected showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Upper
forcing, as a result of a shortwave trough axis, is working east
into the Ark-La-Tex and will do so through the evening. The combo
of the aforementioned shortwave from the west and outflow
response from convection firing along a stalled boundary across
the Louisiana coastline will support showers and thunderstorms.
Still some uncertainty surrounding the evolution and maturity of
what does develop, but radar returns from KSHV, KLCH and KFWS
showcase convective initiation ongoing across central and east
Texas, along with southern Louisiana, indicating that instability
parameters have been conducive for thunderstorm initiation, and
possible downstream coverage. At this time, not ruling out the
chance for a severe thunderstorm or two, posing the threats of
damaging wind and large hail. Given recent events within this very
unpredictable NW flow regime, this will be worth monitoring
through the late afternoon.

Following convection this evening, conditions should fair calmer for
the remainder of the night as low temperatures fall into the low
70's. Elected to include the chance for some patchy fog through
sunrise given the close T/Td relations projected following
convective probs. Sunday will again follow a very warm theme as
highs climb easily into the upper 80's to near 90 deg F.

In terms of PoPs, hi-res CAMs and HREF solutions this afternoon have
tossed and turned at the idea of diurnally driven convection and
therefore chance PoPs have been added for the CWA. A D2 Marginal
Risk is present on the Storm Prediction Center SWO, but only
clipping portions of Deep East Texas. That being said though,
General Thunder is present everywhere else for pop-up showers and
storms. Again, given the pattern in place, can not rule out the
chance for a strong to severe storm with what may develop. As a
result, be sure to stay tuned to the forecast for any changes to
the SWO.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The long term pattern, starting Monday, is a story of heat and
some "currently" low end precip chances. As the upper trough to
the east departs, weak ridging looks to fill in it's place to
start, supporting increasing MaxT's through the upcoming week,
with temperatures gradually climbing with each day before maxing
out Thursday afternoon. During the period, can not rule out some
afternoon showers and thunderstorms given diurnally driven
instability and the chance for outflow driven convective
initiation. Guidance does point towards some small shortwaves
within the mid-level flow by mid-week which could support some
better coverage of PoPs if trends continue.

By the end of the period, a cold front will attempt to work into the
region, again supporting the chance for PoPs across the zones.
How this boundary is impacted by the guidance advertised ridge
pattern to the west will dictate how the boundary passage works
out. For now though, signs point towards brief relief from temps
climbing any higher than currently advertised.

Given the discussion surrounding the increase in high temps back to
the middle 90's, higher dew point progression through the week will
support an increase in heat index values back towards the triple
digits. While no heat products are needed at this time, this will be
closely monitored in the coming days.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

mostly low VFR ceilings or VFR conditions will prevail through
much of the remainder of the day across our terminal airspace.
Followed the HRRR closely when it comes to the introduction of
VCTS and TEMPO TSRA groups along and south of the I-20 Corridor
late this afternoon into the evening hours with the possibility of
convection coming northward from SE TX. Time/Height Cross Sections
support a return to MVFR or IFR ceilings pre-sunrise across all
but the TXK/ELD terminals as well as MVFR VSBYS with IFR ceilings
becoming MVFR by late morning on Sunday. Winds will mostly be
light and variable today outside of convection, becoming
southeasterly late tonight through the first half of Sunday.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  90  73  91 /  40  30   0  20
MLU  69  89  72  90 /  40  30   0  20
DEQ  66  88  70  86 /  10  30  10  40
TXK  70  90  73  90 /  10  30  10  30
ELD  66  89  70  89 /  10  30   0  30
TYR  71  89  73  89 /  20  30  10  30
GGG  70  90  72  89 /  30  30  10  30
LFK  71  90  74  90 /  40  40   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...13

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